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Azores #96L fails to complete transition into a Sub-Tropical Storm. Elsewhere, weak low pressure in Caribbean may linger into next week.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 43 (Nate) , Major: 61 (Maria) Florida - Any: 71 (Irma) Major: 71 (Irma)
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Archives >> 2013 Forecast Lounge

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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


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TD#7 Forecast Lounge
      #94728 - Wed Aug 28 2013 12:24 AM

Tropical wave near 10N 37W is beginning to show some signs of better organization. SSTs of 30C. Movement to the west at about 10 knots. It looks like it could remain south of a stronger zone of westerly windshear. If it can, slow development seems likely.
ED

(Title updated - system has finally attained Invest status.)

Edited by MikeC (Wed Sep 04 2013 05:20 PM)


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


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Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #94731 - Sat Aug 31 2013 10:25 PM

This is the lounge discussion Forum for Invest 97L currently east of the Lesser Antilles. As the system approaches the Greater Antilles in a few days, windshear will decrease and forward motion should also decrease. If impact with the major islands is minimal, atmospheric conditions should improve and allow additional development to take place.

This is the place for your long-term projections on the system that might eventually become Gabrielle.
ED


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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist


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Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #94733 - Mon Sep 02 2013 12:43 AM

Some thoughts on 97L:
97L has found itself tucked up under some very impressive divergent flow aloft as the day has progressed. All quadrants showing anticyclonic motion, encouraging strong up-welling restoring force, lending to on-going eruption of intense convection all along a perceived trough axis that extends west to east from the Islands to ~ 300 nautical miles E. Given to the big oceanic heat content and that divergent field aloft, and considering the apparent absence of inhibitory dry air and/or SAL contamination ... TPC's electing to bump the hash region to solid medium seems almost an understatement. Currently 40% for the first 24 hours, and 50% over the next 5 days.

Having said that, the modeling et al has not been very committed to 97L. The CMC (Canadian global model) was (of course) the only g-based model that had been developing 97L. However, now the HWRF (tropical NAM/WRF model...) is also developing a small TC, taking it to between Fl and the lower Bahamas by 126 hours.

What I find intriguing is that the recent run of the experimental Roundy Probabilities product shows that right around day 5, there is a fairly large region of positive anomaly for development, situated right in that general area.

It should also be noted that the Madden-Julian Oscillation has been flagging this first two weeks of September as a more favorable arena compared to the suppressive nature of the overall circulation that had dominated much of the summer through August.

Should a TC evolve from 97L:

A shallower system may take a more westerly track through the Caribbean. One note about that; climatologically, systems tend to have a tough time getting their act together in the far eastern Caribbean sea. The reason for that has to do with systems tending to get entangled in the monsoonal exchange between NE South America and the adjacent region of the southwest Atlantic Basin. Downward vertical motion from land-based intense convection tends to compensate/mute the upward vertical motion associated/necessary with/for developing TCs. That can be overcome; the in situ circulation does not at this time appear to be taking on that longer term tendency, so we'll see...

Contrasting, a system that develops in earnest would likely tap the deeper layer steering field, and that would likely mean a more polar-ward position out in time.

John (Typhoon Tip)


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doug
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Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge [Re: typhoon_tip]
      #94742 - Wed Sep 04 2013 02:28 PM

There is quite a bit of "troughiness" to the west of this developing system. It is becoming more likely a TC will develop from 97L but its future direction seems to be northward and out to sea from its present location. If the system trailing it merges into it, then it could become a rather large and relatively potent system perhaps. Presently, even if the system has a closed low, there is not enough there to merit more than a weak depression classification.

--------------------
doug


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


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Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #94769 - Sun Sep 08 2013 01:07 AM

Interesting to note that the GFS drifts the remnants of Gabrielle to the west and close to the central Florida east coast in about 5 days - with some rain but no additional development.
ED


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


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Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Disturbance Gabrielle Forecast Lounge [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #94771 - Sun Sep 08 2013 12:44 PM

For unknown reasons, NHC has redesignated the remnants of Gabrielle (originally Invest 97L) as Invest 92L and has referenced the system in their model outputs as Disturbance Gabrielle.
ED


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