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Archives >> 2012 Forecast Lounge

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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Sandy Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #94098 - Thu Oct 25 2012 08:09 PM

The 18Z GFDL stalls it off Cape Hatteras and deepens the storm to 929mb, and then flings it around into the Chesapeake.

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Random Chaos
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Re: Sandy Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #94099 - Thu Oct 25 2012 09:19 PM

That run is really bad for me. It's still the southern outlier, so hopefully it shifts back north. For the Chesapeake, if the storm comes on the east/north side of the bay, it blows the water out of the bay. If the storm comes on the west/south side, it blows water into the bay. So the best option for minimizing flood damage is for the storm to stay to the east as long as possible, allowing the water level to lower from the prevailing winds and preventing substantial coastal flooding.

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Random Chaos
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Re: Sandy Forecast Lounge [Re: Random Chaos]
      #94101 - Thu Oct 25 2012 09:33 PM

Relevant blog post about a past storm: http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=304

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berrywr
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Re: Sandy Forecast Lounge [Re: jkapust]
      #94102 - Thu Oct 25 2012 09:41 PM

Just got home from a day of college classes...so, stay tune...the fun is just getting started for the New England area...please do not forget that the wind field is likely to be huge so concentrating on a specific landfall is mute in fact the strongest winds are likely to be well away from the center due to a tight surface pressure gradient and a robust upper air to include a polar jet.

--------------------
Sincerely,

Bill Berry

"Survived Trigonometry and Calculus I"


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berrywr
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Re: Sandy Forecast Lounge [Re: berrywr]
      #94104 - Thu Oct 25 2012 09:43 PM

The following is the Final Extended Forecast Discussion out of the HPC...the same website which includes a current and out to 7 day surface analysis -

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
313 PM EDT THU OCT 25 2012

VALID 12Z SUN OCT 28 2012 - 12Z THU NOV 01 2012


...HIGH IMPACT MERGING OF ENERGETIC SYSTEMS ANTICIPATED OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST...


PRELIMINARY UPDATE...

DESPITE A MODEST CLUSTER OF OUTLYING DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS AND
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FROM THE VARIOUS MODELING CENTERS, THE LION'S
SHARE OF GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH
HURRICANE SANDY WILL PASS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE AMPLIFYING POLAR
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES TO BECOME INCORPORATED INTO
A HYBRID VORTEX OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST NEXT TUESDAY.
THE HIGH DEGREE OF BLOCKING FROM EASTERN NORTH AMERICA ACROSS THE
ENTIRE ATLANTIC BASIN IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW THIS UNUSUAL MERGER TO
TAKE PLACE, AND ONCE THE COMBINED GYRE MATERIALIZES, IT SHOULD
SETTLE BACK TOWARD THE INTERIOR NORTHEAST THROUGH HALLOWEEN,
INVITING PERHAPS A GHOULISH NICKNAME FOR THE CYCLONE ALONG THE
LINES OF "FRANKENSTORM", AN ALLUSION TO MARY SHELLEY'S GOTHIC
CREATURE OF SYNTHESIZED ELEMENTS.

AS IS OFTEN THE CASE, WHEN ONE PART OF THE NATION IS EXPERIENCING
A VERY ENERGETIC ATMOSPHERE DISTURBANCE, THE REMAINDER IS
RELATIVELY CALM. THIS EVENT SHOULD NOT PROVE THE EXCEPTION, WITH A
FAIRLY BENIGN FEED OF PACIFIC AIR INTO MOST OF THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL STATES. THE FAR WEST, PARTICULAR NORTH OF CALIFORNIA, WILL
HAVE ENOUGH SUSTAINED ONSHORE FLOW TO KEEP THE PERIOD WET AND
UNSETTLED.


FINAL...

