Current Radar or Satellite Image

Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane CenterHurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995


Azores #96L fails to complete transition into a Sub-Tropical Storm. Elsewhere, weak low pressure in Caribbean may linger into next week.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 43 (Nate) , Major: 61 (Maria) Florida - Any: 71 (Irma) Major: 71 (Irma)
None
COMMUNICATION
STORM DATA
CONTENT
FOLLOW US
ADS
Login to remove ads

 


Archives >> 2014 Forecast Lounge

Jump to first unread post. Pages: 1
doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 943
Loc: parrish,fl 27.53N 82.44W
93L Forecast Lounge
      #95353 - Fri Oct 17 2014 12:26 PM

Some models are suggesting a lowering of pressures in the SW GOM/BOC in about 7 days. I think if the mainland gets a hit this year it will come from something like this...

Edited by MikeC (Mon Oct 20 2014 02:03 PM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 3888
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Re: Possible weakness in SW GOM/BOC ? [Re: doug]
      #95358 - Sun Oct 19 2014 12:14 AM

Quote:

Some models are suggesting a lowering of pressures in the SW GOM/BOC in about 7 days. I think if the mainland gets a hit this year it will come from something like this...




The NHC finally mentions this in the Outlook, and I believe this one may be worth watching for south/sw Florida even, but still lounge territory. It has a pretty impressive visible circulation already.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 3888
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Re: 93L Forecast Lounge [Re: doug]
      #95361 - Mon Oct 20 2014 02:08 PM

The 12Z GFS showing it in the straits and then getting pulled up into the front. (Although it does hint at a nw Carib storm to watch for next week as well) Euro is south of Cuba Both of the more reliable models are keeping it south of Florida. But it's still a bit early, so it will need to be watched throughout the week.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 3888
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Re: 93L Forecast Lounge [Re: doug]
      #95362 - Mon Oct 20 2014 06:19 PM

With the 18Z runs it seems the trend is for some of the energy from the system to be caught up with the front approaching, which may bring some rain to parts of south Florida, but it keeps the main core of the system in the Northwest Caribbean for a while, which drags out the process a bit, and means nothing tropical this weekend, but next week things could change a bit, so it'll have to be watched quite a while. Maybe mid to late next week/Halloween?

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
craigm
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 302
Loc: Palm City, Florida 27.17N 80.27W
Re: 93L Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #95367 - Wed Oct 22 2014 12:47 PM

Here is a pretty good analysis of TD9's future

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lKs9dhsFahA&feature=player_embedded

--------------------
Why I'm here:
Frances,Jeanne,Wilma,worked on Andrew damage


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 943
Loc: parrish,fl 27.53N 82.44W
Re: 93L Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #95368 - Thu Oct 23 2014 09:56 AM

It would seem that the energy has rapidly transferred into the western Caribbean. In fact the current picture suggests that there is a low immediately east of Yucatan/Belieze reforming. The trough that has pushed south over Florida and the GOM may be stronger than anticipated and the whole system is now rapidly being pushed ENE...If correct then a weak system will cross Cuba and proceed into the SE Atlantic and out to sea.

--------------------
doug


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 3888
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Re: 93L Forecast Lounge [Re: doug]
      #95369 - Thu Oct 23 2014 10:53 AM

Based on where the remains are now, I don't see anything coming from this at all except some rain, next to no chance of it reforming now.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
IsoFlame
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 53
Loc: One block off the Atlantic Oce... 29.15N 80.97W
Re: 93L Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #95370 - Fri Oct 24 2014 05:36 PM

Same thoughts here. Regardless of tropical activity, looking ahead past the next FROPA (progged around Halloween eve) I think Fla east coast may be in for an extended period of strong NE'erlies with high surf and possibly some coastal erosion in early November if the GFS is on track this far out.

Edited by IsoFlame (Fri Oct 24 2014 05:38 PM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Pages: 1



Extra information
0 registered and 1 anonymous users are browsing this forum.

Moderator:  MikeC, Ed Dunham, danielw 

Print Topic

Forum Permissions
      You cannot start new topics
      You cannot reply to topics
      HTML is disabled
      UBBCode is enabled

Rating:
Topic views: 6048

Rate this topic

Jump to

Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources. 
CFHC's main servers are currently located at
Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well. Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center