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Archives >> 2014 News Talkbacks

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cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1635
Loc: Austin, Tx 30.40N 97.80W
Climatological Peak Arrives With Gulf of Mexico Dolly
      #95283 - Fri Aug 29 2014 02:10 PM

4:00 AM CDT 2 September 2014 Update
Tropical Storm Dolly (from Invest 99L) is challenging forecasts, and is now starting to put south Texas at some risk for impacts. As of this update, tropical storm force winds are occurring up to 115 miles from the center. In response, the government of Mexico has extended the tropical storm warning area northward to Barra El Mezquital.

Weather Conditions at Ciudad Victoria, Mexico
Weather Conditions at Tampico, Mexico

4:30 PM CDT 1 September 2014 Update
Invest 99L which made its way from the Caribbean across the Yucatan and into the extreme southwestern Gulf of Mexico has become the fifth tropical cyclone of the 2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season.

Tropical Depression Five presently consists of a well defined surface circulation with a curved band of hearty convection wrapping around to the south and east of the center, and maximum sustained winds of 30 MPH. Five is forecast to become Dolly and make landfall well south of The Texas/Mexico border around mid-week as a low-end tropical storm.

Original Update


The end of August comes with entering the climatological peak for activity in the Atlantic basin, and it appears it could be coming right on schedule with no less than five areas of disturbed weather in the Atlantic. Should any of these disturbances become better defined and/or they are issued Invest tags, we will set up individual Forecast Lounges, as warranted.

Closest to home, the broad low of old Invest 98L, which moved inland near Brownsville, Tx late yesterday, has subsumed a strong tropical surge that ran up behind it.

This merged feature is presently producing widespread tropical showers and some thunderstorms along the Gulf of Mexico from the Mexico/Texas border all the way to the west coast of Florida. Gusts of up to 50 MPH are occurring offshore, and as a westerly wind component already exists, despite the old center of 98L now being just inland, it may be wise to keep tabs on this throughout this holiday weekend, just in case. Sometimes inland centers can reform offshore, if given the chance. Either way, some on again/off again squally weather is a safe bet for much of the gulf coast today, and possibly into the rest of the weekend.

Below: Invest 98L 12:15PM CDT 8/29/2014


Texas Gulf Coast Links Texas/South Plains Valley Composite Radar Loop (Latest Static) East to West:

Houston/Galveston, TX Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Corpus Christi, TX Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Brownsville, TX Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Gulf of Mexico Satellite Imagery

Area Forecast Discussions: Houston/Galveston, TX - Corpus Christi, TX - Browsnville/South Padre Island, TX

StormCarib Reports from the Caribbean Islands

Caribbean Weather Observations

Barbados Brohav Weather Fax

Caribbean Broadcast Corporation (TV/Radio from Antilles)

San Juan, PR Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Various Caribbean Radio Stations

DR1 Dominican Republic Hurricanes

Dolly Event Related Links


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Dolly


stormplotthumb_5.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Dolly (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Dolly (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of Dolly

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Dolly
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Dolly -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)


91L (East Atlantic) Event Related Links


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of 91L


stormplotthumb_6.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 91L (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 91L (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of 91L

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 91L
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 91L -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)


92L (Near Bahamas) Event Related Links


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of 92L


stormplotthumb_7.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 92L (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 92L (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of 92L

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 92L
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 92L -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)



Edited by MikeC (Wed Sep 10 2014 05:05 PM)


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cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1635
Loc: Austin, Tx 30.40N 97.80W
Re: Climatological Peak Arrives With The Atlantic Bubbling [Re: cieldumort]
      #95287 - Tue Sep 02 2014 05:00 AM

The current forecast for now Tropical Storm Dolly is being radically challenged by apparent center reformation complications tonight. These jumps not only look to be trying to drag her north of the Cone of Uncertainty, but also up against a region of higher pressures, resulting in a sizable increase in the pressure gradient between the two cells.

South Texas may want to keep a close watch on Dolly during the next 12-36 hours. Even if Dolly does not pull up north a la Humberto (2007), tropical storm force winds, at least in gusts, are already occurring a good distance away from the center.


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cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1635
Loc: Austin, Tx 30.40N 97.80W
Re: Climatological Peak Arrives With Gulf of Mexico Dolly [Re: cieldumort]
      #95288 - Tue Sep 02 2014 05:59 AM



Developing, sloppy systems can be a real bear to forecast. Case in point: Dolly, rather than continuing wnw overnight, made a series of jumps, placing her center due north of the prior confirmed location.


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