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Azores #96L fails to complete transition into a Sub-Tropical Storm. Elsewhere, weak low pressure in Caribbean may linger into next week.
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Archives >> 2012 Forecast Lounge

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cieldumort
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Reged: Mon
Posts: 1635
Loc: Austin, Tx 30.40N 97.80W
Forecast Coastal Low in Gulf Next Week
      #94001 - Thu Sep 27 2012 09:20 PM



An array of individual players are setting up to converge over Texas into the weekend, then continue to coalesce and possibly deepen over the western Gulf of Mexico early next week. At the present time there looks to be a chance that conditions could be conducive for these elements to form into a moderate hybrid cyclone. Most model runs that allow for this scenario then take this low inland somewhere between Cameron, La and Apalachicola, Fl.

Presently the set-up consists of the following features:

1) Upper level trough with an axis now just to the east of x Miriam set to pass northern Mexico with attendant shortwave troughs sweeping across that country. One of these shortwave features is forecast to cut off over the northwestern to north-central Gulf early next week.

2) Mid-level vorticity and abundant mid to upper-level moisture is being swept up from the remains of X Hurricane Miriam in the eastern Pacific by the above mentioned upper level trough.

3) Moisture-laden Invest 94E right along the coast of western Mexico. This area of low pressure currently has a 60% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone just southeast of the Baja according to NHC. Regardless of development, most indications are that a significant amount of moisture and vorticity from 94E (or the tropical cyclone, should it become one) will also get swept up and across old Mexico, ultimately adding to the brew coming together over south Texas/western Gulf of Mexico early next week.

4) Models are in rough agreement with the development of a surface low over south/southeast Texas this weekend, which then absorbs and/or works with the elements in 1, 2 & 3. This low is then forecast to drift over the very warm waters of the western Gulf of Mexico.

Two Potential Scenarios for a Gulf of Mexico Sub-Tropical Cyclone Next Week
Presently it appears that it is most likely going to be the above mentioned coastal surface low with the best potential to become a genuine hybrid cyclone, possibly even one that gets a name. However, it also looks somewhat possible that a cold core coastal low develops right along the front passing through the southern states which then goes on to become the dominant feature, acquires a few subtropical characteristics, but probably has far lower odds of becoming a real subtropical cyclone, and even less of a chance of getting a name.

Likely Impacts
As of Thursday, Sept. 27, it is way too soon to discuss specifics, but in a broad sense it is likely going to be very wet and possibly quite breezy along and just offshore of the coastal Gulf of Mexico, presently starting in Texas, picking up over the weekend, and then proceeding east to northeast from there well into the new week.

As this is currently only a forecast feature it is not an Invest, but if things come together something here may get Invest tagged as soon as the end of this coming weekend, at which time we will update the Subject header to reflect any relevant changes.

This is where to put your long range best guesses on potential for development, intensity, and forecast track. Long range model output discussions are also appropriate here.


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cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1635
Loc: Austin, Tx 30.40N 97.80W
Re: Forecast Coastal Low in Gulf Next Week [Re: cieldumort]
      #94002 - Fri Sep 28 2012 11:49 AM

The two basins that bookend the continental United States have yet again found some equilibrium this year, as Invest 94E in the extreme eastern Pacific has become Tropical Storm Norman, making for an "N" storm occurring at the same time in both the East Pac & Atlantic.

Norman is forecast to strengthen a little before pushing inland on the eastern side of the Gulf of California as a modest tropical storm. From there we are likely to see some separation taking place, with some of the more mid to upper level moisture and vorticity heading east to northeast, potentially increasing the odds of cyclone development in the western Gulf of Mexico as mentioned in the first entry, with the lower level vorticity stuck trapped in the Gulf of California, or slowly crossing inland Mexico.

In the visible satellite image below you can see Norman centered just off the southernmost tip of the Baja, as well as the remains of former Hurricane Miriam to its southwest. All that is left of Miriam now is a low level swirl. And yet another swirl, this a transient low to mid level feature, is noted to the north-northwest of x-Miriam. An interesting mix!




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