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Archives 2010s >> 2014 Forecast Lounge

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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Watching the Gulf of Mexico
      #94987 - Fri May 30 2014 11:59 PM

Long range models have been rather persistent in developing a weak low in the southern GOM later next week as a weakness develops between the western Atlantic ridge and a ridge over the southern plains. The origin of the low pressure system may actually be an anticipated tropical system (Invest 93E) that is likely to form south of the Bay of Tehuantepec in southern Mexico. NHC has given this eastern Pacific system a high probability of formation within the next 5 days and the cyclone should move north and cross southern Mexico into the Bay of Campeche in the southern Gulf of Mexico. If the Pacific system develops and strengthens into a Tropical Storm, the next name on the EASTPAC list is Boris. The tropical remnants of this system in the GOM are projected by long range models to intensify slightly and move slowly east northeastward. This would bring the potential for heavy rainfall to at least the southern half of the Florida peninsula by late Thursday into Friday and especially into next Saturday. Still a long way off but worth keeping an eye on as the Atlantic season gets underway.
ED


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B.C.Francis
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
Posts: 323
Loc: Indiatlantic Florida
Re: Watching the Gulf of Mexico [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #94989 - Sat May 31 2014 03:53 PM

Looks like something brewing just where your talking about. Invest # 1 ??

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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: Watching the Gulf of Mexico [Re: B.C.Francis]
      #94995 - Sun Jun 01 2014 12:46 AM

The system is still very disorganized and was in the Pacific as Invest 93E at 11.2N 95.0W at 01/03Z. NHC now pegs the chances for development at 80% with a slow movement to the north. The GFDL still redevelops the system in the Bay of Campeche in the Wednesday/Thursday timeframe, but some of the other models have backed off on that scenario.
ED


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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 4360
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Watching the Gulf of Mexico [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #95000 - Sun Jun 01 2014 12:28 PM

Today's GFS run isn't quite sold on this occurring as previous runs, but it's still a bit worth watching for early season activity, even if will just bring a good amount of moisture.

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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
Re: Watching the Gulf of Mexico [Re: MikeC]
      #95001 - Sun Jun 01 2014 09:09 PM

Anything that might form will most likely be near the coast in the BOC as it is ...for now.. the only semi-friendly place for development. Upper level winds may change. Note the NHC ups the probabilities in 5 days to 20% but that too can change.

A lot depends on what if anything forms in the EPAC.

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 4360
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Watching the Gulf of Mexico [Re: LoisCane]
      #95005 - Tue Jun 03 2014 10:13 AM

The Tropical Depression (2-e) in the east pacific is a slow mover, but seems to be better handled by the GFS model, the official forecast takes it slowly over land, although a bit faster than the previous forecast, but it is still forecast to dissipate. Early season systems tend to be difficult to deal with marginally favorable conditions. Almost all of last season was "marginally favorable", which resulted in nothing higher than cat 1 hurricanes.

So the outlook does not currently mention the chances for the gulf development, but it still exists, a lot depends on how this system in the pacific does. Even if something does occur, if more models, like the euro, start showing this it is more likely, marginal conditions should keep it weak.


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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 4360
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Watching the Gulf of Mexico [Re: MikeC]
      #95006 - Tue Jun 03 2014 02:00 PM

If the current trends persist, we could have an invest tomorrow or Thursday in the bay of Campeche, the NHC has a 10% chance for development in the next 48 hours, and 20% for 5 days. Which is a fairly good guess at this point, probably should be higher for 5 days. It'll likely be a typical early season sheared system (depression or lower end tropical storm) if it forms.

The tropical depression in the East Pacific is now Tropical Storm Boris.



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MichaelA
Weather Analyst


Reged: Thu
Posts: 901
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
Re: Watching the Gulf of Mexico [Re: MikeC]
      #95007 - Tue Jun 03 2014 03:19 PM

I see three possible scenarios:

1. A new system forms and remains weak due to shear.

2. The remnant of Boris regenerates in the Bay of Campeche and remains weak due to shear.

3. Nothing organized forms at all, due to shear.

At any rate, there will be a lot of moisture in the Gulf of Mexico to watch.

--------------------
Michael

WU PWS

2020 “guess:” 15/8/3
2020 Actual 30/13/6


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3522
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Watching the Gulf of Mexico [Re: MichaelA]
      #95008 - Wed Jun 04 2014 07:39 AM

I'll go with numbers 2 and 3. Tropical Depression Boris moved ashore overnight and has been downgraded to TD Boris. (Yes I know that's an E Pac storm).
Boris' remnants are forecast by the Servicio Meteorológico Nacional. México. - Conagua to cross the Isthmus of Tehuantepec and move into the Bay of Campeche area.

A persistent trough is situated on a NE to SW slant from just off of the Louisiana Coast over the western BOC and across Oaxaca,MX into the E Pac.
Ridging aloft just to the west of this trough has kept the western GOM slightly sheared.

See latest WV image below. Image Courtesy of TCEQ
Latest Updated WV of GOM from TCEQ

Note:ADMIN note in Admin forum

Edited by danielw (Wed Jun 04 2014 07:49 AM)


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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 4360
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Watching the Gulf of Mexico [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #95010 - Wed Jun 04 2014 10:05 AM

The system is now being tracked as Invest 90L

This system likely won't move for a bit.

There is a recon flight scheduled for noon tomorrow, if needed.


Invest 90L (Bay of Campeche) Event Related Links

Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of of 90L - New for 2018


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of 90L


stormplotthumb_1.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page


float1latest.gif
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 90L (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 90L (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of 90L

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 90L
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 90L -- RAMMB Info
COD Atlantic Satellite View


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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 4360
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Watching the Gulf of Mexico [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #95013 - Fri Jun 06 2014 08:21 AM

Misisng the chance to push northeast, this system (90L) is likely going to be sheared apart in the next day or two, with part shooting toward the Caribbean, and most of it sliding into Mexico. It still could develop, the recon was called off yesterday, but may go today. If it develops it will still be highly sheared and likely short lived.

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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 4360
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Watching the Gulf of Mexico [Re: MikeC]
      #95015 - Fri Jun 06 2014 02:08 PM

Recon left and went back to base, the main swirl of the system is nearly on shore already, and most of the convection is being sheared off to the east.

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