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#96L 's remnants now consolidating into a compact well-defined Low over the Bahamas. May head towards Bermuda eventually.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 38 (Michael) , Major: 38 (Michael) Florida - Any: 38 (Michael) Major: 38 (Michael)
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Archives 2000s >> 2003 News Talkback

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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Waiting...
      #9361 - Tue Aug 19 2003 06:47 AM

Atlantic remains on the quiet side with a few areas of interest. Wave around 50W pulses with convection but no organization yet. Wave around 30W has some structure but still has a long way to go. Wave at 20W may become a player down the road - still way too early to tell.

Central and eastern Atlantic have shown an increase in wind shear - as has the BOC. Favorable environment exists between 60W and 80W.

Enjoyed reading the personal hurricane experiences in the previous thread. In the off season I'll try to remember to move some of these to the Hurricane History forum - and add a few of my own.

Time to watch and wait - the season has a long way to go.
ED

NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)

NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:

North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor

Some forecast models:
NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF


DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
AVN, ECMWF, GFDL, MM5, NOGAPS, UKMET

Multi-model plots from WREL

Other commentary at Mike Anderson's East Coast Tropical Weather Center, Robert Lightbown/Crown Weather Tropical Update Accuweather's Joe Bastardi (now subcriber only unfortunately), Cyclomax (Rich B.), Hurricane City , mpittweather , Tropical Weather Watchers.Com (JasonM) Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut,
Even more on the links page.


Edited by John C (Tue Aug 19 2003 01:15 PM)


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Steve H.
Unregistered




Re: Waiting...
      #9362 - Tue Aug 19 2003 07:30 AM

It seems our centrral Atlantic wave got a shove from behind last night and couldn't get organized. The AVN wants to move it through the Caribbean to just south of Cuba while a trough is moving into the east. African waves have to prove themselves. NOGAPS likes this wave near 20W, and so does the UKMET, but moves it slowly. These are just models. We'll have to see what happens to these when/if they make it past 60W. As Ed said, right now that's where the shear is the lightest, which isn't necessarily a good thing since these could develop further west. Cheers!!

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57497479
Weather Master


Reged: Sun
Posts: 414
Loc: W. Central Florida
Re: Waiting...
      #9363 - Tue Aug 19 2003 07:35 AM

Let's see what today brings. Have to say it looks fairly impressive. Have a great day everyone!

--------------------
TONI


All of us could take a lesson from the weather:
It pays no attention to criticism

My 2003 Hurricane guess 13-9-3


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Bobbi Waiting
Unregistered




For an invest :) think wave looks a-ok
      #9364 - Tue Aug 19 2003 07:46 AM

Reminds me of an old fashioned wave... from seasons past, somewhere back in the sixties... a classic sort of wave moving west slow enough to develop..fast enough not to get lost, maintaining decent color without flashing fast orange and reds that subside just as fast... moving towards warmer water and less shear... moving into place to be a player

like some oldie goldie wave... that could be crusing to the top of the charts sometime real soon..

think it looks just fine..
i like it

looks like it has a plan

bobbi
wake the guys up at the naval place and tell them we want an invest

thanks Ed.. love the name.. very cute.. perfect

waiting to see it deepen a bit and develop more



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57497479
Weather Master


Reged: Sun
Posts: 414
Loc: W. Central Florida
Re: For an invest :) think wave looks a-ok
      #9366 - Tue Aug 19 2003 08:11 AM

Nice visual Bobbi ! Now all we need is our favorite drink, a little seafood, and just sit back and wait... Just don't want this wave to get lost in the 60's tonight! Have a great day.

--------------------
TONI


All of us could take a lesson from the weather:
It pays no attention to criticism

My 2003 Hurricane guess 13-9-3


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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
Hey Jav...
      #9367 - Tue Aug 19 2003 08:24 AM

Actually the SOI doesn't correlate to tropical activity in the Atlantic as far as I know. But it will telegraph trof amplification 14-18 days following in the US. Bastardi's theory on this season is during trof amplification in North America (and its position relative to _this_ season) the East Coast opens up while flattening opens up the Gulf. Now with future trofs anticipated to be centered west of 95, amplification probably opens up the Eastern Gulf and West FL as well.

Steve

--------------------
MF'n Super Bowl Champions


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javlin
Weather Master


Reged: Wed
Posts: 410
Loc: Biloxi,MS
Re: Hey Jav...
      #9368 - Tue Aug 19 2003 08:47 AM

Yea Steve just something we might should observe you know.People have been noting htis track all the way across the Indian ocean.I'm just noting thier might be some kind of correlation worth noting.The wave now at 50 will does not look as good as last night but the circulation still got convection can see it here rotating small http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html

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Cycloneye
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 373
Loc: Puerto Rico
Re: Waiting...
      #9369 - Tue Aug 19 2003 08:48 AM

Good morning to all !!. When we will see a true longtracker CV system to track in our charts? I hope to see that comming soon as we are now at peak time in the CV season.Meanwhile the waiting period continues but how much time the lull will last? I thought that wave at atlantic around 50w was going to develop as conditions are favorable west of 50w as warmer SST's are from there westward but apparently it hitted a dry pocket last night.So I am waiting.

--------------------
My 2004 hurricane season forecast=13/8/3


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islander
Unregistered




Re: Hey Jav...
      #9370 - Tue Aug 19 2003 10:13 AM

Looks kind of "splitted" into 2 main areas of convection in the WV Floater...both looking fairly good in the loop. I wonder if if finally will hold together. Approaching the islands already.

