doug
Weather Analyst
Reged: Mon
Posts: 991
Loc: parrish,fl
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While it is not unheard of to get strong fronts down the Florida peninsula, the recent front which set a few record low settings and even threatened to have record low maximum temps seems to have had an impact even deep into the tropical areas where it is most likely to support development of late season tropical systems. does this suggest the door has closed to be at most only partially ajar, and no longer open?
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doug
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B.C.Francis
Storm Tracker
Reged: Sat
Posts: 323
Loc: Indiatlantic Florida
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Good question . I think the earth is wobbling a bit. This might be the answer.
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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In an attempt to provide a more sensible answer, I think that its reasonable to assume that the door on this season has closed. The arctic blast of a few days ago really cooled down the SSTs in the western Atlantic below the normal threshold that would support tropical cyclogenesis. The Florida hurricane drought will set a new record in a couple of days - and that is perhaps the most significant story of this season.
ED
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IsoFlame
Weather Guru
Reged: Wed
Posts: 174
Loc: One block off the Atlantic Oce...
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Yes, that is a phenomenal run and the takeaway from 2014.
Though it appears the obese dame has sang for the season, the pesky stationary front extending north into the Atlantic from Puerto Rico is forecast to weaken into a surface trough today, then a closed low could develop Thursday and possibly deepen into a subtropical low departing in the open Atlantic well east of the Bahamas by Friday. Without the early/strong fronts scouring out moisture and heat in the GOMEX and SW Atlantic, this activity could've been much closer to home.
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CoCoRaHS Weather Observer (FL-VL-42) & Surf Forecaster: https://www.surf-station.com/north-florida-surf-forecast-3/
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