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Azores #96L fails to complete transition into a Sub-Tropical Storm. Elsewhere, weak low pressure in Caribbean may linger into next week.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 40 (Nate) , Major: 58 (Maria) Florida - Any: 68 (Irma) Major: 68 (Irma)
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Archives >> 2014 Storm Forum

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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Area of Concern - Hurricane Gonzalo
      #95328 - Sun Oct 12 2014 11:51 AM

A small but rapidly developing tropical disturbance (Invest 90L) was located at 16.7N 57.4W at 12/12Z - or about 250 miles east of the northern Lesser Antilles. Movement is to the west at 8 knots and sustained winds are at 30 knots. Central pressure is 1009MB. SSTs are 30C and windshear is light. This system is expected to become a Tropical Depression (or Tropical Storm) later today. A Hurricane Recon has been dispatched to check out the system. If it intensifies as expected it will be classified as Tropical Storm Gonzalo. The system should pass near Antigua shortly after sunrise Monday morning with winds of 35 to 45 knots (40mph with isolated gusts to 50mph). Rainfall amounts of two to four inches are likely in the central and northern Lesser Antilles and the Virgin Islands with higher amounts over Puerto Rico as the tropical cyclone intensifies and passes to the north of Puerto Rico late Monday into Tuesday. A movement to the west northwest is expected over the next few days. The system has the potential for rapid intensification and should reach hurricane strength north of the Greater Antilles.

Caribbean Weather Reports

Caribbean and Virgin Islands Webcams

San Juan Long Range Radar Loop

Antilles Weather Radar Loop
ED

(Title updated to reflect current storm status.)

Edited by Ed Dunham (Wed Oct 15 2014 01:35 AM)


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MichaelA
Weather Analyst


Reged: Thu
Posts: 855
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL 27.83N 82.69W
Re: Area of Interest - Invest 90L [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #95329 - Sun Oct 12 2014 01:34 PM

Simply judging by the satellite presentation, it looks to be a TS (or near TS) already. Models all seem to agree that it will recurve well before affecting the mainland.

--------------------
Michael
2017: 15/9/4
2017 Actual: 17/10/6


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: Area of Interest - Tropical Storm Gonzalo [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #95330 - Sun Oct 12 2014 02:02 PM

System was upgraded to Tropical Storm Gonzalo at 12/1730Z. Watches/Warnings have been updated as follows:

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...CULEBRA...AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GUADELOUPE
* DESIRADE
* LES SAINTES
* MARIE GALANTE
* ST. MARTIN
* ST. BARTHELEMY
* ST. MAARTIN
* SABA
* ST. EUSTATIUS
* BARBUDA
* ANTIGUA
* ANGUILLA
* ST. KITTS
* NEVIS
* MONTSERRAT
* PUERTO RICO
* VIEQUES
* CULEBRA
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS

ED

Edited by Ed Dunham (Sun Oct 12 2014 06:20 PM)


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: Area of Concern - Tropical Storm Gonzalo [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #95335 - Mon Oct 13 2014 02:38 PM

The HURRICANE WATCH has been updated to a HURRICANE WARNING for the BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. In addition, THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR ANGUILLA. THE GOVERNMENT OF ST. MAARTIN HAS ALSO ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR ST. MAARTIN.

Gonzalo rapidly intensified just before a small but powerful center made landfall directly over Antigua at about 1330Z (0930AST). Antigua & Barbuda Weather Service reported a sustained wind speed of 67mph with a gust to 87mph.

Schools were closed today on Saint Maarten. At 18Z the winds were gusting to 45mph.

St Maarten Weather Observations

ED


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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
Re: Area of Concern - Tropical Storm Gonzalo [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #95336 - Mon Oct 13 2014 05:23 PM

Hurricane Gonzalo at 5pm and Invest 91L is back on floater.

A lot going on.

Recon may have sealed the upgrade, however Gonzalo looking impressive on satellite imagery as he passes through the islands intensifying as he goes.

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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JoshuaK
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 153
Loc: Central Florida 28.12N 81.99W
Re: Area of Concern - Tropical Storm Gonzalo [Re: LoisCane]
      #95337 - Tue Oct 14 2014 06:34 AM

After a night of rapid intensification, this morning finds Gonzalo on the cusp of a major hurricane with winds of 110 mph. The long term forecast has Gonzalo moving very near Bermuda while on a weakening trend.

