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Archives 2010s >> 2014 Forecast Lounge

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MikeCAdministrator
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Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Tropical Storm Arthur Forecast Lounge [Re: doug]
      #95080 - Tue Jul 01 2014 08:18 PM

Microwave imagery shows it a bit too, with the convection running toward the east side later in the frames.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimic-tc/2014_01L/webManager/displayGifsBy12hr_01.html



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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Tropical Storm Arthur Forecast Lounge [Re: doug]
      #95083 - Wed Jul 02 2014 09:47 AM

Most of the model runs this morning, with the exception of the Euro, have been a touch west, it will be a very interesting day on July 4th along the outer banks. Those heading to the beach there this weekend probably should reconsider that, considering a hurricane watch is up. If it doesn't make landfall it still will like have some sound side flooding on north facing coasts.

There's a bunch of recently added North Carolina related links on the front page this morning, and more will probably come.


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Prospero
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Re: Tropical Storm Arthur Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #95084 - Wed Jul 02 2014 10:20 AM

Looks like it is moving northwest over the past four hours.



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Lamar-Plant City
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Loc: Plant City, Florida
Re: Tropical Storm Arthur Forecast Lounge [Re: Prospero]
      #95085 - Wed Jul 02 2014 12:43 PM

The eye seems to be wobbling a bit and this looks like the westward portion of the wobble. Still overall movement at this point is mostly north. If you watch the next couple hours it may look like it is almost stationary or with a due eastward eye progression if this is a wobble....

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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Tropical Storm Arthur Forecast Lounge [Re: Lamar-Plant City]
      #95087 - Wed Jul 02 2014 06:11 PM

Models have shifted westward tonight with the healthy dose of Gulfstream IV data from the NOAA flights. Which puts coastal NC more at risk than before. So heads up



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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Tropical Storm Arthur Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #95091 - Thu Jul 03 2014 08:26 AM

Arthur's going to get a good while to intensify during the day, recon is now finding roughly 81knot surface winds (93mph) now, so there's a good chance Arthur will be a cat 2 / almost 3 by the time it gets nearest or over land in the overnight hours. Adding in the slow westward trend of the models, if I were up in NC in emergency management I'd be biting nails at this point.

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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Tropical Storm Arthur Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #95095 - Thu Jul 03 2014 10:54 AM

Radar is showing Arthur's center to be a bit west of the forecast point from 5AM, so I'd expect a warning/track shift at 11AM. If you are in North Carolina, please watch this closely!

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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


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Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: Hurricane Arthur Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #95097 - Thu Jul 03 2014 11:00 AM

Here are the 11AM storm specifics:
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.4N 78.5W AT 03/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 15 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 981 MB EYE DIAMETER 20 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.

ED


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Hurricane Arthur Forecast Lounge [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #95105 - Thu Jul 03 2014 08:04 PM

On briefly tonight, traveling tomorrow so the site is left to the mods. Arthur right now looks like attempting a eyewall replacement cycle tongiht, but it does look to be landfalling slightly west of the NHC's official track, bringing the worst of the system to the outer banks.

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