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Azores #96L fails to complete transition into a Sub-Tropical Storm. Elsewhere, weak low pressure in Caribbean may linger into next week.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 41 (Nate) , Major: 59 (Maria) Florida - Any: 69 (Irma) Major: 69 (Irma)
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Archives >> 2012 News Talkbacks

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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Nadine Weakening, Forecast to Brush Azores for Second Time. Watching 96L.
      #93982 - Tue Sep 11 2012 11:43 PM

Update - 11:30 PM EDT Monday Oct. 1, 2012
Nadine remains a strong tropical storm, challenging forecasts, but is still expected to succumb to the influence of a large non-tropical low and become post-tropical within a couple of days as it gives the Azores another round of wet and windy weather by Thursday morning.

Elsewhere, eyes are starting to turn to a large area of weak low pressure out in the central Atlantic. This feature has been Invest tagged: 96L, and NHC presently gives it a 60% chance of becoming a tropical depression within the next 48 hours.
Ciel


Update - 1:30 AM EDT Sunday Sept. 30, 2012
Nadine persists as a long-lasting tropical cyclone in the eastern Atlantic, affecting almost no one.

The low forecast to develop over the northern Gulf of Mexico has already begun taking shape while inland over Texas this weekend, and now appears more likely to take a mostly inland track, which if verified, would preclude any real subtropical development. Nonetheless, deep tropical moisture fed into this system from former eastern Pacific tropical cyclones will assist in creating very wet, and in some places windy weather, along with some potential for a few severe thunderstorms and isolated tornadoes. Affected states through midweek are likely to include Texas, Louisiana, Alabama, Mississippi, Georgia & Florida, to name a few.
Ciel

Update - 11:30 AM EDT Friday, Sept. 28, 2012
In the eastern Atlantic, Nadine has once again attained hurricane status, with maximum sustained winds currently estimated at 75 MPH. The tropical cyclone will likely maintain as a hurricane for at least the next day or so, and may even become a little stronger, after which gradual weakening is forecast, but Nadine is still expected to persist as a strong tropical storm for several more days to come.

Much closer to home, several elements are coming together that could result in a potent coastal storm, quite possibly subtropical, or even fully tropical in nature, early next week in the Gulf of Mexico. Updates on this developing weather situation can be found in the Forecast Lounge: Forecast Coastal Low in Gulf Next Week
Ciel


Update - Noon EDT Sunday, Sept. 23, 2012
Nadine has transitioned back to a strong Tropical Storm near 31N south of the Azores. A westward trek is likely for the next couple of days and since Nadine will encounter warmer SSTs and less windshear, the cyclone could regain hurricane strength by midweek.

The remainder of the Atlantic basin is quiet.
ED

Update - 11AM EDT Thursday, Sept. 20, 2012
Resilient Tropical Storm Nadine continues to maintain tropical characteristics south of the Azores. Nadine should move to the southeast over the next couple of days and could become stationary later in the weekend.

Invest 94L, a large non-tropical upper level low pressure center located well to the east of Bermuda, could slowly acquire tropical or subtropical characteristics. The system is drifting to the west northwest.
ED

Update - 12PM EDT Monday, Sept. 17, 2012
Strong Tropical Storm Nadine remains on track to approach the Azores in a few days.

Meanwhile closer to home, Invest 93L has no chance of becoming a tropical cyclone before frontal absorption completes as it move inland over the northern Gulf today and tomorrow, but it may serve to act something like a small hybrid riding along the front, producing locally heavier rains and breezy winds in immediately affected areas.

Invest 92L is barely hanging on in the eastern Caribbean, and conditions for tropical development there are expected to remain less than favorable for at least the next two days.
Ciel


Update - 4PM EDT Sunday, Sept. 16, 2012
A quick note to mention Invest 93L, which is now being tracked in the extreme northwestern Gulf of Mexico. This system has some potential to become a subtropical or tropical cyclone before it moves inland, most likely somewhere between southeast Texas and the Florida panhandle, from early to mid next week.
Ciel

Update - 7PM Saturday, Sept. 15, 2012
Nadine continues as a hurricane, but is forecast to slowly weaken, and begin turning towards the Azores over the next several days.

Closer to home, Invest 92L is now being tracked just east of the Caribbean for possible slow development.
Ciel

Update - 1AM Saturday, Sept. 15, 2012
Just a short update to note that in spite of an increase in windshear to 30 knots, Nadine has reached hurricane strength. A more easterly track is still expected over the weekend.
ED

Update - 9:30AM Friday, Sept. 14, 2012
Tropical Storm Nadine is encountering 20 knots of southwesterly windshear and is no longer expected to reach hurricane intensity within the next few days. By Sunday, Nadine is expected to turn more to the east - but the shear is also expected to increase.