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Psyber
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 156
Loc: Ontario, Canada
Re: Area of Concern - Tropical Storm Gonzalo [Re: JoshuaK]
      #95346 - Thu Oct 16 2014 03:28 PM

I haven't seen a new post from ED so i'll post in here.

AT 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE GONZALO WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 26.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.5 WEST. GONZALO IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED LATER
TODAY. A NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION WITH AN ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN
SPEED IS FORECAST THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...
THE CENTER OF GONZALO WILL BE NEAR BERMUDA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 145 MPH...230 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GONZALO IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE COMMON IN MAJOR
HURRICANES...AND ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR WITH GONZALO THROUGH TONIGHT.
SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST ON FRIDAY...BUT GONZALO IS EXPECTED TO BE
A DANGEROUS HURRICANE WHEN IT MOVES NEAR BERMUDA. STEADY WEAKENING
SHOULD BEGIN BY LATE FRIDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150
MILES...240 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 942 MB...27.82 INCHES...
BASED ON THE LAST REPORT FROM AN EARLIER NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER
MISSION.

Holy crap. Gonzalo went strong fast. Heh did you see some of the tracks not on the official NHC ones? A lot of them had him going straight at Portugal or France.

Lets hope it's a fish spinner and not a Bermuda spinner. It went big pretty fast.


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: Area of Concern - Hurricane Gonzalo [Re: Psyber]
      #95347 - Fri Oct 17 2014 01:00 AM

Gonzalo has weakened somewhat this evening and the eye is beginning to elongate so additional weakening is likely on Friday - but Gonzalo should still pass near Bermuda as a Cat II hurricane and pass just offshore of southeast Newfoundland late Saturday night as a Cat I hurricane transitioning into an extratropical system.
ED


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: Area of Concern - Hurricane Gonzalo [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #95350 - Fri Oct 17 2014 10:51 AM

Latest satellite images suggest that Gonzalo will pass just offshore about 35 miles to the southeast of Bermuda,however, track 'wobbles' are unpredictable and any movement later today that is more to the north northeast could bring the center closer to the main island.
ED

Bermuda Weather Observations


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MichaelA
Weather Analyst


Reged: Thu
Posts: 855
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL 27.83N 82.69W
Re: Area of Concern - Hurricane Gonzalo [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #95351 - Fri Oct 17 2014 10:59 AM

If the center passes to the SE of Bermuda, that would certainly lessen the impact somewhat. It appeared that it would pass to the NW yesterday which would have placed Bermuda on the stronger side of the storm. At any rate, Bermuda is certainly in for quite a lashing later today and tonight.

--------------------
Michael
2017: 15/9/4
2017 Actual: 17/10/6


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doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 943
Loc: parrish,fl 27.53N 82.44W
Re: Area of Concern - Hurricane Gonzalo [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #95352 - Fri Oct 17 2014 12:10 PM

Not to quibble with you but I see the north and eastern eyewall passing directly over the island...it looks like a direct hit to me. The forecast point of the track is directly north of the island and I cannot see how the island will not catch the brunt of this.

--------------------
doug


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: Area of Concern - Hurricane Gonzalo [Re: doug]
      #95354 - Fri Oct 17 2014 03:17 PM

It was just a wobble in the track and indeed Bermuda radar shows pretty much a direct hit in a few more hours. Latest AF Recon at 20Z indicates that the slow weakening process continues with landfall winds likely to be at Cat II. Since Gonzalo was a Major Hurricane for such a long time, the sea rise and wave heights are going to be significant on the south shore.
ED


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Psyber
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 156
Loc: Ontario, Canada
Re: Area of Concern - Hurricane Gonzalo [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #95356 - Sat Oct 18 2014 01:58 AM

I'm looking at webcams and things were bent horizontal everywhere in Bermuda for quite some time. Looks like pretty much a direct hit. Is the storm surge coming in as an H2 or an H3?

Definitely a real wobbler this one is. I'm concerned about the strengthening and possibility of hitting eastern United Provinces of Canuckistan where I live.

I have a ton of family on the coast as fishermen or people who live there, fly to Fort McMurray, Alberta oil-sands for 14 days of every month because so much of the fish industry has died. If it hits even as a TS at the wrong time, it'll be REALLY dangerous there in Labrador. The tides there are EXTREME and any storm surge might create a horrible effect.

Edited by Psyber (Sat Oct 18 2014 02:01 AM)


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