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Azores #96L fails to complete transition into a Sub-Tropical Storm. Elsewhere, weak low pressure in Caribbean may linger into next week.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 47 (Nate) , Major: 65 (Maria) Florida - Any: 75 (Irma) Major: 75 (Irma)
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Archives >> 2014 News Talkbacks

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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 3888
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Tropical Depression Nine Moving over the Yucatan from the West
      #95360 - Mon Oct 20 2014 07:35 AM

5AM Update 22 October 2014
Tropical Depression 9 formed from 93L late last night and is now moving generally eastward over toward the Yucatan.

A tropical storm warning is up in Mexico there from Celestun to Frontera. Beyond this it is expected to weaken over the peninsula and re-emerge int he northwest Caribbean, where it becomes a bit more muddled. It is likely to dissipate by then.

If Florida receives any part of whatever becomes of TD#9, it would likely be mid to late next week.

Original Update
Hurricane Gonzalo has transitioned into extra-tropical and the remnants are moving quickly near Scotland, and Ana has moved to the west of the Hawaiian Islands. Ana did bring a lot of rough surf and rain to the Islands. (around 5 inches to Honolulu)

It's late October, but there are two areas currently being watched in the Atlantic, one in the far eastern Atlantic, 92L is likely to remain out to sea , and only has about a 30% chance to develop.

The other one, 93L is in the Gulf in the Bay of Campeche, and also has a 30% for development over the week. The more interesting aspect of this one is that it may affect South Florida or Cuba this weekend, most likely as a rainmaker or subtropical system. It should be watched through the week.

In general the Gulf/Western Caribbean may be active over the next few weeks.

Northeast Gulf Links Southeast Composite Radar Loop (Latest Static)

Tampa Bay, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Key West, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Mobile, AL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Tallahassee FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Northwest Florida Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Gulf of Mexico Satellite Imagery

SFWMD Full Florida Radar (Includes east LA, MS,AL) Loop with Storm Track

Area Forecast Discussions: New Orleans - Mississippi/Alabama/Pensacola - Panhandle/Tallahassee - Tampa/West Central Florida

94L Event Related Links


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of 94L


stormplotthumb_10.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 94L (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 94L (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of 94L

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 94L
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 94L -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)


Tropical Depression Nine Event Related Links


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of TD#9


stormplotthumb_9.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of TD#9 (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of TD#9 (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of TD#9

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for TD#9
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on TD#9 -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)





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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: Tropical Depression Nine Moving over the Yucatan from the West [Re: MikeC]
      #95363 - Wed Oct 22 2014 10:53 AM

ADMIN NOTE
NOAA SSD Satellite Imagery has not been updated since 20/2145Z (about 36 hours ago). For current satellite images you can use NASA or SSEC links.

NASA MSFC Gulf/Caribbean IR Image

UW Madison SSEC North America IR Image

ED


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doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 943
Loc: parrish,fl 27.53N 82.44W
Re: Tropical Depression Nine Moving over the Yucatan from the West [Re: MikeC]
      #95364 - Wed Oct 22 2014 12:14 PM

Welcome to the most interesting and challenging system of the year, with long term circumstances running from dangerous tropical cyclone in the Gulf in about 7 days to "gone baby gone". in a few days...
all anybody can say right now is "time will tell".

--------------------
doug


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Psyber
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 156
Loc: Ontario, Canada
Re: Tropical Depression Nine Moving over the Yucatan from the West [Re: doug]
      #95366 - Wed Oct 22 2014 12:23 PM

Really what's obviously going to tell us is if it spins up in the Carribean. I'm not convinced it's going to move NE very fast once it comes back over the Yucitan. The sheer is fairly light east which has allowed it to stay a TD. The jetstream might just slow the high coming enough to give this some legs. It's a time thing really. The longer it boils, the more north I see it going IF it even makes it fully into warm water. South Florida residents should definitely be put on notice for this.

Edited by Psyber (Wed Oct 22 2014 03:22 PM)


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