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Azores #96L fails to complete transition into a Sub-Tropical Storm. Elsewhere, weak low pressure in Caribbean may linger into next week.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 46 (Nate) , Major: 64 (Maria) Florida - Any: 74 (Irma) Major: 74 (Irma)
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Archives >> 2014 Forecast Lounge

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cieldumort
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Loc: Austin, Tx 30.40N 97.80W
Bertha Forecast Lounge
      #95149 - Mon Jul 28 2014 02:11 AM

A notable tropical wave that exited Africa last week is now being tracked as Invest 93L in the central Atlantic.

Invest 93L is presently defined by a somewhat elongated area of weak low pressure, with associated heavy showers and a few thunderstorms. NHC now gives this feature a 70% chance of becoming a numbered tropical cyclone within the next 120 hours (5 days), as it travels west to west-northwest.

This is where to put mid to long range thoughts on 93L's potential for further development, intensity, and forecast track. Longer range model output discussions are also appropriate here.

Ciel

Edited by cieldumort (Tue Aug 26 2014 12:23 PM)


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Invest 93L Forecast Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #95151 - Mon Jul 28 2014 09:35 PM

The setup in the Atlantic isn't that great for model runs in the long term, but there is enough concern for the Leewards for them to watch the system, as it has a window to gain strength later in the week. Until it forms, the models at the longer range are a bit worthless. Euro seems to be handling it the best, but only barely so.

Beyond the threat to the Leewards, it's still way too early to speculate. However, odds very much do favor it staying away from the US mainland, but still it can't be ruled out. Especially if it takes more of a westerly track.

Formation, probably Wednesday (although tomorrow is also a possibility based on how it looks tonight), it has a pretty good window to strengthen on Thursday, so it could be on its way to hurricane strength by then if the storm persists.

In short, watch it closely.


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


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Re: Invest 93L Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #95156 - Mon Jul 28 2014 11:06 PM

As a scientist I am reluctant to put much faith in coincidence...so maybe I should subtitle this as 'The Twilight Zone Forecast'.

On July 5, 1996, a Tropical Depression formed at 9.8N 34.0W and the cyclone eventually intensified to Hurricane Bertha. On July 9th that 'Bertha' reached Cat III and, as the system plowed west northwest just east of the Bahamas, the forecast from the NHC advertised an almost immediate turn to the north northwest - 24 hours later that immediate turn was still projected. However the margin for safety had been exceeded so on the afternoon of the 10th Brevard County Emergency Management issued an order to evacuate the Barrier Islands - and Patrick AFB was shut down - and at that time this seemed like the prudent thing to do (and indeed it was). Less than two hours later Bertha turned to the north northwest and stayed well offshore of the Florida east coast.

Now for the Twilight Zone - here is the Unisys link to the 1996 storm tracks:

UNISYS 1996 Atlantic Storm Tracks

Scroll down and take a look at the track for Bertha - and while you're at it, notice the track for Arthur that year. Sometimes meteorological patterns do repeat themselves but the similarities over long periods of time are normally not recognized.

It is not out of the question that this years version of Bertha may provide a similar close call but it is way too early of course for any certainty - which is why this interesting tidbit is in the Lounge Given the long range forecast for upper air patterns, it seems possible that this year the system would make more of a turn to the northeast even if it did make a close call - and, unlike the 1996 version, reduce the threat for the Carolinas - but no guarantees yet one way or the other for that outlook. Keep a close watch on this system.
ED


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


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Re: Invest 93L Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #95157 - Mon Jul 28 2014 11:21 PM

In these early stages, the TVCN Consensus track forecast seems to match up well against the expected steering currents - as it should. If anything, the TVCN track may be just a little bit too far to the north since the system still has not moved with any component that is slightly north of due west over the past 12 hours.
ED


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


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Re: Invest 93L Forecast Lounge [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #95162 - Wed Jul 30 2014 10:59 AM

At 30/12Z, NHC placed the center of 93L at 9.3N 44.7W with winds of 30 knots (probably very generous) and movement to the west at 15 knots. I suspect that the latitude is also a bit generous with the actual location a little further to the south, but the important realization is that there has been no northward component in the past 36 hours. Most of the model output seems to be putting a heavy bias on climatology - and that bias is too strong for such a weak system that may well remain weak for quite some time.

Light windshear today, northerly shear on Thursday, light again on Friday followed by strong west to west northwest shear over the weekend will probably mean a modest system at best - at least until later on Sunday when shear will relax once again. If this thing survives, the persistent low latitude westerly track of a weaker system will eventually require track adjustments more to the left - and the BAM suite and HWRF seem to be hinting at this already.
ED


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doug
Weather Analyst


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Re: Invest 93L Forecast Lounge [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #95163 - Wed Jul 30 2014 01:00 PM

Yeah, notably disorganized...not even sure where the low center actually is...one swirl emerged well north of 9.3, around 9.7 that may be a vortex. If so, it is exposed and all meaningful convection is south and the affects of the northerly shear are still upon it. There is one fresh burst east of that point however.

--------------------
doug


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craigm
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 302
Loc: Palm City, Florida 27.17N 80.27W
Re: Invest 93L Forecast Lounge [Re: doug]
      #95171 - Fri Aug 01 2014 07:52 AM

Good model consensus early and a fast mover. Bertha will need to be doing about 25 mph between Sun and Mon to cover that distance. What is the BAM suite picking up on that has been showing up in the last few runs? Does Jeanne ring a bell. Interesting to see if any of the others break ranks.
BAM is back in line

--------------------
Why I'm here:
Frances,Jeanne,Wilma,worked on Andrew damage

Edited by craigm (Fri Aug 01 2014 09:02 AM)


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MichaelA
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Re: Invest 93L Forecast Lounge [Re: craigm]
      #95173 - Fri Aug 01 2014 09:15 AM

I don't see any reasons to challenge NHC's track guidance with the strong SW wind flow along the East coast. Again, as has been the case for the last several seasons, shear and dry air dominate the Western Atlantic.

--------------------
Michael
2017: 15/9/4
2017 Actual: 17/10/6


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doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 943
Loc: parrish,fl 27.53N 82.44W
Re: Invest 93L Forecast Lounge [Re: MichaelA]
      #95174 - Fri Aug 01 2014 11:45 AM

Bertha is still being affected by shear, this time SW'ly and the LLC has become exposed again...Movement still WNW at rapid rate.
To elaborate a little further, the present set up NW of the system, being an upper level low in the 22N 65W area may be the source of the shear. I cannot see how this feature will not negatively impact Bertha given her forward speed and the location of the ULL.
This is a similar set up to last year when systems would come northward from the NE Carribean and then be influenced by an upper feature.

--------------------
doug

Edited by doug (Fri Aug 01 2014 12:00 PM)


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