Current Radar or Satellite Image

Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane Center - 25 Years Tracking StormsHurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995


Struggling Beta and now former Alpha that formed but then poofed over Portugal begin the Greek Alphabeta with weaker storms, so far
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 7 (Sally) , Major: 27 (Laura) Florida - Any: 713 (Michael) Major: 713 (Michael)
34.8N 20.0W
Wind: 40MPH
Pres: 1006mb
Moving:
E at 12 mph
Click for Storm Spotlight
44.8N 62.3W
Wind: 65MPH
Pres: 963mb
Moving:
Nne at 23 mph
Click for Storm Spotlight
29.5N 95.0W
Wind: 30MPH
Pres: 1007mb
Moving:
Ene at 9 mph
Click for Storm Spotlight
COMMUNICATION
STORM DATA
CONTENT
FOLLOW US
ADS
Login to remove ads

 


Archives 2010s >> 2012 Forecast Lounge

Jump to first unread post. Pages: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | >> (show all)
mcgowanmc
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sun
Posts: 96
Loc: NW ARKANSAS
Re: Tropical Storm Isaac Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #93466 - Fri Aug 24 2012 10:10 AM

Thanx Mike.

The info I was looking for.

An Ex.

An ECMWF run at 0z and 12Z
will be initiated at 8pm and 8am EDT.

So I should look for the Latest approx
3 1/2 to 4 hrs later around 4z(Midnite) and 16z(Noon EDT).

And the animated NHC tracs is exactly what I was looking for.

The latest has Isaac being 'attracted' to SW Haiti now.
With All the changes made in the last 3 days,
the only constant from the Non ECMWF models is that Isaac
seems determined to go over as much of the Greater Antilles as possible.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 984
Loc: parrish,fl
Re: Tropical Storm Isaac Forecast Lounge [Re: TXEB]
      #93470 - Fri Aug 24 2012 11:02 AM

Not wishing to be argumentative, but I have correctly located the now dominant center. If Isaac can continue to to allow convection to be pulled around this center, which the last two hours or so has demonstrated is occurring...some rapid intensification i.e. approaching 70kts could occur simply because so much of this system is over the water and not being interdicted by land interaction...yet.

--------------------
doug


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser


Reged: Tue
Posts: 826
Loc: Puerto Morelos,Mx
Re: Tropical Storm Isaac Forecast Lounge [Re: doug]
      #93471 - Fri Aug 24 2012 11:29 AM

As I have seen many times over the years interaction with land not only weakens a system but can also change it's direction from a forecast track.I just find it hard to believe that it will stay on the straight line over Cuba.Given how close it will be to all of South Florida where ever it comes off the north coast of Cuba and the very warm water between Cuba and S. Florida it needs to be watched VERY closely by people on both sides of S.Florida. So for me all bets are off on the track and intensity until it comes off Cuba most likely on Sunday.

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 4336
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Tropical Storm Isaac Forecast Lounge [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #93472 - Fri Aug 24 2012 11:49 AM

Won't have much time to update this afternoon, but GFS is right on 12Z, this time landfall Miami area Sunday night around 8PM. Seems a bit too far east this run?

After that it drifts westward over southwest Florida into the Gulf out around Ft. Myers Monday around 8AM. (model Run has not ended yet, so more to come)

But still worth watching to see what type of motion Isaac does today.

Will be back on much more tonight.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Tazmanian93
Weather Master


Reged: Sun
Posts: 487
Loc: Tampa
Re: Tropical Storm Isaac Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #93473 - Fri Aug 24 2012 11:51 AM

Hasn't the GFS been fairly consistent with it's forecast track for Isaac since it's birth?

--------------------
Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.

Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!

****************

Ed


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
OrlandoDan
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 402
Loc: Longwood, FL
Re: Tropical Storm Isaac Forecast Lounge [Re: mcgowanmc]
      #93474 - Fri Aug 24 2012 11:52 AM

Not positive, but looking at the WV loop as of 11:51 EDT, it looks like he is starting to wrap but losing the deep convection to the SW and S. Anyone disagree?

--------------------
Keith (1988), Charley (2004), Frances (2004) , Jeanne (2004), Fay (2008), Mathew (2016), Irma (2017), Dorian (2019)

Personal Weather Station: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KFLLONGW67


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
CaneTrackerInSoFl
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 395
Loc:
Re: Tropical Storm Isaac Forecast Lounge [Re: Tazmanian93]
      #93475 - Fri Aug 24 2012 11:53 AM

Yeah. It and the Euro have been by far the most consistent when dealing with Isaac in terms of their model-to-model runs. GFS has continually floated between Miami and the Keys, so not too much difference in terms of weather.

--------------------
Andrew 1992, Irene 1999, Katrina 2005, Wilma 2005



Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
CaneTrackerInSoFl
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 395
Loc:
Re: Tropical Storm Isaac Forecast Lounge [Re: OrlandoDan]
      #93478 - Fri Aug 24 2012 11:56 AM

There is some warming but that is too be expected during the daytime. I wouldn't call it a weakening necessarily but what is more worrisome is the fact that the thunderstorms are continuing to make inroads to the northeast and north of the LLC now.