A tropical wave near 12N 46W has become convectively active but is currently disorganized. Other clusters of convection are located in the northern Bahamas and the eastern Gulf of Mexico but nothing is expected to develop.
ED

Original Post - 11:43PM Tuesday, Sept. 11, 2012
TD14 gathered sufficient convection near its center this evening and the system has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Nadine - the 14th named storm of the season with sustained winds of 35 knots. Movement should become northwesterly to north northwesterly over the next few days and with light windshear and adequate SSTs of 28C continued intensification is likely. Although some contraction can be expected, Nadine will remain as a rather large tropical cyclone. Nadine should become a hurricane in a day or two.

Leslie and Michael moved into the north Atlantic and have become extratropical systems - and other than Nadine, the remainder of the basin is quiet.
ED

TS Nadine Event Related Links


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Nadine


stormplotthumb_14.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Nadine (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Nadine (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of Nadine

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Nadine
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Nadine -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)

TD#15 Event Related Links


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of TD#15


stormplotthumb_15.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of TD#15 (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of TD#15 (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of TD#15

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for TD#15
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on TD#15 -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)



Edited by MikeC (Wed Oct 03 2012 12:06 PM)


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cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1635
Loc: Austin, Tx 30.40N 97.80W
Re: Nadine Moving Northeast in the Central Atlantic [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #93989 - Sat Sep 15 2012 01:37 AM

Yet another fascinating, bizarre season that shows how little is really known when it comes to intensity forecasting.

Nadine does not look like an especially impressive hurricane on satellite, but using a shear pattern analysis - particularly if giving an allowance for its forward speed being added to what the max surface winds might otherwise be in Nadine's right front quadrant - this upgrade to hurricane, the 8th of the 2012 Atlantic Hurricane Season, seems very reasonable. In fact, objective Dvorak analysis suggests that Nadine could even be blowing stronger than 75 MPH tonight.

As noted by NHC, Nadine becomes the 3rd earliest formation of the eighth hurricane in the Atlantic basin - behind only the historic and hyperactive 1893 and 2005 seasons.


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Admin Note - GOES East is Out of Service [Re: cieldumort]
      #93997 - Mon Sep 24 2012 12:57 AM

The GOES East Imager and Sounder have both gone out of service. Satellite data over the Atlantic Ocean from GOES 13 is not available. Here is the latest message from NOAA Satellite Services Division:

"****************Update#7: ****************GOES-15 Full Disk images will
be transmitted thru the GOES-13 GVAR as of 0030 UTC. **
*
**Status:*********************************Imager out of service since
September 23, 2012 at 2122 UTC
Sounder out of service since September 23, 2012 at 1126 UTC
LRIT East out of service since September 23, 2012 at 2122
UTC****************
****************
The Engineers continue to investigate, no return to service time available."

ED


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Admin Note - GOES East is Back in Service [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #93998 - Mon Sep 24 2012 09:41 PM

GOES-14 has been taken out of standby mode and has resumed the GOES East service.

Update#15

GOES-15 is remaining in the Full Disk GOES-West Schedule and GOES-14 is
assuming the Routine GOES-East Schedule at 17:45 UTC. GOES-13 will
remain in safe mode while the spacecraft anomaly is being investigated.

Details: GOES-15 is remaining in the Full Disk GOES-West Schedule and
GOES-14 is assuming the Routine GOES-East Schedule and will be
transmitted through the GOES-13 GVAR beginning at 17:45 UTC. There are
some differences between the Routine GOES-13 schedule that was in
operations until the safe-mode anomaly began on September 23, 2012 and
the Routine GOES-14 schedule that is beginning today, September
24, 2012:

Frames Canceled for New Day Transition
GOES-13: 00:32 UTC CONUS Image
GOES-13: 00:20 UTC G. MEXICO Sounding
GOES-14: 01:32 UTC CONUS Image
GOES-14: 01:20 UTC E. CARIBBEAN Sounding

Eclipse Period
GOES-13: 03:15-06:44 UTC Stray Light Algorithm Applied
GOES-14: 05:15-08:44 UTC Stray Light Algorithm NOT Applied

Frames Canceled for Housekeeping
GOES-13: 15:32 UTC CONUS Image
GOES-13: 15:39 UTC S. HEM. Image
GOES-13: 15:20 UTC G. MEXICO Sounding
GOES-14: 19:00 UTC CONUS Image
GOES-14: 19:09 UTC S. HEM. Image
GOES-14: 18:46 UTC CONUS Sounding

ED


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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1023
Loc: Maryland 38.98N 76.50W
Re: Tenacious Nadine Regenerates [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #93999 - Tue Sep 25 2012 07:59 PM

Beauty shot of Nadine, September 25th, 2012:



Larger images

Edited by Ed Dunham (Wed Sep 26 2012 12:22 AM)


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