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Archives 2010s >> 2012 Forecast Lounge

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CaneTrackerInSoFl
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 395
Loc:
Re: Issac & 24/12Z Upper Air Package [Re: TXEB]
      #93506 - Fri Aug 24 2012 04:23 PM

Isaac's west is looking thin and diffuse right now, but I'm not sure if that is a function of dry air or the fact that Isaac went under a tremendous reorganization today which has cause the thunderstorms to begin wrapping around the center rather than being drained to the south and west. Can someone with more experience chime in on this?

--------------------
Andrew 1992, Irene 1999, Katrina 2005, Wilma 2005



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dolfinatic
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 126
Loc: St. Petersburg, Fl
Re: Issac & 24/12Z Upper Air Package [Re: CaneTrackerInSoFl]
      #93507 - Fri Aug 24 2012 04:32 PM

From vis sat it looks to me that it is just filtering the last of the dry air out of the system. If you look at haiti and DR you can see the mountains are already forcing updrafts and creating large storms. I would think as they rotate in it will fill in his western side. No expert just my observation.

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Prospero
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 238
Loc: Gulfport, FL
Re: Issac & 24/12Z Upper Air Package [Re: dolfinatic]
      #93509 - Fri Aug 24 2012 04:41 PM

I wonder, are there any seeding activities going on with this storm? The development and life of Isaac have been strange in my opinion.

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mcgowanmc
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sun
Posts: 96
Loc: NW ARKANSAS
Re: Tropical Storm Isaac Forecast Lounge [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #93510 - Fri Aug 24 2012 05:04 PM

The Closest analogy Storm I've found to
Isaac:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2012/graphics/al09/loop_5W.shtml

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/co...icane_track.png

The 1915 Galveston Hurricane.


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TXEB
Weather Watcher


Reged: Thu
Posts: 30
Loc: Lake Jackson, TX
Re: Tropical Storm Isaac Forecast Lounge [Re: mcgowanmc]
      #93511 - Fri Aug 24 2012 06:06 PM

Since I live about 50 miles SSW of Galveston, I feel compelled to come up with a better analog. I prefer Ernesto from 2006.

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berrywr
Weather Analyst


Reged: Fri
Posts: 387
Loc: Opelika, AL
Re: Issac & 24/12Z Upper Air Package [Re: Prospero]
      #93513 - Fri Aug 24 2012 06:12 PM

Dry Saharan Air Layer; what we call the SAL; it's dry between 600 millibars and 300 millibars and it is death to a tropical cyclone if caught up in it; thus far only a piece of it is entraining into the cyclone.

--------------------
Sincerely,

Bill Berry

"Survived Trigonometry and Calculus I"


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berrywr
Weather Analyst


Reged: Fri
Posts: 387
Loc: Opelika, AL
Re: Issac & 24/12Z Upper Air Package [Re: Prospero]
      #93514 - Fri Aug 24 2012 06:16 PM

One more thing...current motion is not NW; it's WNW and the center is now just south of track; I do believe it is now getting its act together; what I will be watching is how long over Cuba will it be and what it will look like upon exit; what storm was it that took up the entire Gulf of Mexico basin...Ike? It was a hurricane but it was a big, big system and the "eye" had only begun to contract before it hit Texas.

--------------------
Sincerely,

Bill Berry

"Survived Trigonometry and Calculus I"


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MichaelA
Weather Analyst


Reged: Thu
Posts: 887
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
Re: Issac & 24/12Z Upper Air Package [Re: berrywr]
      #93515 - Fri Aug 24 2012 06:49 PM

The effects and duration of the track across Cuba will tell us what to expect from Isaac. If the track is short, then we'll be dealing with a stronger system entering the Straights of Florida. If the center lingers over Cuba, it will become more disrupted and weaker. Once we know when and where the center emerges from Cuba and over the Straights, we'll have a much better idea of what to expect in Florida/GoM. With the models trending slightly eastward again, no one should relax and discount Isaac's future as to how it will impact Florida. Isaac, by no means, is a Charley or Katrina, but being a very large system, it will impact a very large area as it moves along during the next few days. I've nearly completed my preparations, so needed or not, I'm prepared to weather a strong TS or minimal hurricane right here at my house.

--------------------
Michael

WU PWS

2020 “guess:” 15/8/3
2020 Actual 23/8/2


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OrlandoDan
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 402
Loc: Longwood, FL
Re: Issac & 24/12Z Upper Air Package [Re: MichaelA]
      #93521 - Fri Aug 24 2012 07:29 PM

Finally seeing some wrap around the NW quadrant and what looks like a true COC (used IR AVN). Anyone disagree?

Edited by OrlandoDan (Fri Aug 24 2012 07:34 PM)


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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 4336
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Re: Issac & 24/12Z Upper Air Package [Re: MichaelA]
      #93522 - Fri Aug 24 2012 07:40 PM

18Z models:

GFS: Crosses middle keys around 2PM Sunday, then clips southwest Florida, and eventually makes landfall again between Pensacola and Ft. Walton Beach around noon on Tuesday, then stalls out moving slowly over AL/MS.

EURO 12Z, Crosses Near Key West Monday around 8AM EDT, landfall near Mobile on Wednesday morning.

HWRF 18Z: ((similar to last nights 18Z, but west of earlier runs today) Clips over Key West, then moves into the Gulf straight up the Mississippi River delta into just south of New Orleans Late Tuesday night, a bad case for driving storm surge up the river, and on top of that it then stalls out over New Orleans.

GFDL 18Z ... Landfall middle Keys early Sunday afternoon. Then moves into extreme Southwest Florida, rides west coast, exits near Ft Myers, strengthens noticeably west of Tampa, but also starts to move noticeably more westerly. and landfall near Pascagoula, MS.