--------------------
Andrew 1992, Irene 1999, Katrina 2005, Wilma 2005



Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
TXEB
Weather Watcher


Reged: Thu
Posts: 30
Loc: Lake Jackson, TX
Re: Tropical Storm Isaac Forecast Lounge [Re: doug]
      #93479 - Fri Aug 24 2012 11:58 AM

Isaac long floater imagery over the past 3 hours appears to be showing some evening in the convection that has been largely displaced to the SW of NHC positions over the past 24 hours. As best I can see, the apparent COC is just about on the forecast track line, but SE of where linear time interpolation of forecast points should have it. It also appears that just as convection appears to be evolving towards a more symmetrical organization, it is doing so just as the north side of Isaac begins to encounter Hispaniola's mountainous terrain.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
ralphfl
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 435
Re: Tropical Storm Isaac Forecast Lounge [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #93481 - Fri Aug 24 2012 12:24 PM

but that is why they have a cone and never say focus on the line right?

Edited by ralphfl (Fri Aug 24 2012 12:25 PM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Joeyfl
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 133
Loc: St.Pete,FL
Re: Tropical Storm Isaac Forecast Lounge [Re: TXEB]
      #93482 - Fri Aug 24 2012 12:27 PM

Quite a shift in 12Z GFS run much further east with landfall in Miami/homestead area then out near Fort Myers area then towards the western Bigbend/central Panhandle. Most models have shifted east since late last nights run. Iam sticking with my earlier forecast with it coming in near Keywest then NNW up the west coast 40 or so miles offshore then lanfall in Big Bend near or slightly west of Cedar Key. Time will tell put its looking likely that Florida is in its sights and with it possibly getting in Gulf this could blow up stronger then Cat 1.

Edited by Joeyfl (Fri Aug 24 2012 12:34 PM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser


Reged: Tue
Posts: 826
Loc: Puerto Morelos,Mx
Re: Tropical Storm Isaac Forecast Lounge [Re: Joeyfl]
      #93483 - Fri Aug 24 2012 12:32 PM

Quote:

Quite a shift in 12Z GFS run much further west with landfall in Miami/homestead area then out near Fort Myers area then towards the western Bigbend/central Panhandle. Most models have shifted west since late last nights run. Iam sticking with my earlier forecast with it coming in near Keywest then NNW up the west coast 40 or so miles offshore then lanfall in Big Bend near or slightly west of Cedar Key. Time will tell put its looking likely that Florida is in its sights and with it possibly getting in Gulf this could blow up stronger then Cat 1.




Just so there is no confusion,The GFS has shifted east not west.

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Joeyfl
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 133
Loc: St.Pete,FL
Re: Tropical Storm Isaac Forecast Lounge [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #93484 - Fri Aug 24 2012 12:35 PM

Thanks Bob for that correction I edited the my post, thank you.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
OrlandoDan
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 402
Loc: Longwood, FL
Re: Tropical Storm Isaac Forecast Lounge [Re: Joeyfl]
      #93489 - Fri Aug 24 2012 01:04 PM

Obviously and illusion (I think), but WV seems to make it look stationary with a less irregular signature, even though cloud tops have cooled a bit.

--------------------
Keith (1988), Charley (2004), Frances (2004) , Jeanne (2004), Fay (2008), Mathew (2016), Irma (2017), Dorian (2019)

Personal Weather Station: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KFLLONGW67


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser


Reged: Tue
Posts: 826
Loc: Puerto Morelos,Mx
Re: Tropical Storm Isaac Forecast Lounge [Re: OrlandoDan]
      #93496 - Fri Aug 24 2012 01:52 PM

There is clearly a break in the ridge of high pressure in the Allantic,this is what the latest model runs including the GFS model is picking up on.This puts SE Florida back into play in a real way.
My concern,IF he slows way down or even stalls after exiting Cuba it could POSSIBLE rapidly intensity.Also people in South Florida will not have much time to prepare,also we could also be getting some affects from Issac as it comes off the coast of Cuba so driving conditions could become hazardous as early as Sunday morning.
I expect the NHC track to shift east as time goes forward.

2pm update. Pressure is down to 997 MB,no change in track YET.

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


Edited by ftlaudbob (Fri Aug 24 2012 01:56 PM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser


Reged: Tue
Posts: 826
Loc: Puerto Morelos,Mx
Re: Tropical Storm Isaac Forecast Lounge [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #93497 - Fri Aug 24 2012 02:12 PM

The GFDL model latest run now has a Cat 2 Hurricane over Miami.

