Current Radar or Satellite Image

Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane CenterHurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995


Azores #96L fails to complete transition into a Sub-Tropical Storm. Elsewhere, weak low pressure in Caribbean may linger into next week.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 41 (Nate) , Major: 59 (Maria) Florida - Any: 69 (Irma) Major: 69 (Irma)
None
COMMUNICATION
STORM DATA
CONTENT
FOLLOW US
ADS
Login to remove ads

 


Archives >> 2014 Storm Forum

Jump to first unread post. Pages: 1
Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Areas of Concern - Iselle & Julio - Hawaii
      #95187 - Mon Aug 04 2014 11:31 AM

Because Central Pacific tropical cyclone tracks tend to have a little more stability (similar to the stability of Cape Verde system tracks in the central Atlantic), I'm going to start a thread for two EASTPAC systems that have a reasonable probability of having a direct impact on the Hawaiian Islands.

At 04/15Z, annular Major Cat IV Hurricane Iselle was located at 16.2N 136.5W with sustained winds of 120kts gusting to 140kts and a central pressure of 947MB. Iselle is moving to the west at 9 knots and a track to the west and eventually west northwest is expected. NHC takes Iselle just north of the island of Hawaii and over Maui, Molokai, Oahu and Kauai on Friday as a strong 50-55kt Tropical Storm.

At 04/15Z, recently upgraded Tropical Storm Julio was located at 13.5N 119.4W with winds of 40 knots gusting to 50 knots and movement to the west at 11kts. Central pressure is 1004MB and additional strengthening to a Cat I Hurricane is expected. NHC track forcast is for continued movement to the west and eventually west northwest with long range models taking Julio over the Big Isle of Hawaii and just along the south shores of the other major Hawaiian Islands next Monday as a strong Tropical Storm with winds of 55-60 knots. Although Julio will not become as intense as Iselle, with a slightly more southern forecast track Julio will not weaken as rapidly because of its track over warmer SSTs and could bring slightly stronger TS force winds to the Hawaiian Islands.

Additional discussion and links to Hawaiian data can be found here . Feel free to add your thoughts on this event in either thread.
ED


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: Areas of Concern - Iselle & Julio - Hawaii [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #95190 - Wed Aug 06 2014 01:02 AM

From NWS Honolulu:
".WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE BIG ISLAND.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH CONTINUES FOR WATERS AROUND THE BIG
ISLAND.

ALTHOUGH TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE NOT IN EFFECT
FOR NIIHAU...KAUAI...OAHU...MOLOKAI...LANAI...KAHOOLAWE...MAUI...
POSSIBLE IMPACTS FROM RELATED HAZARDS ARE STILL A CONCERN.

FOR MARINE INTERESTS...ALTHOUGH TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES OR
WARNINGS ARE NOT IN EFFECT FOR WATERS AROUND KAUAI...WATERS
AROUND OAHU...KAIWI CHANNEL...MAUI COUNTY WATERS AND PAILOLO
CHANNEL...POSSIBLE IMPACTS FROM RELATED HAZARDS ARE STILL A
CONCERN.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS
UNTIL 6 AM HST SATURDAY.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 5 PM HST...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ISELLE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 16.8N...LONGITUDE 141.6W...OR ABOUT 905 MILES EAST OF
HILO HAWAII. HURRICANE ISELLE IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 13 MPH.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
ISELLE IS EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINS...HIGH SURF AND STRONG
WINDS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS COULD REACH THE BIG ISLAND ON
THURSDAY. IF ISELLE REMAINS ON THE FORECAST TRACK...TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS COULD AFFECT THE SMALLER ISLANDS THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH
SURF IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE ISLANDS AHEAD OF THE HEAVY RAINS AND
STRONG WINDS. THE HIGH SURF MAY BRING COASTAL FLOODING...
PARTICULARLY WHEN COMBINED WITH AFTERNOON ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES.

IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE WHICH ISLANDS ARE AT MOST RISK
FROM ISELLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IT IS VITAL THAT YOU DO NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK.
FORECAST MOVEMENT...DIRECTION...AND SPEED ARE ONLY ESTIMATES.
EVEN SMALL ERRORS IN THE FORECAST TRACK CAN MEAN MAJOR
DIFFERENCES IN WHERE THE WORST CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR. DAMAGING
EFFECTS CAN EXTEND FAR FROM THE CENTER.

FOR THOSE UNDER A WATCH...NOW IS THE TIME TO PREPARE. DO NOT
WAIT UNTIL IT IS TOO LATE. STAY CALM AND KEEP INFORMED. CLOSELY
MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER LOCAL NEWS OUTLETS FOR
OFFICIAL STORM INFORMATION. LISTEN FOR WARNINGS OR CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST.

