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Azores #96L fails to complete transition into a Sub-Tropical Storm. Elsewhere, weak low pressure in Caribbean may linger into next week.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 44 (Nate) , Major: 62 (Maria) Florida - Any: 72 (Irma) Major: 72 (Irma)
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Archives >> 2013 Storm Forum

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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Area of Interest - Karen in the Gulf of Mexico
      #94833 - Thu Oct 03 2013 12:02 AM

At 03/03Z, Invest 97L was located close to the northwest tip of Cozumel Island and was moving to the northwest at 8 knots. Central Pressure is 1006MB and winds are at 35 knots. Structure has improved throughout the day/evening on Wednesday and a direct upgrade to TS Karen seems quite likely Thursday morning. SSTs are 30C.

Steering currents suggest that movement will become more northerly late Thursday and north northeasterly on Friday as an extention of the Atlantic ridge holds firm along the Florida east coast on Thursday. Additional development/intensification on Thursday will likely become more steady-state on Friday as system encounters increasing westerly windshear. The tropical cyclone could slow down quite a bit on Saturday - perhaps even stalling offshore the northern Gulf coast with movement becoming erratic.
ED

Edited by MikeC (Thu Oct 03 2013 08:37 AM)


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: Area of Interest - Karen in the Gulf of Mexico [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #94871 - Fri Oct 04 2013 01:05 PM

At 04/15Z, Tropical Storm Karen was located about 250 miles south of eastern Louisiana and movement at that time was to the north northwest at 8 knots and sustained winds had decreased to 45 knots. Latest satellite images hint at a slower and more northerly forward motion. The slowdown and stall mentioned in the previous post now has support from at least the GFS model which stalls the system south of eastern Louisiana from 12Z on Saturday until 12Z on Sunday.

As a trough to the west approaches and with northern Gulf coast shelf SSTs at 29C - and if the stall does occur - some intensification is possible late Saturday but more likely early Sunday as the cyclone begins to move off to the northeast or even east northeast. Windshear should decrease as the trough approaches - and the northeast movement would take the system away from any (minor) influence of upwelling.

Landfall location is still uncertain, but it looks more like Florida and less like Louisiana, which means landfall could occur as late as Monday morning, BUT a stalled system is prone to drifting so all areas in the watch and warning zones should carefully monitor Karen for changes in both intensity and forecast track.
ED

Weather Conditions at Boothville, LA
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Weather Conditions at Mobile, AL
Weather Conditions at Pensacola, FL
Weather Conditions at Eglin AFB/Fort Walton Beach, FL
Weather Conditions at Tyndall AFB/Panama City, FL
Weather Conditions at Apalachicola, FL
Weather Conditions at Tallahassee, FL


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: Area of Interest - Karen in the Gulf of Mexico [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #94878 - Sat Oct 05 2013 12:39 AM

At 05/04Z strong windshear has displaced convection over two hundred miles to the east of a naked swirl of low clouds. Center is at 26.5N 91W and moving off to the northwest into dry air. Hard to imagine how the system can survive in such hostile conditions. Winds are at 40 knots and decreasing.
ED


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