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Azores #96L fails to complete transition into a Sub-Tropical Storm. Elsewhere, weak low pressure in Caribbean may linger into next week.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 40 (Nate) , Major: 58 (Maria) Florida - Any: 68 (Irma) Major: 68 (Irma)
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Archives >> 2012 Forecast Lounge

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cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1635
Loc: Austin, Tx 30.40N 97.80W
Kirk Forecast Lounge
      #93641 - Sat Aug 25 2012 08:22 PM



A rather large area of low pressure centered about 500 miles west of the Cape Verde Islands has become much better organized over the past 48 hours, and so we will now start a Lounge on this system, which has been tagged Invest 97L.

97L consists of a sprawling area of low pressure, so much so that I needed to use the 2km visible satellite image above in order to capture it all. The southwestern extent of the low consists of a shallow convective feeder that connects well into the ITCZ, with the northeastern portion stretching out to help establish an outflow channel with an upper level low centered southwest of Spain.

As of 8:00 PM EDT Aug. 25, the approximate center of 97L is probably now located near 15.3N 33W, and movement is to the west-northwest at around 15 MPH. Minimum central pressure is officially estimated to be down to 1006mb, and maximum sustained winds up to about 30 MPH. NHC has given 97L a 50% chance of becoming a tropical depression within the next 48 hours, and this could be conservative.

This is where to put long range best guesses on intensity and forecast track for this feature. Long range model output discussions are also appropriate here.

Edited to reflect upgrades on 8/28

Edited by cieldumort (Tue Aug 28 2012 10:40 PM)


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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser


Reged: Tue
Posts: 811
Loc: Rhode Island 26.19N 80.10W
Re: Kirk Forecast Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #93876 - Tue Aug 28 2012 10:41 PM

Looks like a fish spinner.

(Edited just for title change at request of User.)

Edited by Ed Dunham (Tue Aug 28 2012 11:36 PM)


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MichaelA
Weather Analyst


Reged: Thu
Posts: 855
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL 27.83N 82.69W
Re: Kirk Forecast Lounge [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #93895 - Thu Aug 30 2012 09:28 AM

This morning's sat pics are showing what appears to be an eye feature with Kirk. It's a rather small system and NHC is predicting that he could ramp up rather quickly due to that small size.

--------------------
Michael
2017: 15/9/4
2017 Actual: 17/10/6


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