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Azores #96L fails to complete transition into a Sub-Tropical Storm. Elsewhere, weak low pressure in Caribbean may linger into next week.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 44 (Nate) , Major: 62 (Maria) Florida - Any: 71 (Irma) Major: 71 (Irma)
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MikeCAdministrator
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Reged: Sun
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Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Invest 94L Nearing Nicaragua/Honduras. Today Marks Nine Years for Florida
      #95371 - Sun Oct 26 2014 08:24 AM

11PM EDT 26 October 2014 Update


Late this evening, Invest 94L broke completely free from its prior frontal merger while simultaneously encountering a very favorable environment for organization. Even though official agencies currently advertise the small-sized tropical low as 35 MPH and 1007mb, a WindSat pass from 2306Z suggested that max sustained winds may have already been stronger at that time, and since then the low has consistently pulsed up more deep convection as it nears the borders of Nicaragua and Honduras.

Even if not a tropical storm, Invest 94L has the potential to create dangerous torrential rains and be accompanied by potentially damaging wind gusts as it pushes closer to and/or inland overnight.

Ciel

Original Post
Today marks nine years since the last Hurricane to make landfall in Florida, Wilma. It crossed over near Cape Romano in southwest Florida around 6 AM in the morning and tore across southern Florida and out near Ft. Lauderdale. Damaging areas there and around from a west to east storm. 2005 was also the year of Katrina, which crossed south Florida before making its way toward the Louisiana and Mississippi Gulf coasts.

Wilma also held the record low pressure for the Atlantic while it was in the Northwest Caribbean.

This year had hurricane Arthur that crossed over parts of the outer banks of North Carolina, but nothing again for Florida.

The year before Wilma was the infamous 4 storm year, but...

Since then, a few tropical storms, but no hurricanes, major or otherwise, have made landfall anywhere in Florida. And this season, with only a month to go and generally unfavorable conditions, looks to continue that record trend.

This record "hurricane drought" is unusual, but doesn't change the odds for systems in the future. It does likely keep more people complacent about being storm proof, or just not having the experience of an actual But in general the lack of hurricanes to hit has been a very good thing, and we hope it continues to 10 years next season.

Next year will mark the 20th year for Flhurricane, and nearly half of that hasn't seen any hurricanes in Florida. We plan on staying around for at least the next 10 years. Activity on the site is directly related to the storms in Florida, so the site has been stagnant for most of the drought.

94L is meandering around, and likely won't ever fully develop, just a rain event for the areas there.


94L Event Related Links


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of 94L


stormplotthumb_10.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 94L (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 94L (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of 94L

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 94L
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 94L -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)


Edited by cieldumort (Mon Oct 27 2014 08:24 AM)


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