BE READY TO EVACUATE IF NECESSARY. HEED THE ADVICE OF LOCAL
OFFICIALS AND COMPLY WITH ANY ORDERS THAT ARE ISSUED. PERSONS
LIVING NEAR THE SHORE SHOULD BE PREPARED TO EVACUATE QUICKLY
SHOULD BUILDING SURF THREATEN.

AT PORTS...DOCKS...AND MARINAS...PERFORM THE PRESCRIBED
PREPARATIONS ACCORDING TO YOUR EMERGENCY OPERATIONS PLAN.
IF YOU LIVE ON A BOAT...BEGIN TO SAFELY SECURE YOUR CRAFT
AND MAKE PLANS TO LEAVE IT FOR ADEQUATE LAND BASED SHELTER.

SMALL CRAFT SHOULD RETURN TO PORT OR SEEK SAFE HARBOR"

The latest forecast from CPHC places Iselle over Oahu at 09/00Z as a Tropical Storm with winds of 45kts gusting to 55kts.

Hawaiian Hourly Weather Reports

ED


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
berrywr
Weather Analyst


Reged: Fri
Posts: 387
Loc: Opelika, AL 32.71N 85.23W
Re: Areas of Concern - Iselle & Julio - Hawaii [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #95191 - Wed Aug 06 2014 06:41 PM

I've updated our Facebook page with the 11am Hawaii (5pm ET) information. Iselle actually intensified a little bit this afternoon and once again has a large eye and a somewhat annular appearance and CPHC has Iselle approaching the island of Hawaii (the Big Island) as a minimum Cat 1/strong Tropical Storm. She looks much better on satellite than earlier, tough little system. Genvevieve (I have no idea if I spelled that right) is once again a hurricane and is forecast to turn northward out ahead of a deep trough well away from the island chain. I'm not aware there is a record of two back to back from east to west tropical cyclones visiting Hawaii; Julio is on the same track but just a tad north. I'm updating the discussions, but we'll stick with Iselle for the time being.

--------------------
Sincerely,

Bill Berry

"Survived Trigonometry and Calculus I"


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: Areas of Concern - Iselle & Julio - Hawaii [Re: berrywr]
      #95195 - Thu Aug 07 2014 03:17 PM

As noted in the drop-down post of the latest Hurricane Local statement fron NWS Honolulu, all of the major Hawaiian Islands from Maui to Niihau are now under a Tropical Storm Warning and the Big Isle of Hawaii remains under a Hurricane Warning. As far as I can determine, this will be the first time in recorded history that a hurricane has hit the Hawaiian Islands from the east. Landfall of Hurricane Iselle expected on Thursday evening at 10PM HST near Isaac Hale Park on the east coast of the Big Isle with winds of 75mph gusting to 90mph. Iselle should exit the Big Isle south of Kailua-Kona at about 2AM HST Friday with winds in the Kona area out of the east southeast at 60mph gusting to 75mph. Tropical Storm Iselle should be south of Waikiki (Oahu) around Noon HST on Friday with winds in Honolulu out of the southeast at 45-50mph with isolated gusts to 60mph. By 9PM on Friday, Iselle should be south southwest of Niihau Island - winds in Lihue, Kauai, out of the east southeast at 40mph gusting to 50mph. Flood warning in effect for all of the Islands and dangerous surf is expected.
ED

Edited by Ed Dunham (Thu Aug 07 2014 11:28 PM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: Areas of Concern - Iselle & Julio - Hawaii [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #95197 - Sat Aug 09 2014 12:19 AM

Observed wind gusts (mph) in Hawaii from Tropical Storm Iselle:
Lihue G33
Oahu Forest NW G71
Honolulu G41
Bellows AFS G41
Kaneohe MCAS G45
Molokai Site1 G56
Kealialalo G67
Lanai City G58
Maui Kula Site1 G61
Kahului G47
Bradshaw AAF G44
Kahoolawe G60
Hawaii Pali Site2 G66
Kealakomo G64
Hilo G44

Highest rainfall totals were on the Big Isle:
HKUH1 : HAKALAU : 10.23
PKLH1 : PUA AKALA (NRCS) : 10.53
SLVH1 : SILVERSWORD (NRCS) : 7.91
SDQH1 : SADDLE QUARRY (USGS) : 13.03
GLNH1 : GLENWOOD (5040) : 12.60
KNWH1 : KULANI NWR (5050) : 13.18
KKUH1 : KEAUMO : 9.13
KMOH1 : KEALAKOMO : 7.86
PLIH1 : PALI 2 : 12.77

ED


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Pages: 1



Extra information
0 registered and 0 anonymous users are browsing this forum.

Moderator:  MikeC, Ed Dunham, danielw 

Print Topic

Forum Permissions
      You cannot start new topics
      You cannot reply to topics
      HTML is disabled
      UBBCode is enabled

Rating:
Topic views: 3095

Rate this topic

Jump to

Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources. 
CFHC's main servers are currently located at
Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well. Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center