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squirralee
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 80
Loc: Mims, Florida
Re: Hey Jav...
      #9371 - Tue Aug 19 2003 10:24 AM

I thought the same thing...but then I thought that I was just seeing things. But now that I know that I am not the only one seeing this...I know that I am not crazy...

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javlin
Weather Master


Reged: Wed
Posts: 410
Loc: Biloxi,MS
Re: Islander
      #9372 - Tue Aug 19 2003 10:45 AM

On the IF loop @ about 15N 54W you can still see a small rotation ,intensity is not as strong in it but the area around it is picking up again ,some.

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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
Re: Hey Jav...
      #9373 - Tue Aug 19 2003 10:55 AM

I glanced at Joe B's column this morning and he was indicating that some of the waves appear to be coming off in pairs, and 50 was no exception. There may be some kind of combining process underway that would take place today with the system set to roll starting tomorrow. His heads up was for the Islands north of 15 "If I am in the Islands north of 15, I'm watching." He thinks it will be in the N Caribbean on Thursday and Bahamas or near Cuba by Sunday. There is apparently a great degree of model divergence (GFS races west and into the Gulf for next week, UKMet/European have it NE of San Juan this weekend).

And since Jav asked about the SOI, here's his comment from today to help you understand it better: "Now before I get into the ugly details of some of the model runs (I am having nightmares about the UKMET), let me review the spice the SOI throws into the pattern. I think the reversal of the sign gives hints as to how the pattern amplitude will evolve, but not where it will evolve. In other words, I think its input signals on the order of a couple of weeks, amplitude or flattening. The rather simplistic idea is when one increases the westerlies in the tropics ( a flip to negative) it argues for less transport north of heat and hence more progression. When it goes positive, it argues for more amplification as the westerlies slow down (easterlies increase). Where amplification takes place is based on the hemispheric pattern."

There you go.

Steve

--------------------
MF'n Super Bowl Champions


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stormchazer
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 315
Loc: Central Florida
Re: Islander
      #9374 - Tue Aug 19 2003 10:55 AM

I think that action could really start when it gets past 55 west, especially the strong concentration at 48w. There is still dry air blocking any outflow to the north and still slight shear to the east. After 55 west, those conditions will have little effect.

The fact that there is a split in the two concentrations of convection is probably keeping the NRL from classifing an Invest.

--------------------
Jara

*************************************************************


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Storm Cooper
User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1290
Loc: Panama City , FL
Re: Islander
      #9375 - Tue Aug 19 2003 11:04 AM

While waiting turn an eye the middle east. The UN HQ. in Iraq got popped really bad a few hours ago. As far as the NRL waiting.... I think you are correct.

--------------------
Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1


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squirralee
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 80
Loc: Mims, Florida
Re: Hey Jav...
      #9376 - Tue Aug 19 2003 11:11 AM

Steve:

Do you think the models are going their separate ways because the wave may split and go their separate ways?

Or do you think that there is more of a chance for it to combine and all go the same way?


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javlin
Weather Master


Reged: Wed
Posts: 410
Loc: Biloxi,MS
Re: Islander
      #9377 - Tue Aug 19 2003 11:28 AM

I really like the goes floater 4.The last few loops are lending it toward some new intensification this afternoon.Some new convecction moving in from the SSE to that area of 15N and 54W.

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stormchazer
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 315
Loc: Central Florida
Re: Hey Jav...
      #9378 - Tue Aug 19 2003 11:29 AM

The time I give the models the least credence is with non-classified systems. The divergence could be based on there not being a solid center of organization for the models to lock on to therefore they each work from where they believe a classified system will initialize and only the good Lord above knows that for sure.
The models are only as good as the data put in and thats why models can see the same system so many different ways.

By the way, heres to thinking about our guys in the Middle East. God bless and protect them.

--------------------
Jara

*************************************************************


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Storm Cooper
User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1290
Loc: Panama City , FL
Re: Hey Jav...
      #9379 - Tue Aug 19 2003 11:38 AM

Good points on both takes. If you look at the AVN run / TC Genesis at 850mb vort. ( I just looked at 48hrs ) you will see multiple things that can be picked up on.... have to wait and see

--------------------
Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1


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squirralee
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 80
Loc: Mims, Florida
Re: Hey Jav...
      #9380 - Tue Aug 19 2003 12:06 PM

I don't trust the models or most forecasts over a 6 hour period. I own a lawn business and when they say it's going to rain on a certain day and I get out there and hustle and double my work load so that I won't be behind in my accounts...most of the time I wake up to a beautiful day the next day...but I am too tired from the day before to enjoy it..lol

I have been reading this site now for about three years and I like to read everybody's opinions. I love to watch mother nature perform her thing... it is so beautiful and yet can be so destructive at the same time. I usually don;t have much to say except to ask a few questions every once in awhile...and I really appreciate the answers.


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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
Actually Squirralee
      #9381 - Tue Aug 19 2003 12:46 PM

I don't have a clue because I haven't been looking at them. To be sure, I'll glance at the IR's in the East Atlantic, North Atlantic or Africa from time to time, but I don't pay a whole lot of attention to anything way out there because it rarely has any effect (or potential effect) on me. I pay most of my attention from the Islands on in.

But to specifically answer your question, I think the divergence among the models just has to do with them trying to interpret and deal with 'disturbed' weather. They don't (Globals) typically do very well until they've got a legitimate storm that can be factored in.

Steve

--------------------
MF'n Super Bowl Champions


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