UPDATED THE TRACK OF SANDY TO FIT THE 15Z/25 NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER TRACK THROUGH 5 DAY, WHICH DOVETAILS WELL INTO THE HYBRID
LOW POSITIONS THEREAFTER FOR DAYS 6 AND 7. BOTH THE 12Z/25 GFS AND
GEM GLOBAL BRING THE LOW INTO THE NEW YORK CITY AREA, WITH THE
ECMWF DIRECTING IT INTO THE LOWER DELMARVA PENINSULA. THE UPSHOT
FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER IS THE SAME- HIGH WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS FOR
AREAS ALONG THE TRACK OF THE TROPICAL REMNANT, WITH HEAVY SNOWS
POSSIBLE ON THE SOUTHWEST EDGE WHERE THE CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR
RUSHES ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND
ADJACENT LOWLANDS TO THE EAST.


CISCO

--------------------
Sincerely,

Bill Berry

"Survived Trigonometry and Calculus I"


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Random Chaos
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Re: Sandy Forecast Lounge [Re: berrywr]
      #94106 - Thu Oct 25 2012 11:43 PM

One thing that concerns me is inland flooding potential. In the case of the 18Z GFS run, this is in MD, VA, NJ, and southern PA. The GFS 18Z run is predicting landfall on the NJ coast, moving inland, then sitting for nearly 36 hours nearly stationary somewhere in either northern MD or southern PA, sucking in huge amounts of tropical moisture and dumping it. I don't trust the total precip predictions since they usually underperform tropical systems; these predictions are showing 3-5" of rain for this region. For 36 hours under the center of a tropical or subtropical cyclone, that seems low.

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Random Chaos
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Re: Sandy Forecast Lounge [Re: Random Chaos]
      #94107 - Fri Oct 26 2012 12:46 AM

Interesting developments with a couple recent models shifting landfall back north. What I am seeing is a gyre off the mid-atlantic coast seen in CMISS wind analysis. This gyre affects shallow systems mostly, with less affect on deep systems. What looks to be occurring is oscillations in how deep the models are forecasting the system to be when it starts interacting with the gyre (the point at which the eastward turn occurs, and NE movement starts). The result is directly related to how far out into the Atlantic Sandy gets before it turns back into the trough. In the case with current models (such as the 00Z GFS), a weaker, shallower Sandy is pushed further into the Atlantic resulting in a landfall near New York city. In comparison, the ECMWF and the GFDL are forecasting a deeper system, causing less affect from the gyre and resulting in a more southerly landfall, possibly even southern MD or into VA.

I think over the next 12-24 hours we will have a much better handle on the landfall location - the depth of the storm and it's interaction with this gyre will be very evident once it starts to make its turn to the NE.


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Random Chaos
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Re: Sandy Forecast Lounge [Re: Random Chaos]
      #94108 - Fri Oct 26 2012 06:32 AM

NRL is showing huge wind radii just prior to landing:

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/TC.html

Gale force winds extend the equivalent distance from the great lakes south to the gulf coast about 12 hours before landfall, and TS winds about half that distance. That impacts the entire Atlantic coastline from Massachusetts south to Florida. Beware beach erosion.

Also, 06Z GFS is now looping the storm just offshore of the Delmarva and NJ beaches before slamming it into NY. That's even worse for beach erosion than a quick hit. It's the only model doing that, though.


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ftlaudbob
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Re: Sandy Forecast Lounge [Re: Random Chaos]
      #94113 - Fri Oct 26 2012 01:52 PM

Looks to me like dry are from the south is pushing into Sandy and really hurting this storm.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/flash-wv.html

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


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berrywr
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Re: Sandy Forecast Lounge [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #94114 - Fri Oct 26 2012 04:31 PM

Sandy has run out of time in regards to doing anything else as a tropical system...the upper level is ringing her doorbell over on the water vapor imagery. The folks over at NHC have some really cool toys to determine if her core is warm core through and through; I hope for the public's sake that Sandy is designated Subtropical early on...hearing snow and a hurricane in the same sentence is simply weird; subtropical...bring it! Clearly Sandy is undergoing structural changes that began last night. I will look at everything in detail later tonight but we married boys have a saying; a happy life is a happy wife...see y'all tonight!

