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Archives 2010s >> 2012 Forecast Lounge

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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser


Reged: Tue
Posts: 826
Loc: Puerto Morelos,Mx
Re: Issac & 24/12Z Upper Air Package [Re: cosmicstorm]
      #93542 - Fri Aug 24 2012 10:39 PM

Storms that broke off from Issac have been hitting SE Fl since late afternoon.Stormy and windy night here.

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


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ralphfl
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 435
Re: Issac & 24/12Z Upper Air Package [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #93543 - Fri Aug 24 2012 10:56 PM

Track moved more east and it has slowed down some 17.7 72.5 moving NW at 13MPH

location...17.7n 72.5w
about 65 mi...100 km SSW of Port au Prince Haiti
about 245 mi...395 km se of Guantanamo Cuba
maximum sustained winds...70 mph...110 km/h
present movement...NW or 310 degrees at 14 mph...22 km/h
minimum central pressure...990 mb...29.23 inches

Read more at http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/at201209.public.html#gmzT33M7R8uifIr3.99


Edited by ralphfl (Fri Aug 24 2012 11:13 PM)


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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser


Reged: Tue
Posts: 826
Loc: Puerto Morelos,Mx
Re: Issac & 24/12Z Upper Air Package [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #93544 - Fri Aug 24 2012 10:56 PM

11PM. Winds up to 70 mph,he is almost a cane.New watches and warnings.

My tropical storm watch has been upgraded to a Tropical storm warning.

Pressure down to 990 MB.

Track has been shifted a little east again.

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


Edited by ftlaudbob (Fri Aug 24 2012 11:03 PM)


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CaneTrackerInSoFl
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 395
Loc:
Re: Issac & 24/12Z Upper Air Package [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #93547 - Fri Aug 24 2012 11:12 PM

It looks like Isaac has almost ground to a halt though that could be my eyes playing tricks on me. Also appears to be wobbling almost due north during this immense slowdown? I hope Haiti comes out of this okay because there are few worse places to be than in a strengthening tropical system as it plods over you.

--------------------
Andrew 1992, Irene 1999, Katrina 2005, Wilma 2005



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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser


Reged: Tue
Posts: 826
Loc: Puerto Morelos,Mx
Re: Issac & 24/12Z Upper Air Package [Re: CaneTrackerInSoFl]
      #93548 - Fri Aug 24 2012 11:18 PM

With this new track at 11pm,he will spend very little time over Cuba.That could mean a lot as far as intensification.

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


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Mike V
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sun
Posts: 29
Loc: Cape Coral, FL
Re: Issac & 24/12Z Upper Air Package [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #93552 - Fri Aug 24 2012 11:27 PM

Quote:



I almost stepped on a bird hiding on my balcony,that has never happened before.




Yeah, that would be unusual. Interesting with this batch of moisture that got pushed ahead of the storm. Going to be interesting navigating around here this weekend with all the flooding that will go on.

At least I hope this is not going to be another Andrew, once in a life time is enough.

MikeV


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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 4336
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Isaac Forecast Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #93555 - Fri Aug 24 2012 11:45 PM

0Z GFS Run (8PM initialization), started outputting at 11:30

Initialized with 1001mb (too high)

Landfall near Key Largo in the Keys, 5PM Sunday, staying in Florida bay to just offshore Marco Island (Southwest Florida)

Offshore Sarasota about 60 miles Monday morning, then moving toward 100 miles away from St. Pete.

It's moving quite a bit slower this run.

Landfall between Pensacola and Ft. Walton Beach Tuesday Night. The starts to slowly drift inland and over southern Georgia.







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Joeyfl
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 133
Loc: St.Pete,FL
Re: Isaac Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #93556 - Fri Aug 24 2012 11:54 PM

Issac looks like it might very well try to stair step its way through the passage between Cuba and Haiti. I see no reason right now to stray from my thinking of Keywest NNW 40 miles offshore then into big bend, time will tell.

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WeatherNut
Weather Master


Reged: Wed
Posts: 412
Loc: Atlanta, GA
Re: Isaac Forecast Lounge [Re: Joeyfl]
      #93558 - Sat Aug 25 2012 12:14 AM

Looks like the ragged eye is making landfall on the Haitian Peninsula. Its also increased in forward speed. It wont spend long over land...at least the eye wont

--------------------
Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since


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OrlandoDan
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 402
Loc: Longwood, FL
Re: Isaac Forecast Lounge [Re: WeatherNut]
      #93565 - Sat Aug 25 2012 04:54 AM

I have the eye pegged at 19.1N 73.1W. That is a bit east of the forecast track. Anyone disagree?

--------------------
Keith (1988), Charley (2004), Frances (2004) , Jeanne (2004), Fay (2008), Mathew (2016), Irma (2017), Dorian (2019)

Personal Weather Station: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KFLLONGW67


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CaneTrackerInSoFl
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 395
Loc:
Re: Isaac Forecast Lounge [Re: OrlandoDan]
      #93566 - Sat Aug 25 2012 05:18 AM

Right now, Isaac needs to start turning left or by the time the 8 am advisory comes out, he's not going to spend any time over Cuba, if it all.

