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Azores #96L fails to complete transition into a Sub-Tropical Storm. Elsewhere, weak low pressure in Caribbean may linger into next week.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 41 (Nate) , Major: 59 (Maria) Florida - Any: 69 (Irma) Major: 69 (Irma)
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Archives >> 2014 Storm Forum

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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Area of Interest - Cristobal
      #95206 - Tue Aug 19 2014 11:55 PM

At 20/03Z poorly organized Invest 96L was located in the west central Atlantic near 9.5N 52.0W with winds of 25 knots and a central pressure of 1009MB. The system was moving westward at 10kts. SSTs are 29C. Increasing chances for some development on Wednesday and Thursday but the system will encounter increasing westerly windshear on Friday and into the weekend as it moves to the west to west northwest along the base of a healthy Atlantic ridge. A dry atmosphere in the Caribbean Sea will also limit development. If the system can survive until it gains some latitude south of Cuba it will start to encounter a better environment for additional development - perhaps even rapid development - but its a bit too soon to speculate on that theme at this time. Invest 96L is certainly a system worth monitoring, but the overall structure is currently not well defined.
ED

(Title updated to reflect current storm status.)

Edited by MikeC (Sun Aug 24 2014 07:45 AM)


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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1023
Loc: Maryland 38.98N 76.50W
Re: Area of Interest - Invest 96L [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #95210 - Thu Aug 21 2014 06:47 AM

Up to 50% chance in 48 hours, 70% chance in 5 days. Looks like a decent bit of convection flaring there right now. Tracks right now could impact the east coast and Florida; the longer it delays development, the more likely to be a US event. If it were to organize immediately, it's track would most likely keep it off shore, but even just 1-2 days delay would bring it to an east coast event and 5 days probably a gulf event.

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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: Area of Interest - Invest 96L [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #95254 - Sat Aug 23 2014 01:23 PM

Invest 96L remains an ill-defined system with a large circulation envelope and a weak LLCC located near 20.9N 71.7W at 23/16Z (Noon EDT). Current short-term movement has been to the northwest at 12 knots. SST is 30C, winds are at 30 knots and pressure is at 1007MB. Dry air entrainment from the west and southwesterly windshear have held intensification in check. The dry air is modifying but the windshear is expected to persist so development and intensification is going to be a slow process. Invest 96L should eventually become a tropical cyclone and bring heavy squalls and strong wind gusts to the southern and central Bahamas over the remainder of the weekend. Residents in Florida should continue to monitor the progress of this developing system.
ED


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doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 943
Loc: parrish,fl 27.53N 82.44W
Re: Area of Interest - TD #4 [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #95255 - Sat Aug 23 2014 01:48 PM

Yes Florida should be aware. What I see is a system that could deepen quickly, it looks more together now than three hours ago, so it can become an official cyclone any time now. As for track, I notice that the trough to the north is splitting, and the currents to the NW of the LLC are more westerly...everything is uncertain with this system.

(Title updated to reflect current storm status.)

Edited by Ed Dunham (Sat Aug 23 2014 07:05 PM)


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: Area of Interest - TD #4 [Re: doug]
      #95263 - Sun Aug 24 2014 12:46 AM

NHC keeps moving the system to the northwest at 8 knots, but the cloud pattern isn't going anywhere. I do see a circulation at about 21.2N 71.2W that has been stationary for quite a few hours and is about two degrees southeast of the advertised position at 03Z. If it indeed is the real center then the models are getting an incorrect input for movement and location. Weak cyclones can develop multiple centers so if this continues it will be interesting to see how things get adjusted. 'Dead stop' systems are tough to forecast.

Good advice from Melbourne NWS Office this evening:
"MON INTO MID/LATE WEEK...WILL HAVE TO SEE WHAT THE EVOLUTION OF
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 4 IS. EARLY MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR DEVELOPING
TROPICAL CYCLONES CAN BE LESS RELIABLE. ONCE THE SYSTEM BECOMES
MORE ESTABLISHED...THE MODELS OFTEN CAN LOCK IN BETTER. SO JUST
BECAUSE THE EARLY FORECAST CONE REMAINS PRETTY MUCH OVER THE
ATLANTIC...IT IS A LITTLE TOO EARLY TO SAY THAT THE SYSTEM WILL MISS
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. THE MODELS SHOW THE SYSTEM MOVING VERY SLOWLY
EARLY IN THE WEEK...SO THERE IS TIME TO ASSESS THE THREAT POTENTIAL
BUT BE PREPARED TO ACT IF THE TRACK WERE TO SHIFT CLOSER TO THE AREA."

ED


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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
Re: Area of Interest - TD #4 [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #95264 - Sun Aug 24 2014 01:08 AM

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/04L/imagery/wv_lalo-animated.gif

It's a very poorly organized system. I can see the "center" where the cords are but I can also see a twist to the south and think there is stil a broad area of low pressure. IF the center tightens up then it will be easier to forecast.

Too much going on and too many variables to say for sure. Too much hype and too much pointing to each new model run vs consistency both with models and with TD4.

http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_wv.php?inv=0&t=l12&region=ea

We will know more in the morning. Til then there could be a lot of flies in the ointment. A stronger, better developed TS would make a forecast out to sea much easier. Reerving judgement and watching the storm and the front carefully.

http://www.aviationweather.gov/adds/sate...ig&itype=wv

Still unsure on if there are multiple centers and if so..nothing is a lock.

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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