Recon fixes are a bit wonky still, so based on that, I think the models are very slightly too far west this time around.


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berrywr
Weather Analyst


Reged: Fri
Posts: 387
Loc: Opelika, AL
Re: Issac & 24/12Z Upper Air Package [Re: OrlandoDan]
      #93524 - Fri Aug 24 2012 07:53 PM

I agree; I pulled up a frame by frame IR of Issac and right at the very end there is a pronounced northward shift and it won't be long before Haiti is struck. I really want to take a look at new global models tonight and whether this shift to the east is as apparent as it was in the earlier runs; the longwave trough has shifted a bit east in the past 24 hours and I'm beginning to wonder if this puts not the West coast of FL under the gun but the East coast back in play. Issac appears to be looking better and better on satellite; curious to look at vortex data now.

--------------------
Sincerely,

Bill Berry

"Survived Trigonometry and Calculus I"


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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser


Reged: Tue
Posts: 826
Loc: Puerto Morelos,Mx
Re: Issac & 24/12Z Upper Air Package [Re: berrywr]
      #93525 - Fri Aug 24 2012 08:06 PM

Besides the science behind a SE FL landfall,I am getting that "gut feeling".
We will have Saturday and maybe very early Sunday to prepare,not much time.

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


Edited by ftlaudbob (Fri Aug 24 2012 08:08 PM)


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Storm Cooper
User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1290
Loc: Panama City , FL
Re: Issac & 24/12Z Upper Air Package [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #93527 - Fri Aug 24 2012 08:24 PM

This being the "lounge" I will go ahead and put this out here....this one I believe is going to bite us, and "us" meaning mutiple landfalls.

--------------------
Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1


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ralphfl
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 435
Re: Issac & 24/12Z Upper Air Package [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #93529 - Fri Aug 24 2012 08:26 PM

I dunno i see the same thing i see each year and that is the center is not prefect its not round so therefore as each frame goes it gives off the look of it making a jog.If you look at 10 frames and draw a line then you have the direction it is going but 1 frame does not make a shift nor i model run *sigh* *edit* the 8pm frame i looked at from the frame before shows almost west to me*just my 2 cents*

Edited by ralphfl (Fri Aug 24 2012 08:30 PM)


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WesnWylie
Weather Guru


Reged: Sat
Posts: 155
Loc:
Re: Issac & 24/12Z Upper Air Package [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #93533 - Fri Aug 24 2012 09:01 PM

Well, the models have shifted west again! The BAM models have shifted to a W FL Panhandle landfall, rather than an E FL landfall. After landfall, the BAMS & BAMM take Isaac W/NW into AR, but the BAMD continues with taking him E/NE. This makes since, though, since a stronger system is more likely to go poleward. The 00Z CMC is pretty much the same. It'll be interesting to see where this system decides to go.

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ralphfl
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 435
Re: Issac & 24/12Z Upper Air Package [Re: WesnWylie]
      #93535 - Fri Aug 24 2012 09:22 PM

Yeah when i read i forget sometimes this is the forecast Lounge and not just hey it made a wobble 1 frame lol but yeah i see the models moving and IMO i think we will see shifts till the end.

Just remember its a cone not a line this is why Charley was supposed to hit Tampa and ended up in PC and the NHC was still right cause it was in the cone yet.

Personally i do not see them moving the cone at all this go round at all.


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TXEB
Weather Watcher


Reged: Thu
Posts: 30
Loc: Lake Jackson, TX
Re: Issac & 24/12Z Upper Air Package [Re: berrywr]
      #93537 - Fri Aug 24 2012 09:32 PM

Looking at a number of sat images including Caribbean & GOM WV loops and the Isaac floater, it sure appears that he is gulping dry air on the western side. That appears to be killing convection on the far west and south sides. At the same time, it appears that convection is increasing around a much tighter and better defined core that is just past the southern tip of Hispaniola and bearing down on the south edge of Hati. With Hispaniola to the north and dry air coming in from the west, I suspect that Isaac may weaken and get shaky for the next 24 hours, but may develop a tighter and better defined core as it does so.

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Mike V
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sun
Posts: 29
Loc: Cape Coral, FL
Re: Issac & 24/12Z Upper Air Package [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #93539 - Fri Aug 24 2012 10:12 PM

Quote:

Besides the science behind a SE FL landfall,I am getting that "gut feeling".
We will have Saturday and maybe very early Sunday to prepare,not much time.




What gives you the gut feel? Mine is I have not really seen any song birds or finches today, even when we put food out, the only regulars are ring neck doves and pigeons which never seem to leave.

I could tell you a Wilma story with a pigeon!

MikeV.


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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser


Reged: Tue
Posts: 826
Loc: Puerto Morelos,Mx
Re: Issac & 24/12Z Upper Air Package [Re: Mike V]
      #93540 - Fri Aug 24 2012 10:20 PM

Quote:

Quote:

Besides the science behind a SE FL landfall,I am getting that "gut feeling".
We will have Saturday and maybe very early Sunday to prepare,not much time.




What gives you the gut feel? Mine is I have not really seen any song birds or finches today, even when we put food out, the only regulars are ring neck doves and pigeons which never seem to leave.

I could tell you a Wilma story with a pigeon!

MikeV.




I almost stepped on a bird hiding on my balcony,that has never happened before.

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


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cosmicstorm
Registered User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 9
Loc: Florida
Re: Issac & 24/12Z Upper Air Package [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #93541 - Fri Aug 24 2012 10:35 PM

As for bird sighs.....they say the Ibis is the last to leave. In Green Cay wetlands this afternoon in Boynton Beach, there were still many Ibis around.

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