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Archives 2010s >> 2015 News Talkbacks

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MikeCAdministrator
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Hurricane Danny forms in the Central Atlantic
      #95568 - Tue Aug 18 2015 10:19 AM

11:00 PM EDT 23 August 2015 Update
Tropical Storm watches are now up for Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands.

Danny is much weaker today, but seems to be holding at a 50mph tropical storm. The center of circulation is exposed, but convection continues to fire vigorously on the northeast quadrant. An unusually high amount of lightning can also be found in the system. It is still forecast to weaken, but storms of this small size can pull surprises.



8:00 PM EDT 22 August 2015 Update

Above: Danny is being overtaken by very dry air

Shear and dry air are starting to take a very significant toll on Danny. Over the past several hours recon has found no indications of hurricane force winds at the surface, and the 8PM Advisory now shows a - possibly generous - 65MPH tropical storm. Given the current drying trend, Danny will need to take advantage of the cooler atmosphere overnight to hopefully refire convection and build up some defenses, or could become a remnant low by this time tomorrow.

Given that the LLC is now exposed and the cyclone is in the process of becoming decoupled, the track is taking more of a due west if not west-southwest heading. Regardless of the near-term, Danny will likely still bring much needed rains and some blustery winds to the islands ahead.
Ciel

2:00 PM EDT 21 August 2015 Update
Recon has confirmed that Danny became a Major Hurricane today, and NHC has put out a 2PM update with advisory winds of 115MPH and a central pressure of 974mb. Shear and dry air are already starting to affect the micro-sized hurricane, and mostly weakening is now forecast for the next five days.

With luck, Danny's winds decline substantially, but the cyclone still brings much needed rains to the islands ahead.
Ciel

7:00AM EDT 21 August 2015 Update
Danny continues its course, official an 85MPH hurricane (Potentially stronger). It's core is very visible on satellite and very small.





Dry air and shear should begin to affect Danny Saturday afternoon and especially Sunday.

The Leeward islands of the Caribbean should continue to watch this system.

Research aircraft are scheduled to be out there this afternoon and air force recon are scheduled to be out there tomorrow afternoon.

11:00AM EDT 20 August 2015 Update
Tropical Storm Danny has been upgraded to Hurricane Danny.



97L is also being tracked off the east coast, and another wave off Africa has a 20% chance to develop over the next 5 days.

Folks in the northern Lesser Antilles and Puerto Rico and Hispaniola should continue to monitor the progress of Hurricane Danny over the weekend.

9:30AM EDT 20 August 2015 Update
Tropical Storm Danny struggled most of yesterday with dry air intrusion along with a small core. On the flipside the small core allows things like the image below shows:



This is quite a drastic difference in the last few hours as Danny has started intensifying somewhat rapidly. 992 mb is the new estimate, and it appears an eye is developing, all within the last few hours.


Those in the Caribbean islands should watch Danny closely, but the system is still expected to hit a wall of shear once in the Caribbean and greatly weaken or dissipate.


Original Update
The system being tracked as TD4 has become this season's fourth Tropical Storm, and the first Cape Verde system to organize this year.

The National Hurricane Center will be initiating advisories on the system at 5 PM EDT.



The system is forecast to become a category 2 hurricane by Sunday. The name is Danny. And if the forecast is correct, it would be the most southerly hurricane to form since Tomas in 2010.

93C near Hawaii is also worth watching there.

flhurricane Antilles Radar Recording of Danny approach

flhurricane East Caribbean Radar Recording of Danny approach

Danny Event Related Links

Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of of Danny - New for 2018


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Danny


stormplotthumb_4.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page


float4latest.gif
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Danny (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Danny (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of Danny

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Danny
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Danny -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)


Invest 98L Event Related Links

Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of of 98L - New for 2018


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of 98L


stormplotthumb_5.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page


float5latest.gif
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 98L (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 98L (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of 98L

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 98L
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 98L -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)


Since Danny is a long track storm, make sure to check out the Danny Forecast Lounge for talk about long range model runs and guesses at where and when it may go along with how strong.

StormCarib Reports from the Caribbean Islands

Caribbean Weather Observations

Barbados Brohav Weather Fax

Caribbean Broadcast Corporation (TV/Radio from Antilles)

San Juan, PR Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Various Caribbean Radio Stations

DR1 Dominican Republic Hurricanes

Info for Kilo near Hawaii

Central Pacific Hurricane Center

Radar:


South Shore Big Island, HI Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Kohala, HI (Big Island) Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Molokai, HI (Maui/Oahu) Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Kauai, HI Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

River/Stream Gauges in Hawaii

Hawaii Power Outage Map

Hawaiian Media:

TV:

KITV 4 - Honolulu (ABC)

KHON 2 - Honolulu (Fox)

Hawaii News Now KGMB 9 (CBS)/KHNL 13 (NBC)

Newspaper:

Hawaii 24/7 (Big Island Newspaper)

Hawaii Tribune-Herald

Maui News

Honolulu Star Advertiser

Other:

Big Island News Now

Hawaii Tracker Big Island News


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cieldumort
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Re: Tropical Depression Four Forms in Eastern Atlantic [Re: MikeC]
      #95570 - Tue Aug 18 2015 10:37 AM

The most recent ASCAT pass suggests Four may already be nameable, with regions of solid 30-35 knot winds.

