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Azores #96L fails to complete transition into a Sub-Tropical Storm. Elsewhere, weak low pressure in Caribbean may linger into next week.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 46 (Nate) , Major: 64 (Maria) Florida - Any: 74 (Irma) Major: 74 (Irma)
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Archives >> 2012 Forecast Lounge

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cieldumort
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Reged: Mon
Posts: 1635
Loc: Austin, Tx 30.40N 97.80W
Patty Forecast Lounge
      #94008 - Wed Oct 10 2012 02:54 PM



A tropical low pressure system located several hundred miles east of Miami, Florida is being tracked as Invest 97L. This system has become better organized today, and a tropical cyclone may be forming despite low probability odds per NHC.

While 97L is expected to merge with a front later this week and move off to the east or northeast, there is a window of opportunity for the incipient cyclone to head more southerly instead, and impact the Bahamas, Cuba, and locations in that general area.

This is where to put your mid to long range best guesses on potential for further development, intensity, and forecast track. Longer range model output discussions are also appropriate here.

Title edited to reflect upgrade.

Edited by cieldumort (Fri Oct 12 2012 10:19 PM)


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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #94011 - Wed Oct 10 2012 05:35 PM

A very typical sort of troubling system that often happens in November, however this October seems to be last years November... " incipient cyclone to head more southerly instead, and impact the Bahamas, Cuba, and locations in that general area."

Well said... looks as if it is beginning to separate from that front, the new one is moving across the country but might be too little too late... and will it dip DOWN enough to grab it?

Too much going on there to ignore http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/97L/flash-vis-short.html

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cieldumort
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Reged: Mon
Posts: 1635
Loc: Austin, Tx 30.40N 97.80W
Re: TD #16 Forecast Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #94016 - Thu Oct 11 2012 01:32 PM

Invest 97L has become Tropical Depression #16. Sixteen is presently centered near 25.5N 72.5W, and has been drifting ever so slowly to the south with an expected turn more to the southwest; however, models are somewhat split, with several in the group taking TD 16 off to the northeast, and others suggesting variations of a loop.

Shear over TD 16 is not terribly prohibitive for some further strengthening in the near term, but is forecast to deal a death blow to the cyclone within 48 hours. Still, it is worth noting that 97L/16 has been rather tenacious.


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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
Re: Tropical Storm Patty Forecast Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #94017 - Thu Oct 11 2012 06:42 PM

16 is currently Tropical Storm Patty... and am curious why the models stay and play with her longer than the NHC forecast does...though they wrote the forecast earlier. 11 PM should be interesting.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cg...;hour=Animation

They are all Cuban bound...for the most part with the LBAR going NE

http://icons-ak.wunderground.com/data/images/at201216_model.gif

Edited by Ed Dunham (Thu Oct 11 2012 11:56 PM)


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