--------------------
Andrew 1992, Irene 1999, Katrina 2005, Wilma 2005



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OrlandoDan
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 402
Loc: Longwood, FL
Re: Isaac Forecast Lounge [Re: CaneTrackerInSoFl]
      #93567 - Sat Aug 25 2012 06:31 AM

Looks like we have a low level COC at 19.6N 73.6W and a mid level at 19.1N 73.1W. Anyone disagree. The low level COC looks like it is tracking pretty close to the NHC track. Also take a look at the GFS.

--------------------
Keith (1988), Charley (2004), Frances (2004) , Jeanne (2004), Fay (2008), Mathew (2016), Irma (2017), Dorian (2019)

Personal Weather Station: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KFLLONGW67


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CaneTrackerInSoFl
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 395
Loc:
Re: Isaac Forecast Lounge [Re: OrlandoDan]
      #93568 - Sat Aug 25 2012 06:50 AM

Doesn't look at all decoupled? I don't know what you are seeing there that would suggest that the MLC is displaced from the LLC that much, if at all right now. It looks pretty vigorous and healthy at the moment.

--------------------
Andrew 1992, Irene 1999, Katrina 2005, Wilma 2005



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mcgowanmc
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sun
Posts: 96
Loc: NW ARKANSAS
Re: Isaac Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #93571 - Sat Aug 25 2012 07:48 AM

A Cape Verde crossing Martinique
Then coming up under
Hispaniola
Then taking the 'easiest' route
thru the Windward Passage
Then moving into the Atlantic
Then just offshore the length
of Cuba to the Florida Straits
Then into the GOM
Then up to Tallahassee
as a
Hurricane.

The odds are greater than putting
a CAT 4 over the Statue of Liberty.

And yet the NHC has called this from
the beginning.

Never say Never, but it'll be a while before
you see this again....

Closest analog is 1998 George and
George went over PR And the spine
of Hispaniola.

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/co..._1998_track.png


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OrlandoDan
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 402
Loc: Longwood, FL
Re: Isaac Forecast Lounge [Re: CaneTrackerInSoFl]
      #93573 - Sat Aug 25 2012 08:16 AM

LLC is pretty dry on the west.

--------------------
Keith (1988), Charley (2004), Frances (2004) , Jeanne (2004), Fay (2008), Mathew (2016), Irma (2017), Dorian (2019)

Personal Weather Station: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KFLLONGW67


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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 4336
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Isaac Forecast Lounge [Re: OrlandoDan]
      #93575 - Sat Aug 25 2012 08:24 AM

Isaac's already a bit east of the 6z model runs today, and appears it won't be over Cuba for long at all, the surface trough over the keys now is keeping it sheared a bit on the west, and the mountains over Haiti are keeping it down on the right (but not tearing it up if Isaac were to go right over it)

In short it may be closer to the east side of the cone, which brings it closer toward S. Florida, albiet a bit capped in strengthening at least until it clears the islands a bit more.


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TXEB
Weather Watcher


Reged: Thu
Posts: 30
Loc: Lake Jackson, TX
Re: Isaac Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #93583 - Sat Aug 25 2012 09:46 AM

Over the past few hours (4+) the track seems to have been more northerly (maybe 340°) than the last NHC position/direction estimates indicate.

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doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 984
Loc: parrish,fl
Re: Isaac Forecast Lounge [Re: TXEB]
      #93585 - Sat Aug 25 2012 10:03 AM

I agree with Mike's assessment and Isaac seems to be going to cut across the NE most part of the island. That means more water time as it ambles NW'd. I think the intensity forecasts will adjust, perhaps upward, once this unsettled period abates and the storm is able to perform consistently for 6-8 hours. I am not convinced it will not be able to achieve the margins of cat I-II at its peak, so a 90+ peak is possible IMO.

--------------------
doug


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OrlandoDan
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 402
Loc: Longwood, FL
Re: Isaac Forecast Lounge [Re: doug]
      #93590 - Sat Aug 25 2012 10:42 AM

Definitley a more northward component than predicted at the 08:00 EDT update. Be interesting how the track shifts at the 11:00 EDT update.

--------------------
Keith (1988), Charley (2004), Frances (2004) , Jeanne (2004), Fay (2008), Mathew (2016), Irma (2017), Dorian (2019)

Personal Weather Station: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KFLLONGW67


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OrlandoDan
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 402
Loc: Longwood, FL
Re: Isaac Forecast Lounge [Re: OrlandoDan]
      #93591 - Sat Aug 25 2012 10:50 AM

Best I can tell LLC is at 19.9N 74.3W at 10:50 EDT. Check out the RGB Floater Loop.

--------------------
Keith (1988), Charley (2004), Frances (2004) , Jeanne (2004), Fay (2008), Mathew (2016), Irma (2017), Dorian (2019)

Personal Weather Station: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KFLLONGW67


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