F
Current Radar or Satellite Image

Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane Center - Tracking Storms since 1995Hurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995


Chill falls over the Atlantic as the official season heads towards close
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 212 (Idalia) , Major: 212 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 212 (Idalia) Major: 212 (Idalia)
None
COMMUNICATION
STORM DATA
CONTENT
FOLLOW US
ADS
Login to remove ads

 


Archives 2010s >> 2013 Forecast Lounge

Jump to first unread post. Pages: 1
cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 2305
Loc: Austin, Tx
Central Atl. 98L Lounge
      #94780 - Thu Sep 12 2013 03:36 AM



A smallish, but fairly well defined area of low pressure in the central Atlantic which was tagged as Invest 98L a while ago, but then nearly fell a permanent victim to an abundance of dry air, has entered a much less hostile region.

This low may be re-titled with a different Invest number today, but for now I have listed it as x98L for consistency.

x98L has sort of been flying under the radar, and as of 2:45AM EDT, the system already has several of the hallmarks of a small, sheared tropical cyclone. Presently, x98L is located near 16.5N 53W, with movement generally to the west.

From the looks of things, it would not be surprising to see this low become an officiated tropical cyclone within the next 36 hours. The most recent odds given by NHC were only 10%, but that is almost sure to be raised this morning, and possibly by a lot.

Unsurprisingly, CMC is already bullish, developing the system into a bona fide tropical storm, and spinning it off to the north, harmlessly out at sea. An alternative solution would be to keep the feature somewhat weaker, and carry it farther west, in which case we would want to watch it for potentially significant development later this week, or next, much closer to land.

This is where to put mid to long range thoughts on this feature's potential for further development, intensity, and forecast track. Longer range model output discussions are also appropriate here.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1006
Loc: parrish,fl
Re: Central Atlantic Low Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #94781 - Thu Sep 12 2013 09:50 AM

Holy dry air Bat Man! ( :-) ) There is too much surrounding this system now to be overly bullish on its future. There is certainly a well defined vortex, but no energy to tap. I think the NHC's odds for development are right on.

--------------------
doug


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Pages: 1



Extra information
0 registered and 0 anonymous users are browsing this forum.

Moderator:  MikeC, Ed Dunham, danielw 

Print Topic

Forum Permissions
      You cannot start new topics
      You cannot reply to topics
      HTML is disabled
      UBBCode is enabled

Rating:
Topic views: 2028

Rate this topic

Jump to

Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources. 
CFHC's main servers are currently located at
Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well. Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center