--------------------
Sincerely,

Bill Berry

"Survived Trigonometry and Calculus I"


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Sandy Forecast Lounge [Re: Joeyfl]
      #94117 - Fri Oct 26 2012 07:37 PM

This is the period of wait and see now, as it weakens and gets sheared, before the full baroclinic conversion takes place (when it will likely deepen again) is going to be a lot of wait and see.

For those in the Northeast, be prepared for outages, especially in the coastal areas (But likely fairly far inland). There are quite a few unknowns with this system since there have been so few in history to take a path and conversion like Sandy is forecast to.

Folks from the east Carolinas through Maine need to pay close attention as the wind field for Sandy (or whatever it becomes) will cover a vast area.


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HobbyistinNH
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Re: Sandy Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #94119 - Fri Oct 26 2012 07:51 PM

Quote:

This is the period of wait and see now, as it weakens and gets sheared, before the full baroclinic conversion takes place (when it will likely deepen again) is going to be a lot of wait and see.

For those in the Northeast, be prepared for outages, especially in the coastal areas (But likely fairly far inland). There are quite a few unknowns with this system since there have been so few in history to take a path and conversion like Sandy is forecast to.

Folks from the east Carolinas through Maine need to pay close attention as the wind field for Sandy (or whatever it becomes) will cover a vast area.




I just shared this in the other lounge, but will share here



This is from Cocoa Beach FL.

Any liklihood of this hitting MA or SNH? I don't know what models are doing...


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ftlaudbob
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Re: Sandy Forecast Lounge [Re: HobbyistinNH]
      #94120 - Fri Oct 26 2012 10:18 PM

This has a very good chance of being the weather event of our lifetimes.Never before have we seen this happen.I hope everyone one in the North East is prepared for an extremely bad situation.Very scary. Three systems coming together at the same time,wow.

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


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HobbyistinNH
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Re: Sandy Forecast Lounge [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #94122 - Fri Oct 26 2012 10:45 PM

Quote:

This has a very good chance of being the weather event of our lifetimes.Never before have we seen this happen.I hope everyone one in the North East is prepared for an extremely bad situation.Very scary. Three systems coming together at the same time,wow.




The Jet Stream, The Hurricane, and what else.
I could not find the "third system"


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ftlaudbob
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Re: Sandy Forecast Lounge [Re: HobbyistinNH]
      #94123 - Fri Oct 26 2012 11:29 PM

There is a storm coming from the west,a strong arctic blast coming from the north and of course Sandy.

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


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danielwAdministrator
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Re: Sandy Forecast Lounge [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #94124 - Sat Oct 27 2012 12:45 AM

506
FXUS02 KWBC 261827
PMDEPD

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
226 PM EDT FRI OCT 26 2012

VALID 12Z MON OCT 29 2012 - 12Z FRI NOV 02 2012

...DANGEROUS HURRICANE/POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE SANDY IS LIKELY TO
SPREAD HIGH WINDS/HEAVY RAINS AND INTERIOR HEAVY SNOWS FROM THE
CAROLINAS AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS NORTHWARD INTO CANADA...

GENERAL FLOW PATTERN
====================
A RETROGRADING POSITIVE ANOMALY MOVING FROM SOUTHERN GREENLAND
INTO NORTHERN QUEBEC FAVORS A QUASI-STATIONARY DEEP CYCLONE NEAR
THE NORTHEAST, IN THIS CASE HURRICANE SANDY AND ITS POST-TROPICAL
REMAINS. OTHERWISE...RIDGING IS GENERAL EXPECTED OUT
WEST...THOUGH FLOW ACROSS THE PACIFIC IS EXPECTED TO SEND AMPLE
ENERGY/HEAVY PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTHWEST. GUIDANCE IS IN
EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON THE GENERAL FLOW PATTERN, THOUGH ISSUES
REMAIN WITH SANDY'S FUTURE COURSE AND STRENGTH.