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
berrywr
Weather Analyst


Reged: Fri
Posts: 387
Loc: Opelika, AL
Issac & 24/12Z Upper Air Package [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #93499 - Fri Aug 24 2012 02:34 PM

Good afternoon; I'm enjoying a very much needed day off from both college and commuting and I've had a bit of time to look at the upper air charts so let's get started; last night it rained at my house and what got my attention were the movement of the cells; they were south movers. As of 24/12Z; the 500 mb upper ridge is centered over Jackson, MS, it is a 589 (decameter or 5890 meter) upper high. There are general 10 meter height falls in the entire area with height falls in advance of a 582 upper low and a progressive positive tilt shortwave trough over Eastern Nebraska, Kansas and Central Oklahoma. There is a weak 587 upper low near Houston, TX. The longwave trough that has draped the Eastern United States has moved slightly more to the east with lowest heights near Florence, SC extending through Eastern Georgia, east of Tallahassee, FL to a COL near 28N 85W in the Gulf of Mexico; heights east of the longwave trough are neutral from the previous 12 hours with the exceptions a 10 meter height fall at Jacksonville, FL and 30 meters height fall near Charleston, SC where there is a tiny cutoff low along the trough; the height fall at Charleston suggests the trough has moved a bit to the east in the past 12 hours and the mid continental ridge with two centers; one over Mississippi and the other over Northern Mexico. The Bermuda subtropical upper ridge is centered slightly west of Bermuda. A steering path for the moment boils down to whether the GFS is correct or the ECMWF with its more left track is correct. I'm aware NOAA sampled the environment around Issac for the 24/00Z model run but I see no new data on the 12Z upper charts. To date the ECMWF has performed excellent depicting where the strongest of the multiple vortices are...maybe that's pure luck; I said last night the strongest vortices are in the southwest of the broader circulation and clearly today, Issac has consolidated around that point and is much better defined today.

The $64,000 question is where Issac is going and whether Florida will be impacted. The current track suggests Issac will be over land over Cuba for a good bit of time and NHC is right; what structure will it have exiting Cuba. Issac is huge in size and Florida will be affected by both rain and possibly water pushed up ahead by moderate southerly winds on the right size of the system; I see no evidence that Issac will be a major hurricane by the time it reaches the Northern Gulf Coast. Farmers from Alabama to Central Georgia to South Carolina will welcome the rain given much is this area is in a severe to exceptional drought; particularly Central Georgia and parts of Central South Carolina; what will not welcome additional rainfall is Northern Florida and Southeastern Georgia which were impacted by Debby with an excess of two feet of rain between Tallahassee and Appalachacola (don't ask me how to spell it).

The bottom line remains how strong will the upper air players be; what upper ridge will be the strongest and which one will influence east and west the track of Issac. Clearly the general track is set with a trough between the two upper ridges.

The models have a stout 597 upper high over the Intermountain West which means blazing hot weather for them and equally stout near 594 upper ridge in the Atlantic.

I don't see this system stalling; once again it is clear what the track is; a precise point is impossible. I do have concerns about intensity but we are all going to have to wait and see what structure Issac has once in the Florida Straits; until then, it is unrealistic to predict rapid intensification or any other intensities until Issac exits Cuba.

Our thoughts and prayers go out to those in Haiti who were displaced by the earthquake who live up under tents; once the center goes by and the wet side of the storm impacts their country; like Puerto Rico today, it may be a tough weekend that lies ahead for them.

--------------------
Sincerely,

Bill Berry

"Survived Trigonometry and Calculus I"


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
ralphfl
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 435
Re: Tropical Storm Isaac Forecast Lounge [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #93500 - Fri Aug 24 2012 03:15 PM


http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2.c...;hour=Animation

Edited by ralphfl (Fri Aug 24 2012 03:34 PM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Joeyfl
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 133
Loc: St.Pete,FL
Re: Issac & 24/12Z Upper Air Package [Re: berrywr]
      #93503 - Fri Aug 24 2012 03:20 PM

Recon just found pressure 995mb in the center just south of the south central tip of the DR. I forsee changes to the track at 5pm as NHC track lies on the western edge of the guidance envelope. I would suspect about and 30-50 mile shift right to split the extremes with Euro on far left and GFS more on the right. My thinking all along of a trip through the southern keys and up the west coast offshore with landfall in the big bend. The trough is looking as through it will be just deep enough to tug Issac more to the NNW/N after getting past the keys.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
TXEB
Weather Watcher


Reged: Thu
Posts: 30
Loc: Lake Jackson, TX
Re: Issac & 24/12Z Upper Air Package [Re: Joeyfl]
      #93505 - Fri Aug 24 2012 04:07 PM

Looking at Caribbean and GOM water vapor imagery, it appears that as Isaac gets better organized, not only will it be contending with Hati and then Cuba, but also more dry air ahead. While the changes in organization and cyclonic flow over the past 8 hours have been impressive, the west side is now beginning to look a bit thin and diffuse.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Pages: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | >> (show all)



Extra information
0 registered and 1 anonymous users are browsing this forum.

Moderator:  MikeC, Ed Dunham, danielw 

Print Topic

Forum Permissions
      You cannot start new topics
      You cannot reply to topics
      HTML is disabled
      UBBCode is enabled

Rating:
Topic views: 225618

Rate this topic

Jump to

Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources. 
CFHC's main servers are currently located at
Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well. Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center