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Archives >> 2015 Storm Forum

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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Outlook for 2015
      #95383 - Thu Jan 01 2015 12:17 AM

SST trends, and even SST climatology, suggest about a 65% probability of at least a firm El Nino event during the heart of the Atlantic 2015 hurricane season. At this early stage, analog years are difficult to determine - perhaps something similar to the 1987 season (7/3/1). Sometimes a firm El Nino year (1953) can still produce an active Atlantic tropical cyclone season but those anomalies are rare. My current thoughts are to lean toward a season with lower than normal activity with an initial forecast of 8/5/1. With below normal SSTs forecast for the Gulf of Mexico and the western Caribbean Sea for the Spring and early Summer, an early start to the 2015 Atlantic season is not very likely. As the season approaches, feel free to add your own numbers in our annual attempt to quantify the numbers for the upcoming season. Rational for your forecast is not required and you can adjust your numbers as often as you wish until this thread closes on June 1st. At the end of the 2015 season we'll revisit our numbers and see how well we did (or didn't).
Cheers,
ED


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JoshuaK
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 153
Loc: Central Florida 28.12N 81.99W
Re: Outlook for 2015 [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #95385 - Thu Jan 01 2015 09:00 PM

I've had this forecast planned out for a couple of years, focusing on the continuation of an overactive season in a year ending with a 5 that's been the trend lately. I'll either really be onto something or the worst projection ever on this site.


38/19/9


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Doombot!
Weather Guru


Reged: Sat
Posts: 138
Loc: Lakeland, Fl.
Re: Outlook for 2015 [Re: JoshuaK]
      #95386 - Fri Jan 02 2015 12:11 AM

My god! 38/19/9? New year's egg nog a bit heavy or profit? I think we're in a slower and slower period, so 8/2/1 but I've got a ½ year to amend.

I'm mostly curious to see us 20 Greek letters deep in the naming system. Happy 2015!

Quote:

I've had this forecast planned out for a couple of years, focusing on the continuation of an overactive season in a year ending with a 5 that's been the trend lately. I'll either really be onto something or the worst projection ever on this site.


38/19/9




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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: Outlook for 2015 [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #95387 - Fri Jan 02 2015 02:09 AM

The primary reason that we do this is to see who did the best job of guesstimating the seasonal activity in the Atlantic basin. Another reason is to see if we, as a group, can show any improvement in our average outlook for the season, i.e. have we learned anything (or not) over time - so with that second goal in mind, to avoid an unfair bias against the other participants, your numbers will not be used when the average of all inputs is finalized. However, your numbers will certainly be used in the individual scoring so your inputs will be evaluated with all of the other inputs when the season comes to an end. Note that nothing meteorologically suggests an all-time record number of storms for 2015 in the Atlantic basin.
ED


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JoshuaK
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 153
Loc: Central Florida 28.12N 81.99W
Re: Outlook for 2015 [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #95388 - Sat Jan 03 2015 11:32 PM

Well with a team average in mind I'll go ahead and drop the outlandish forecast and keep that one in my private log files for the end of the year and come up with something a little more reasoned.

After thinking on it a little while and looking over the past couple of years, I think the overall number of storms will stay low but the intensity of the storms may rise a little bit, with the exception of storms that briefly form, either close to land or in a briefly favorable environment before falling apart. Number of Major Hurricanes I'm stuck at between two and three but I'll go ahead and round up to three.

7/5/3.


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B.C.Francis
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
Posts: 313
Loc: Indiatlantic Florida 28.12N 80.58W
Re: Outlook for 2015 [Re: JoshuaK]
      #95390 - Mon Jan 26 2015 03:46 PM

6-2-1

Edited by B.C.Francis (Mon Jan 26 2015 03:55 PM)


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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 3888
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Re: Outlook for 2015 [Re: B.C.Francis]
      #95391 - Thu Feb 12 2015 09:04 AM

There have been several years in a row marked by systems that never really got their act together, with only a few exceptions. I'm going to go all 1995 on this year though, 19/11/5

The secondary calll for this year for "bonus points"" is if Florida sees a true landfalling hurricane this year. If not we get an even 10 years without one. (on 10/24) We may have an active year, but at this point I'll lean toward hitting the 10 year record. (which probably means watch out Florida)

Both predictions are 100% unscientific.


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: Outlook for 2015 [Re: MikeC]
      #95392 - Thu Feb 19 2015 02:09 AM

It is difficult to find a realistic analog year for the 2015 season. Right now, 1957 is the only season that remotely matches what 2015 could be like. Given the unique SST pattern (both current and forecast), the seasonal forecasts from the various agencies are probably going to have quite a range from very quiet to very busy. Its quite possible that Florida will indeed hit the 10 year record of no landfalling hurricanes.
ED


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: Outlook for 2015 [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #95394 - Tue Mar 10 2015 01:37 AM

Since 1950 there have only been three years that had an El Nino event last for the entire year: 1953, 1969 and 1987. With an El Nino event about to verify (five straight months) there is a good possibility that 2015 could become the fourth year that this has happened since 1950. 1957 is no longer a viable analog year, but two of the active El Nino years, 1953 and 1969, are looking like possible analog years for this upcoming season. The other two are 1977 and 1991. With the exception of 1953 and 1969, no other year with a moderate El Nino has produced above normal tropical cyclone activity, however, 1958 did have an average number of storms (10/7/5), so about 25% of the time an El Nino season can still produce an active season in the Atlantic basin. The latest SST forecasts (issued 3/2/15) suggest that above normal SSTs will exist in the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean Sea for the entire 2015 Atlantic tropical cyclone season - so an early season storm is certainly possible this year - and that would also be true for a late season storm or two.

