doug
Weather Analyst
Reged: Mon
Posts: 992
Loc: parrish,fl
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Some models are suggesting a lowering of pressures in the SW GOM/BOC in about 7 days. I think if the mainland gets a hit this year it will come from something like this...
Edited by MikeC (Mon Oct 20 2014 02:03 PM)
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MikeC
Admin
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Posts: 4360
Loc: Orlando, FL
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Quote:
Some models are suggesting a lowering of pressures in the SW GOM/BOC in about 7 days. I think if the mainland gets a hit this year it will come from something like this...
The finally mentions this in the Outlook, and I believe this one may be worth watching for south/sw Florida even, but still lounge territory. It has a pretty impressive visible circulation already.
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MikeC
Admin
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Loc: Orlando, FL
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The 12Z showing it in the straits and then getting pulled up into the front. (Although it does hint at a nw Carib storm to watch for next week as well) Euro is south of Cuba Both of the more reliable models are keeping it south of Florida. But it's still a bit early, so it will need to be watched throughout the week.
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MikeC
Admin
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Loc: Orlando, FL
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With the 18Z runs it seems the trend is for some of the energy from the system to be caught up with the front approaching, which may bring some rain to parts of south Florida, but it keeps the main core of the system in the Northwest Caribbean for a while, which drags out the process a bit, and means nothing tropical this weekend, but next week things could change a bit, so it'll have to be watched quite a while. Maybe mid to late next week/Halloween?
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craigm
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 326
Loc: Palm City, Florida
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Here is a pretty good analysis of TD9's future
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lKs9dhsFahA&feature=player_embedded
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Why I'm here:
Weather hobbyist
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doug
Weather Analyst
Reged: Mon
Posts: 992
Loc: parrish,fl
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It would seem that the energy has rapidly transferred into the western Caribbean. In fact the current picture suggests that there is a low immediately east of Yucatan/Belieze reforming. The trough that has pushed south over Florida and the GOM may be stronger than anticipated and the whole system is now rapidly being pushed ENE...If correct then a weak system will cross Cuba and proceed into the SE Atlantic and out to sea.
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doug
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MikeC
Admin
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Posts: 4360
Loc: Orlando, FL
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Based on where the remains are now, I don't see anything coming from this at all except some rain, next to no chance of it reforming now.
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IsoFlame
Weather Guru
Reged: Wed
Posts: 174
Loc: One block off the Atlantic Oce...
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Same thoughts here. Regardless of tropical activity, looking ahead past the next FROPA (progged around Halloween eve) I think Fla east coast may be in for an extended period of strong NE'erlies with high surf and possibly some coastal erosion in early November if the is on track this far out.
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CoCoRaHS Weather Observer (FL-VL-42) & Surf Forecaster: https://www.surf-station.com/north-florida-surf-forecast-3/
Edited by IsoFlame (Fri Oct 24 2014 05:38 PM)
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