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Azores #96L fails to complete transition into a Sub-Tropical Storm. Elsewhere, weak low pressure in Caribbean may linger into next week.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 44 (Nate) , Major: 62 (Maria) Florida - Any: 72 (Irma) Major: 72 (Irma)
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Archives >> 2012 Storm Forum

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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Area of Interest - Hurricane Rafael
      #94012 - Wed Oct 10 2012 07:01 PM

At 10/21Z, Invest 98L was beginning to consolidate a weak center near 9.5N 53.5W - movement is stil to the west northwest at about 12 knots. Sustained winds are close to 30 knots and central pressure is 1008MB. Some of the models project an almost instant change in direction to the northwest and north northwest, but they have been expecting that movement for the last few days under the anticipation that the system would begin to develop. A more northwesterly direction still seems likely, but not for a day or two. Southwesterly wind shear is on the increase over the islands so any development will be slow to occur. SSTs are still warm at 29C.
ED

(Title changed to reflect change in storm status.)

Edited by Ed Dunham (Mon Oct 15 2012 07:53 PM)


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: Area of Interest - Tropical Storm Rafael [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #94020 - Sat Oct 13 2012 08:51 AM

Poorly organized Tropical Storm Rafael was classified yesterday evening and is located SSE of the Virgin Islands moving slowly to the WNW to NW. Strong south southwesterly windshear continues to displace convection to the northeast of the weak center. The system has a large convective shield displaced to the eastern semicircle and has more the resemblance of a strong tropical wave rather than a tropical cyclone. Movement over the Virgin Islands is likely on Saturday with the following Watches/Warnings in effect:

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* ANGUILLA...BARBUDA...ST. KITTS... NEVIS...ANTIGUA...AND MONTSERRAT
* SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...AND ST. MAARTIN
* ST. MARTIN
* GUADELOUPE...DESIRADE...LES SAINTES...MARIE GALANTE
* MARTINIQUE

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA...AND VIEQUES

ED


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: Area of Interest - Hurricane Rafael [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #94021 - Sun Oct 14 2012 10:47 AM

Tropical Storm Rafael has improved in its structure and slow intensification is possible for a day or two. Although all watches and warnings have been cancelled, heavy rain and gusty winds continue over portions of the Leeward Islands. Rafael is moving north northwest at 10 knots and an eventual turn to the north with an increase in forward speed is expected.

Rafael is likely to threaten Bermuda on Tuesday.

Weather Conditions at Hamilton, Bermuda

(Title change to reflect upgrade to Cat I Hurricane.)

ED


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