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Azores #96L fails to complete transition into a Sub-Tropical Storm. Elsewhere, weak low pressure in Caribbean may linger into next week.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 44 (Nate) , Major: 62 (Maria) Florida - Any: 72 (Irma) Major: 72 (Irma)
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Archives >> 2012 News Talkbacks

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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Brewing Up Two More Invests
      #94032 - Sun Oct 21 2012 09:40 AM

9AM EDT 22 October 2012 Update

The system now known as 99L has a very good chance to develop into a tropical depression or storm later today. It is likely to go over the northern Caribbean, through the Bahams, and then generally stay offshore of the US. It may interact with an approaching trough once near the Mid Atlantic and may become a hybrid nor'easter later. Which would make for very rough seas along the mid Atlantic and northeastern US. But direct land impacts on the US are not likely.

Original Update
Invest 90L is located over 800 miles to the east northeast of the Leeward Islands moving slowly to the west northwest. The tropical wave that is Invest 90L has been interacting with an upper level low with a modest chance for additional development. SSTs are adequate and wind shear is low in the area, however tropical transition of upper level systems can be a slow process at best.

Invest 99L in the central Caribbean Sea has a large circulation envelope within a broad area of lower pressure. NHC is rather bullish on additional development of this system within the next two days, however, there is still a significant area of windshear (30-40 knots) over the Greater Antilles and this shear is not likely to abate for the next 3 days. It should also be noted that large systems usually don't develop rapidly.

SSEC Current Windshear

Convection has been on-again off-again with Invest 99L. Saturday evening deep convection just about totally disappeared but this Sunday morning the convection is in the 'on-again' mode. This system is currently moving to the west at 7 knots and steering currents suggest that movement to the west southwest is possible in the near term. If the system can avoid a northerly component for the next few days (and thus avoid the shear to the north) additional development is possible and rainsqualls over Jamaica, eastern Cuba and Hispaniola are likely.
ED

TD#18 Event Related Links


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of TD#18


stormplotthumb_18.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of TD#18 (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of TD#18 (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of TD#18

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for TD#18
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on TD#18 -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)


Invest 90L Event Related Links


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of 90L


stormplotthumb_19.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 90L (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 90L (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of 90L

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 90L
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 90L -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)



Edited by Ed Dunham (Mon Oct 22 2012 11:25 AM)


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WeatherNut
Weather Master


Reged: Wed
Posts: 412
Loc: Atlanta, GA 33.81N 84.34W
Re: Brewing Up Two More Invests [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #94038 - Mon Oct 22 2012 11:25 AM

We now have TD18 and there is a TS watch for Jamaica

--------------------
Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since


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JoshuaK
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 153
Loc: Central Florida 28.12N 81.99W
Re: Brewing Up Two More Invests [Re: WeatherNut]
      #94044 - Mon Oct 22 2012 06:27 PM

TD#18 is now Tropical Storm Sandy, while TD#19 is still churning out in the Atlantic.

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