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Archives >> 2013 News Talkbacks

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danielwAdministrator
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Reged: Wed
Posts: 3502
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Tropical Storm Fernand in the Bay of Campeche`
      #94718 - Sun Aug 25 2013 07:23 PM

RECON has helped NHC upgrade TD 6 to Tropical Storm Fernand.


Models Currently have the system moving West toward the Veracruz,MX area, and will likely make landfall later tonight.

Tropical Storm Warnings are up for the Gulf coast of Mexico from Veracruz north to Tampico. It has a chance to strengthen a little more before landfall, but with only a few hours left, it will likely stay below hurricane strength.

Radar out of Alvarado Mexico

Fernand Event Related Links


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Fernand


stormplotthumb_6.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Fernand (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Fernand (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of Fernand

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Fernand
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Fernand -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)


More information shortly.

Edited by MikeC (Sun Aug 25 2013 07:30 PM)


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danielwAdministrator
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Tropical Storm Fernand in the Bay of Campeche` [Re: danielw]
      #94719 - Sun Aug 25 2013 07:35 PM

RECON Vortex.
Impressive system.

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 25th day of the month at 23:00Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 309)
Mission Purpose: Investigate second suspect area (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 1
Observation Number: 06
A. Time of Center Fix: 25th day of the month at 22:31:10Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 19°06'N 95°43'W (19.1N 95.7167W)
B. Center Fix Location: 198 miles (319 km) to the WNW (293°) from Villahermosa, Tabasco, México.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: Not Available
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 52kts (~ 59.8mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 18 nautical miles (21 statute miles) to the NNW (348°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 63° at 42kts (From the ENE at ~ 48.3mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 18 nautical miles (21 statute miles) to the NNW (348°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1003mb (29.62 inHg) - Extrapolated
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 18°C (64°F) at a pressure alt. of 491m (1,611ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 23°C (73°F) at a pressure alt. of 501m (1,644ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 18°C (64°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 1,500 feet
O. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 3 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 42kts (~ 48.3mph) which was observed 18 nautical miles (21 statute miles) to the NNW (348°) from the flight level center at 22:24:30Z
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: Below 1,500 feet

bold emphasis added~danielw

Edited by danielw (Sun Aug 25 2013 07:41 PM)


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danielwAdministrator
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Tropical Storm Fernand in the Bay of Campeche` [Re: danielw]
      #94720 - Sun Aug 25 2013 07:48 PM

Dropsonde information Courtesy of TropicalAtlantic.com
Very unusual to see an INVEST dropsonde from 25,000 feet. I can't recall ever seeing one.
This dropsonde was released to the East of Brownsville, TX. At cruise flight level of 25,000 feet.

http://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/archiv...&mission=01

Product: Air Force Temp Drop (Dropsonde) Message (UZNT13 KNHC)
Transmitted: 25th day of the month at 21:25Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 309)
Mission Purpose: Investigate second suspect area (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 1
Observation Number: 03

Part A...

Date: Near the closest hour of 21Z on the 25th day of the month
Highest Mandatory Level For Which Wind Was Reported: 400mb
Coordinates: 25.5N 92.3W (View map)
Location: 324 miles (522 km) to the E (95°) from Brownsville, TX, USA.
Marsden Square: 082 (About)

Level Geo. Height Air Temp. Dew Point Wind Direction Wind Speed
1017mb (30.03 inHg) Sea Level (Surface) 27.2°C (81.0°F) 24.1°C (75.4°F) 360° (from the N) 8 knots (9 mph)
1000mb 146m (479 ft) 25.8°C (78.4°F) 23.3°C (73.9°F) 20° (from the NNE) 9 knots (10 mph)
925mb 831m (2,726 ft) 22.2°C (72.0°F) 20.1°C (68.2°F) 150° (from the SSE) 12 knots (14 mph)
850mb 1,563m (5,128 ft) 18.0°C (64.4°F) Approximately 12°C (54°F) 165° (from the SSE) 15 knots (17 mph)
700mb 3,200m (10,499 ft) 9.0°C (48.2°F) Approximately -3°C (27°F) 170° (from the S) 15 knots (17 mph)
500mb 5,910m (19,390 ft) -6.3°C (20.7°F) -7.3°C (18.9°F) 155° (from the SSE) 11 knots (13 mph)
400mb 7,630m (25,033 ft) -15.9°C (3.4°F) -15.9°C (3.4°F) 130° (from the SE) 8 knots (9 mph)

A small layer of drier air from 10,000 feet down to 5,000 feet. Or from the 700mb level down to 850mb.


Edited by danielw (Sun Aug 25 2013 09:06 PM)


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danielwAdministrator
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Re: Tropical Storm Fernand in the Bay of Campeche` [Re: danielw]
      #94721 - Sun Aug 25 2013 08:14 PM

Veracruz,MX latest airport METAR.
I'm trying to validate the 6 hour rainfall amount. 17 inches!!??

ICAO MMVR
Station Name Veracruz
Country Mexico
Location 19.15N 96.18W
Elevation 91
Time 25 / 23:46Z
Temperature 75.2
Dew Point 73.4
RH 94
Wind NNW (330) at 23mph , 35 mph gusts
Visibility 0.5
Pressure 1007.5
Sky Condition Broken Cumulonimbus clouds at 800ft
Overcast at 7000ft

Weather Rain Haze

Remarks
3-Hour Pressure Decreasing: 1.3 mb
6-Hour Precipitation Amount: 17.15 inch

Heat Index 73.8
Wind Chill N/A

MMVR 252346Z 33020G30KT 1/2SM RA HZ BKN008CB OVC070 24/23 A2975 RMK SLP074 57013 981 61715 8/37/ VRBL CONDS
MMVR 252240Z 33020G30KT 1SM RA HZ BKN010CB OVC070 24/23 A2978 RMK 60935 8/37/ -RA E35 RAB LWR VSBY E
MMVR 252148Z 33015G25KT 2SM RA HZ SCT012 BKN070 OVC090 24/23 A2979 RMK 60765 8/47/ DSNT CB 1/2 QDS

Rain verifies. 17.15 inches in a 6 hour period. Not good at all, even on a Coastal Plain.

Edited by danielw (Sun Aug 25 2013 08:25 PM)


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danielwAdministrator
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Reged: Wed
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Tropical Storm Fernand in the Bay of Campeche` [Re: danielw]
      #94722 - Sun Aug 25 2013 08:44 PM

Water Vapor view.
It appears that the mid and upper levels of Fernand may be onshore already.



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danielwAdministrator
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Reged: Wed
Posts: 3502
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Tropical Storm Fernand in the Bay of Campeche` [Re: danielw]
      #94723 - Sun Aug 25 2013 11:02 PM

Just a Tropical Storm. Right. And it's not moving very much apparently. 20 inches of rain in 6 hours.

ICAO MMVR
Station Name Veracruz
Country Mexico
Location 19.15N 96.18W
Elevation 91
Time 26 / 01:42Z
Temperature 75.2
Dew Point 75.2
RH 100
Wind W (270) at 29, 40 gusts
Visibility 0.8
Pressure 1004.4
Sky Condition Scattered clouds at 800ft
Broken Cumulonimbus clouds at 1000ft
Overcast at 7000ft

Weather Rain

Remarks 6-Hour Precipitation Amount: 20.25 inch

Heat Index 72.7
Wind Chill N/A


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