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Archives >> 2014 Storm Forum

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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Outlook for 2014
      #94940 - Wed Jan 01 2014 12:34 AM

Its the start of a New Year and time to consider the initial outlook for tropical cyclone activity during 2014 in the Atlantic basin. After three highly active years from 2010 to 2012, tropical cyclone activity dropped quite a bit during the 2013 season. Although there were 13 named storms - a slightly above normal number, the season produced just two hurricanes and no major hurricanes. Last year in the Outlook I noted that there has never been 4 seasons in a row with a high level of activity and 2013 kept that premise intact.

With only two hurricanes, the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) for the basin was quite low - and 2013 was not an El Nino year. The downward trend in activity is likely to continue for two reasons: 1) the latest NCEP SST Forecast issued on December 30th, 2013, predicts Northern Hemisphere ENSO neutral conditions for the Spring of 2014 and El Nino conditions in the 3.4 region for the Summer of 2014. The NCEP Forecast seems reasonable, and there is a good chance that at least a Moderate El Nino will exist for the August through October peak of the Atlantic hurricane season. 2) 2013 was the first year since 1994 without a major hurricane (the last season with just two hurricanes was 1982). With the expectation for lower tropical cyclone totals in the Atlantic basin in 2014, its quite possible that the so-called 25-year cycle of peak activity in the basin (which actually has never been exactly 25 years) could be over.

Unlike recent years when it was difficult to pinpoint a good analog year, 2014 has a bunch of them. The best analog seems to be 1963 - here is the list with corresponding storm totals:

1. 1963 9/7/2
2. 1979 9/5/2
3. 1982 6/2/1
4. 1968 8/4/0
5. 1991 8/4/2
6. 2002 11/4/2

With western Atlantic SSTs expected to remain on the warm side during the 2014 season, I'll lean toward the first two analogs with an initial slightly below normal outlook of 9 named storms and 5 hurricanes with 2 of the hurricanes reaching major hurricane status of Cat III or higher (9/5/2). If the trend toward a more significant El Nino becomes evident in the late Spring, the final forecast may require a downward adjustment.

Now is the time to start posting your own numbers for the upcoming season - and you can revise them as often as you wish until this thread gets closed on June 1st. Remember to post precise numbers rather than a range of numbers. Note that rationale for your forecast is not required. At the end of the season we'll look back and see if we did a little better than last year.
Cheers,
ED


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GlenJohnson
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sat
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Loc: Waldo Florida 29.79N 82.17W
Re: Outlook for 2014 [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #94942 - Sat Jan 18 2014 03:53 PM

It may be early, but I'm going with my gut, which says 12/7/3. we'll see what happens. Enjoy the warm sunny Florida weather.

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B.C.Francis
Storm Tracker


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Loc: Indiatlantic Florida 28.12N 80.58W
Re: Outlook for 2014 [Re: GlenJohnson]
      #94944 - Sun Jan 26 2014 06:31 PM

10/2/1

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Hurricane Fredrick 1979
Weather Guru


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Re: Outlook for 2014 [Re: B.C.Francis]
      #94945 - Mon Feb 03 2014 08:43 PM

Looking at the activity for the winter im going with 16/10/6. It would not surprise me to see another 2005 season

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B.C.Francis
Storm Tracker


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Re: Outlook for 2014 [Re: Hurricane Fredrick 1979]
      #94947 - Mon Feb 24 2014 06:46 PM

9/2/1

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JoshuaK
Weather Guru


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Loc: Central Florida 28.12N 81.99W
Re: Outlook for 2014 [Re: B.C.Francis]
      #94948 - Wed Feb 26 2014 04:22 PM

13/5/2

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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: Outlook for 2014 [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #94950 - Thu Mar 06 2014 12:59 AM

The latest NCEP SST Forecast issued on 3/3/14 calls for ENSO Neutral conditions to prevail through the Spring of 2014 followed by El Nino conditions in the August through October timeframe. On 3/5/14 the composite Dec/Jan/Feb SST came in at -0.7C which was about 0.2C lower than expected. This brief dip into La Nina conditions suggests that the forecasted El Nino could be rather weak. It also prompted a reassessment of the analog years which yielded a new set of analogs:

1968 - 8/4/0
2006 - 9/4/2
1986 - 6/4/0
1951 - 10/8/5
2009 - 8/3/2

With little change in the numbers, the new analogs (except for 1968 which seems to be the best analog) didn't have much influence on my original outlook, but I'll drop one hurricane with the new forecast now at 9/4/2.

Still plenty of time for all of you to post your own seasonal forecast numbers - we'll keep the thread open until the start of the season on June 1st.
ED

Edited by danielw (Mon Mar 24 2014 10:13 PM)


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M.A.
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Re: Outlook for 2014 [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #94951 - Tue Apr 08 2014 07:47 AM

14/5/1

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B.C.Francis
Storm Tracker


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Posts: 313
Loc: Indiatlantic Florida 28.12N 80.58W
Re: Outlook for 2014 [Re: M.A.]
      #94953 - Thu Apr 10 2014 06:59 PM

The earth is wobbling. So is the weather. Its been this way from the start. Im still going with 9-2-1.