Current Analog Years
1977 6//5/1
1969 18/12/5
1991 8/4/2
1953 13/6/4

Average of the Analog Years is 11/7/3.

With a nudge from the 'potential' for a slightly busier season, I'll bump up my forecast to 9/6/2.

Remember, if you have already posted your forecast you can change it, if you wish, right up until the thread closes on June 1st.
Cheers,
ED


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M.A.
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 94
Loc: Vero Beach, Fl 27.64N 80.38W
Re: Outlook for 2015 [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #95396 - Sat Mar 14 2015 10:20 AM

11/6/2

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doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 943
Loc: parrish,fl 27.53N 82.44W
Re: Outlook for 2015 [Re: M.A.]
      #95403 - Thu Apr 09 2015 03:51 PM

I will average the two (CSU/TSR) and post 9/4/2

I seem to recall an increase in precipitation along California coast In previous strong El-Nino years. For their sake lets hope so anyway...

--------------------
doug

Edited by doug (Thu Apr 09 2015 03:52 PM)


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: Outlook for 2015 [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #95404 - Wed Apr 15 2015 12:13 AM

1977 is starting to look like a strong analog year - so I'm going to drop my numbers back to my original forecast of 8/5/1.
ED


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Doombot!
Weather Guru


Reged: Sat
Posts: 138
Loc: Lakeland, Fl.
Re: Outlook for 2015 [Re: Doombot!]
      #95416 - Wed May 06 2015 08:50 AM

I can't edit my January post, but 8/2/1 seems low, especially since we're about to pop one in early may - amending to 10-4-2

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stormtiger
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 73
Loc: Baton Rouge, La.
Re: Outlook for 2015 [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #95424 - Thu May 07 2015 11:15 AM

I believe things will continue to be slow on the high end; however, the trend to name more of the weaker disturbances TSs will continue.

I'm going with 11/3/2 but unfortunately I believe on of the two will bring some grief early on in the season to the Corpus/Galveston area.

Out side of the one big storm, I think we'll see three or four TS hit the continental US mostly on the GOM side of Florida.
I think the Caribbean will be relatively quiet. The Atlantic Coast will see below normal activity. There will be one major hurricane that will be a fish spinner.

Florida will continue their streak of good fortune.


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berrywr
Weather Analyst


Reged: Fri
Posts: 387
Loc: Opelika, AL 32.71N 85.23W
Re: Outlook for 2015 [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #95427 - Thu May 07 2015 11:47 PM

It's expected to be an even duller season than 2014; cooler AO SSTs and El Nino expected this summer and autumn; it could be the dullest in a good long time.

Edited by Ed Dunham (Fri May 08 2015 01:28 AM)


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: Outlook for 2015 [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #95432 - Mon May 11 2015 01:05 PM

The latest NOAA SST Outlook (issued today) anticipates a strong El Nino of 1.5 to 2C by August that lasts for the remainder of 2015 (at least). This adds 1987 to the analog years - perhaps the best analog year for 2015. The 1987 totals were 7/3/1. 1987 had a tropical depression in May, but the first named storm did not develop until August. Its not uncommon for seasons which have an early season (May) storm to go quiet for a couple of months before the next storm shows up.

So far, inputs on the site for this thread have been on the slow side - which is also common when a quiet season is anticipated by meteorological agencies. You still have until the end of the month to post your own numbers for the season.
ED


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Lamar-Plant City
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 348
Loc: Plant City, Florida 28.01N 82.12W
Re: Outlook for 2015 [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #95433 - Mon May 11 2015 03:12 PM

After my disastrous tilt against the trend last season, I think I am going to tow the line a bit more for this one. El Nino all year is the biggest influence on my prediction of 8/4/2. Nice reverse number progression as well. I am just praying those of us in Florida escape for another year and set a new record!!

--------------------
If you don't like the weather, wait 5 minutes...
2017 Season Prediction: 16/7/3


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craigm
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 302
Loc: Palm City, Florida 27.17N 80.27W
Re: Outlook for 2015 [Re: Lamar-Plant City]
      #95438 - Fri May 22 2015 11:28 AM

After reading this excellent fairly current Wiki I am going with
8/2/1

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015_Atlantic_hurricane_season

--------------------
Why I'm here:
Frances,Jeanne,Wilma,worked on Andrew damage


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: Outlook for 2015 [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #95439 - Sun May 24 2015 09:09 AM

A strong El Nino is now expected this Summer and it should last for the rest of 2015 (and its quite likely that it will extend well into 2016). I've made a final tweak to my numbers: 8/4/1.

1991 (8/4/2) looks like another excellent analog year for 2015. If a moderate to strong El Nino persists through the upcoming winter, 1992 and 1983 are likely analog years for 2016.

The season begins soon - so you still have one week remaining to add your own seasonal totals to this thread before it closes on June 1st.
Cheers,
ED

Edited by Ed Dunham (Sun May 24 2015 05:13 PM)


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GlenJohnson
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 58
Loc: Waldo Florida 29.79N 82.17W
Re: Outlook for 2015 [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #95440 - Mon May 25 2015 03:52 PM

Two thoughts here. One, it may be a slow season, but the water around Florida is so warm if one hits, it could boost it into a real killer. Two, I've been wrong so many times, I'm going with 11/6/3 and that's based on my birthday. Nuff said.

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