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Azores #96L fails to complete transition into a Sub-Tropical Storm. Elsewhere, weak low pressure in Caribbean may linger into next week.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 41 (Nate) , Major: 59 (Maria) Florida - Any: 69 (Irma) Major: 69 (Irma)
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Archives >> 2014 Forecast Lounge

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cieldumort
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Reged: Mon
Posts: 1635
Loc: Austin, Tx 30.40N 97.80W
Tropical Storm Dolly
      #95284 - Sat Aug 30 2014 12:26 AM

An region disturbed weather in the Caribbean consists of two loosely interconnected tropical waves with individual weak low pressure centers. This feature is now being tracked as Invest 99L, with a focus tonight on consolidation occurring in the vicinity of 15N 81W.

Development is not expected as this combined system moves through the central Caribbean, but some slow development may be possible by the end of the weekend as it starts to encounter a more favorable environment closer to the Yucatan, and especially so should it enter the southwestern Gulf of Mexico next week.

This is where to put mid to long range thoughts on 99L's potential for further development, intensity, and forecast track. Longer range model output discussions are also appropriate here.

Ciel

Title edited to reflect upgrade to Dolly on 9/2/2014 at 1AM CDT

Edited by cieldumort (Tue Sep 02 2014 02:19 AM)


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cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1635
Loc: Austin, Tx 30.40N 97.80W
Re: Tropical Depression Five [Re: cieldumort]
      #95286 - Mon Sep 01 2014 05:58 PM



The official forecast track for Tropical Depression Five closely follows the dynamical model consensus, as a mid-level ridge along the northern Gulf of Mexico should steer it mostly west-northwest and into eastern Mexico. Cyclonic flow around the tropical cyclone will enhance showers and storms in south Texas this week, and some of them could become heavy at times.

It is possible that as Five is still forming, center reformations may occur, which could affect her forecast track, as well as Five's duration over the open water.


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