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Azores #96L fails to complete transition into a Sub-Tropical Storm. Elsewhere, weak low pressure in Caribbean may linger into next week.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 45 (Nate) , Major: 63 (Maria) Florida - Any: 73 (Irma) Major: 73 (Irma)
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Archives >> 2012 Forecast Lounge

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Joeyfl
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 112
Loc: St.Pete,FL
Re: Invest 90L Forecast Lounge [Re: MichaelA]
      #93959 - Thu Sep 06 2012 01:38 PM

90L to me looks better than it did yesterday even though it is still feeling some slight shear from the north northeast. of where a possible LLC is forming or is located (northeast of the convection). Still have not heard if recon is going out or is cancelled. No changes really to overall thinking with 90L hanging out in central Gulf for next 48hrs before making a bee line across FL late this weekend. I still say 50/50 right now with respect to it becoming tropical storm/depression in any event it looks to mainly enhance rainfall across FL as front drops into central FL possibly stalling out which seems reasonable as it is still early for cool frontal passage here. But if 90L is able to get its act together and ride front across FL it would help to push whatever is left of the front through the state. If this forms and thats a big IF I still see maybe moderate TS at best. Time will tell...

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Joeyfl
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 112
Loc: St.Pete,FL
Re: Invest 90L Forecast Lounge *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard* [Re: Joeyfl]
      #93960 - Thu Sep 06 2012 01:41 PM

This post was sent to the Hurricane Graveyard

Edited by Joeyfl (Thu Sep 06 2012 02:01 PM)


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MichaelA
Weather Analyst


Reged: Thu
Posts: 855
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL 27.83N 82.69W
Re: Invest 90L Forecast Lounge [Re: Joeyfl]
      #93961 - Thu Sep 06 2012 02:08 PM

Very sheared system (even more than yesterday). Apparent weak LLC is near 28.2N; 88.3W with the convection removed well to the SW. If this system doesn't form independently from the approaching front, it will simply merge with that frontal trough and not become tropical at all. If anything forms here, it will be very weak.



Watch the Floater Loop for a better idea of what's going on.

--------------------
Michael
2017: 15/9/4
2017 Actual: 17/10/6


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WeatherNut
Weather Master


Reged: Wed
Posts: 412
Loc: Atlanta, GA 33.81N 84.34W
Re: Invest 90L Forecast Lounge [Re: OrlandoDan]
      #93962 - Thu Sep 06 2012 02:17 PM

There is a vigorous LLC to the NE of the main convection. It shows up nicely on the visible SAT. It is also getting closer to the convection. If the shear subsides a bit it could become something, but not anything more than a weak TS. Will be interesting to see what happens at the D.Max later

--------------------
Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since


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doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 943
Loc: parrish,fl 27.53N 82.44W
Re: Invest 90L Forecast Lounge [Re: WeatherNut]
      #93964 - Thu Sep 06 2012 03:30 PM

It does not look healthy at all. The vortex is ragged and the shear has blown convection a considerable distance from that point. It may not survive, IMO.

--------------------
doug


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MichaelA
Weather Analyst


Reged: Thu
Posts: 855
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL 27.83N 82.69W
Re: Invest 90L Forecast Lounge [Re: doug]
      #93965 - Thu Sep 06 2012 05:21 PM

The convection is even farther removed from the weak LLC this afternoon. The shear is tearing it apart, so I don't believe that there will be any tropical development of this at all now (unless there is a miraculous convective burst over the LLC ). Even the 12Z model runs aren't developing it now instead, showing a very weak low on the front that is approaching the Gulf coast and Florida this weekend.

--------------------
Michael
2017: 15/9/4
2017 Actual: 17/10/6

Edited by MichaelA (Thu Sep 06 2012 06:38 PM)


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OrlandoDan
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 342
Loc: Longwood, FL 28.69N 81.44W
Re: Invest 90L Forecast Lounge [Re: MichaelA]
      #93966 - Thu Sep 06 2012 05:58 PM

Agreed. What I did observe earlier today was correct. The LLC was close to the NE quadrant of the convection but the convection has since been completley sheared off to the SW.

--------------------
Keith (1988), Charley (2004), Frances (2004) , Jeanne (2004), Fay (2008), Mathew (2016), Irma (2017)


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OrlandoDan
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 342
Loc: Longwood, FL 28.69N 81.44W
Re: Invest 90L Forecast Lounge [Re: OrlandoDan]
      #93970 - Fri Sep 07 2012 05:30 AM

Looks like convection just tried to flare up directly to the south or SSE of the LLC but then got quickly sheared right off.

--------------------
Keith (1988), Charley (2004), Frances (2004) , Jeanne (2004), Fay (2008), Mathew (2016), Irma (2017)


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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 596
Loc: Polk County, Florida
Re: Invest 90L Forecast Lounge [Re: OrlandoDan]
      #93971 - Fri Sep 07 2012 06:49 AM

The blob is looking less and less like a storm. Is the center of circulation still intact or has it disappeared too? This little blob made the national news last night and our local met says that we will see rainfall from it this weekend. It looks very weak . I wonder if the 40 per cent chance of development still stands.

--------------------
God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.


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berrywr
Weather Analyst


Reged: Fri
Posts: 387
Loc: Opelika, AL 32.71N 85.23W
Re: Invest 90L Forecast Lounge [Re: MichaelA]
      #93972 - Fri Sep 07 2012 12:23 PM

Two scenarios; one, the system moves south and southwest out ahead of a narrow upper ridge axis that will be in place throughout the forecast period but I'm leaning on the second scenario and that's the arrival of major shortwave that will deepen the long wave trough along the eastern side of the United States dragging a cold front with it and bringing in some wonderful, wonderful dry weather for the a good part of the Southeastern US this upcoming weekend and whatever there is of this system being absorbed by this system. Leslie and Michael will be steered in due time by the approaching trough in the next couple of days.

--------------------
Sincerely,

Bill Berry

"Survived Trigonometry and Calculus I"


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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 596
Loc: Polk County, Florida
Re: Invest 90L Forecast Lounge [Re: berrywr]
      #93973 - Sat Sep 08 2012 07:54 AM

90l is a little streak in the Gulf this morning. We are supposed to get the cold front with the system attached to it. The 2:00am advisory does not expect it to become viable giving it a 10 per cent chance. I guess this is the last of Isaac.

--------------------
God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.


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