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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


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Re: Outlook for 2014 [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #94954 - Thu Apr 10 2014 08:53 PM

This year 12/6/2

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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: Outlook for 2014 [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #94955 - Fri Apr 11 2014 01:41 AM

The composite Dec/Jan/Feb SST was adjusted from -0.7C to -0.6C, however, on 4/7/14 the composite Jan/Feb/Mar SST came in at -0.7C which was about 0.2C lower than expected. This continuation of an unexpected downward trend just about elimininates any chance for a significant El Nino event during the hurricane season. In fact the likelyhood of a weak El Nino event has been reduced by NOAA to a 50/50 chance. Conditions for tropical cyclone formation in the Atlantic basin during the 2014 season are trending toward slightly more favorable than previously forecast - with emphasis on 'slightly'. 1968 still seems to be the best analog year through July. Forecast total increased to 10/5/2.
ED


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Wingman51
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
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Re: Outlook for 2014 [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #94956 - Fri Apr 11 2014 04:04 PM

11/5/2

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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: Outlook for 2014 [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #94957 - Wed Apr 16 2014 12:00 AM

CSU has issued its initial Forecast for the 2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season - the numbers are 9/3/1 and the totals are driven by an expected El Nino event and cooler SSTs in the Atlantic basin.

TSR has lowered its seasonal forecast from 14/6/3 to 12/5/2.
ED


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Hurricane29
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 148
Loc: Miami Florida 25.77N 80.25W
Re: Outlook for 2014 [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #94958 - Wed Apr 16 2014 07:49 PM

NCState researchers release Atlantic hurricane season forecast: 8-11 named storms, 4-6 hurricanes with 1-3 major. This is more in line with my thinking of an average season.

http://news.ncsu.edu/releases/hurricane2014/


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Hurricane29
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 148
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Re: Outlook for 2014 [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #94959 - Wed Apr 16 2014 07:52 PM

Quote:

The composite Dec/Jan/Feb SST was adjusted from -0.7C to -0.6C, however, on 4/7/14 the composite Jan/Feb/Mar SST came in at -0.7C which was about 0.2C lower than expected. This continuation of an unexpected downward trend just about elimininates any chance for a significant El Nino event during the hurricane season. In fact the likelyhood of a weak El Nino event has been reduced by NOAA to a 50/50 chance. Conditions for tropical cyclone formation in the Atlantic basin during the 2014 season are trending toward slightly more favorable than previously forecast - with emphasis on 'slightly'. 1968 still seems to be the best analog year through July. Forecast total increased to 10/5/2.
ED




Not a pleasent yr for florida ED..


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B.C.Francis
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
Posts: 313
Loc: Indiatlantic Florida 28.12N 80.58W
Re: Outlook for 2014 [Re: Hurricane29]
      #94960 - Sun Apr 20 2014 06:53 PM

Just throwing it out there. Land fall chances for the US 2014 ? TS Gulf of Mexico? Florida Straits ?

Edited by B.C.Francis (Sun Apr 20 2014 06:55 PM)


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rmbjoe1954
Weather Master


Reged: Tue
Posts: 426
Loc: Port Saint Lucie, Florida, USA 27.37N 80.24W
Re: Outlook for 2014 [Re: B.C.Francis]
      #94961 - Wed Apr 23 2014 09:08 AM

With a strong El Nino expected to be entrenched later this summer I can expect storm activity to be minimal as the experts expect. With the Eastern Atlantic SST below normal (stunted Cape Verde season) and warmer SST expected near the SE USA I will expect storms to grow locally and would also expect a hit in the SE USA . Ugh!

My expectations are 10-4-1

--------------------
________2017 Forecast: 12/6/3________

There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard


Edited by rmbjoe1954 (Wed Apr 23 2014 09:19 AM)


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Doombot!
Weather Guru


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Loc: Lakeland, Fl.
Re: Outlook for 2014 [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #94964 - Sun Apr 27 2014 10:07 PM

It seems to me that the only reasonable way to "win" these prediction is to high or low ball it, so that's my entire rationale.

2014:
6/1/0


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: Outlook for 2014 [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #94966 - Wed May 07 2014 01:10 AM

Similar to a couple of months ago, the composite Jan/Feb/Mar SST was adjusted from -0.7C to -0.6C and the initial NCEP SSTs for Feb/Mar/Apr came in at -0.5C. NOAA still expects a moderate El Nino to develop this Summer in ENSO Region 3.4, however, recent forecasts have been about 0.5C warmer than the actual measured SSTs so a weaker El Nino may be more realistic this Summer/Fall. 1968 and 2006 still seem like the best analog years.

This thread will remain open through the end of May so you still have some time to add your own seasonal outlook to the list.
ED


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gsand
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 21
Loc: Palm Bay, FL 28.00N 80.38W
Re: Outlook for 2014 [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #94967 - Sat May 10 2014 11:44 AM

11/4/1

Stay safe everyone.

--------------------
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Hazel 1954 Camille 1969 Agnes 1972 Bob 1991
Charley 2004 Frances 2004 Jeanne 2004 Matthew 2016
2017 Forecast- 12/5/2


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