MODEL PREFERENCE
================
THE National Hurricane Center (NHC) TRACK NOW BEST RESEMBLES THE
00 UTC ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN. THE extratropical TRANSITION OF SANDY
MAY HAVE ALREADY BEGUN BASED UPON RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY...A
PROCESS EXPECTED TO COMPLETE TUESDAY PER NHC. THE DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE (PARTICULARLY THE 00 UTC ECMWF) SHOW PRESSURE SOLUTIONS
WELL BEYOND WHAT HAS EVER BEEN OBSERVED NEAR THE NEW JERSEY/NEW
YORK COAST (EVEN EXCEEDING THE 1938 LONG ISLAND EXPRESS HURRICANE)
EARLY IN THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE
(CANADIAN, GFS, AND ECMWF INCLUDED) HAS SHOWN A VERY STRONG BIAS
WITH TROPICAL CYCLONES GAINING LATITUDE AND/OR TRANSITIONING INTO
NON-TROPICAL STORMS OVER THE PAST COUPLE YEARS... INCLUDING (BUT
NOT EXCLUSIVE TO) LESLIE 2012...ISAAC 2012...DEBBY 2012 IN THE
WESTERN SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC IRENE 2011 AND IGOR 2010. PLEASE
REFER TO THE NHC FOR UPDATED INFORMATION ON SANDY.

THE 00 UTC ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN ALSO DEPICTS AN OVERALL FLOW
PATTERN UPSTREAM ACROSS THE W-CENTRAL CONUS AND ERN PACIFIC THAT
IS ON THE MORE AMPLIFIED AND LESS PROGRESSIVE SIDE OF THE FULL
ENVELOPE OF GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS OVER THE NEXT WEEK. THIS SEEMS
QUITE REASONABLE CONSIDERING DOWNSTREAM BLOCKING.

WEATHER IMPACTS
===============
PER THIS SOLUTION FROM SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WINDS AS HIGH AS
HURRICANE-FORCE ARE EXPECTED TO LASH EXPOSED AREAS OF THE
NORTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC STATES (THE COAST AND TOPOGRAPHY)...LEADING
TO POTENTIALLY SERIOUS COASTAL EROSION AND COASTAL FLOODING. THE
TIMING OF THE FULL MOON AND THE BUILD-UP OF TIDES OVER MULTIPLE
TIDAL CYCLES SHOULD EXACERBATE THE SITUATION ALONG THE
COAST...PARTICULARLY IN CORNERS SUCH AS THE NEW YORK BIGHT. HEAVY
RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO FOCUS WITHIN SANDY'S WARM CONVEYOR BELT
CIRCULATION AS WELL AS ALONG ITS DRAPING WARM FRONT FROM THE
NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND INTO NEW ENG AND ERN
CANADA...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS EXCEEDING 10 INCHES POSSIBLE. THIS
SOLUTION WOULD MEANWHILE ALLOW SIGNIFICANT SNOWS WITHIN ITS COMMA
HEAD PATTERN UNDER THE SUPPORTING/COOLING MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
TO FALL AS CENTERED/FOCUSING OVER THE CENTRAL THEN NRN
APPALACHIANS AND VICINITY. LAKE EFFECT SNOWS ACROSS THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITHIN THE CYCLONIC
FLOW IN THE SYSTEM'S COLD SECTOR. AS THE CYCLONE GRADUALLY WEAKENS
AS IT PULLS NORTHWARD THURSDAY INTO NEXT FRIDAY...WINDS SHOULD
SLACKEN AS SHOULD NERN US PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS/COVERAGE...BUT
EXPECT THAT AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN SIGNIFICANT CONSIDERING TROPICAL
ORIGIN OF THE LOW.

UPSTREAM...A SOLUTION CLOSEST TO THE 00 UTC ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN
SLOWS FROM HPC CONTINUITY SLIGHTLY THE INLAND PROGRESSION OF ERN
PACIFIC SYSTEM ENERGY ACROSS THE WRN US MID-LATE NEXT WEEK...MORE
SLUGGISH TO BUMP INTO A LEAD AMBIENT MEAN MID-UPPER RIDGE
POSITION. THIS SOLUTION OFFERS STRONG POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
PRECIPIATION/MOUNTAIN SNOWS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NWRN US NEXT
WEEK...INCLUDING THE THREAT FOR MEDIUM RANGE DAYS 4-7 LIQUID
AMOUNTS UPWARDS TO 5 INCHES OVER MOST FAVORED PAC NW COASTAL
TERRAIN AND THE CASCADES...WITH DECREASING BUT STILL WIDESPREAD
AMOUNTS SPREADING FURTHER INLAND.

ROTH/SCHICHTEL
$$

bold emphasis added~danielw


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Random Chaos
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Re: Sandy Forecast Lounge [Re: danielw]
      #94127 - Sat Oct 27 2012 10:48 AM

I have learned from previous storms: never discount the GFDL. As the storm gets closer, the other models are getting closer to what the GFDL has been forecasting for the two days - a more southern hit, somewhere in Deleware (or a little south) or southern NJ. GFS is still a northern outlier, while the ECMWF and other major models are getting much closer to the current GFDL.

The GFDL itself has shifted a bit north from a pair of runs two days ago, but except for those two runs which were southern outliers (near the mouth of the Chesapeake), it is surprisingly close to the same track for the past two days.

And now for the bad part: The GFDL track has it crossing the Chesapeake Bay (east to west, thankfully! not south to north!) about 6 miles north of me. Yuck.


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Random Chaos
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Re: Sandy Forecast Lounge [Re: Random Chaos]
      #94128 - Sat Oct 27 2012 11:01 AM

ECMWF Ensemble at 2100 hours on 10-29-12 - most likely Deleware Bay area hit:

http://twitpic.com/b7vs70

So right now the cone of the top models goes from central/southern New Jersey to about the Maryland/Deleware line. The inland track is more interesting as some of the models make the system "loop" as far south as southern VA over a 1-2 day period, while others have it quickly turn north after a couple hours.


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HobbyistinNH
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Re: Sandy Forecast Lounge [Re: Random Chaos]
      #94132 - Sat Oct 27 2012 01:19 PM

The track is changing... or tracks..
How worried should we be here in NH?
Is it likely to take a sharp turn towards PA or remain in the waters??
Either way with those 3 storms, we're pretty much screwed and should get prepared right??
I just worry. Last year with Irene we went all out, and boarded up windows, and stocked up.
But PSNH sent an email cautioning us to get prepared. It is my understanding this is a one time event of a lifetime?


CURRENT CONDITIONS FOR MANCHESTER, NH

Mostly Cloudy 65°
Wind: NNE at 4
Humidity: 61%
Dewpoint: 51°
Pressure: 30.06 in


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danielwAdministrator
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Re: Sandy Forecast Lounge [Re: HobbyistinNH]
      #94134 - Sat Oct 27 2012 02:24 PM

At this time, 2:20 pm EDT, the tracks have come into better agreement and it appears that Sandy will landfall somewhere in New Jersey. Somewhere from North New Jersey, GFS Model to Southern New Jersey, Euro model. I may have the models mixed up, but you can still get the picture.
Your area in New Hampshire should get wind and rain. Just check your local NWS Forecast and that's your best bet.
This is a very unusual Storm and some of the wind and rain forecasts will be a bit off. But if you plan for more rain and higher wind speeds you should be okay.

Don't spend valuable time looking at Sandy moving mile by mile. Get all of you Storm Preparations completed and then you can watch Sandy.

This is a mixed post and not totally a Forecast post.~danielw


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