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Hawkeyewx
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Re: Tropical Depression Four Forms in Eastern Atlantic [Re: cieldumort]
      #95571 - Tue Aug 18 2015 11:33 AM

I didn't expect the NHC to be quite so bold with the intensity forecast. Hurricane-strength systems approaching the islands from the east have been pretty rare over the last ten years.

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doug
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Re: Tropical Depression Four Forms in Eastern Atlantic [Re: cieldumort]
      #95573 - Tue Aug 18 2015 12:19 PM

This little puppy will blow right past depression stage...visible imagery is indicative of storm now IMO.

--------------------
doug


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rmbjoe1954
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Re: Tropical Depression Four Forms in Eastern Atlantic [Re: doug]
      #95574 - Tue Aug 18 2015 12:30 PM

I do not know what The NHC is seeing. I thought the Carib was a 'no go' zone. Danny may be born later today but it may also see its demise once it passes the Leeward Islands.

And hello to all.

--------------------
________2017 Forecast: 12/6/3________

There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Tropical Depression Four Forms in Eastern Atlantic [Re: rmbjoe1954]
      #95575 - Tue Aug 18 2015 01:50 PM

Quote:

I do not know what The NHC is seeing. I thought the Carib was a 'no go' zone. Danny may be born later today but it may also see its demise once it passes the Leeward Islands.

And hello to all.




It's mostly the outflow and the shield from the dry area to the north being created. I can see the strengthening in the near term (NHC forecast looks good, and the GFDL is on board with that strength also), but once it gets closer to the Caribbean it may weaken. Right now the outflow is VERY good, and this system is already looking like a Tropical Storm.


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scottsvb
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Re: Tropical Depression Four Forms in Eastern Atlantic [Re: MikeC]
      #95576 - Tue Aug 18 2015 02:12 PM

I agree with everyone here. It should be named by 5pm or 11pm. Dry air center has filled in and evening humidy increasing the T-Storms near the center. Probably 40mph with recent build up and sat apperance. I expect this also to be a hurricane in 2 days (say by Thurs night). It's still to far out to tell what lies ahead with upper level windflow in the caribbean next week.

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danielwAdministrator
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Re: Tropical Depression Four Forms in Eastern Atlantic [Re: scottsvb]
      #95577 - Tue Aug 18 2015 04:37 PM

Scott nailed it. They upgraded to Danny, no relation, for the 4 PM Advisory

Dual outflow channels, one toward the Equator and one toward the north pole are allowing the storm to tap moisture and maintain a steady state.

The outflow that I've been watching is the one toward the West. Appears to be shielding Danny from the SAL to a degree


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craigm
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Re: Tropical Depression Four Forms in Eastern Atlantic [Re: rmbjoe1954]
      #95580 - Tue Aug 18 2015 07:27 PM

Quote:

I do not know what The NHC is seeing. I thought the Carib was a 'no go' zone. Danny may be born later today but it may also see its demise once it passes the Leeward Islands.

And hello to all.



Agree with the no go through the Carib - values are lower just north of the Islands and the real test will be between 50 and 60 west. Higher shear and dry air as Danny moves out of the Monsoon trough. Stronger storm will mix the dry air more efficiently. Shear, depending on amount, is more damaging to a developing system. IMO

--------------------
Why I'm here:
Weather Junkie


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Tropical Depression Four Forms in Eastern Atlantic [Re: craigm]
      #95588 - Wed Aug 19 2015 07:09 AM

Danny pulled in some dry air overnight which slowed down the intensification run, but it will likely hit another spike later today if it can get out of the dry air. A few days out conditions get a bit worse, so should weaken a bit. I think the possibility of it rapidly intensifying is pretty low at this point.

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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: TD#4 is now Tropical Storm Danny in the Eastern Atlantic [Re: MikeC]
      #95589 - Wed Aug 19 2015 11:28 AM

Recon flights are scheduled to start around Friday.

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LoisCane
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Re: TD#4 is now Tropical Storm Danny in the Eastern Atlantic [Re: MikeC]
      #95590 - Wed Aug 19 2015 12:46 PM


shame can't get recon in there now, would be so good to have solid data

for that matter Gulfstream Jet would be nice too

seems like this storm has a very slim window to pull itself back together and i keep wondering if the original Euro was right and weaker storm travels west into Carib... tho think tangling w Haiti is less a possibility than possibly PR getting rainfall...

if it gets over the Gulfstream (days and days away..........recon is days away)

IF..

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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doug
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Re: Tropical Depression Four Forms in Eastern Atlantic [Re: MikeC]
      #95594 - Wed Aug 19 2015 03:26 PM

The storm has moistened the environment immediately around the core, and does not show the degree of dry air intrusion from the east and south that affected it earlier. It also seems to be taking more control of the large convective area east of the core, and the west side seems to be moistening up a bit...overall I would say the system should intensify within the parameters of the forecast...

--------------------
doug

Edited by doug (Wed Aug 19 2015 03:27 PM)


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OrlandoDan
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Re: Tropical Depression Four Forms in Eastern Atlantic [Re: doug]
      #95598 - Thu Aug 20 2015 02:27 AM

Seems the western side has reduced the dry air a bit in latest satellite imagery. Danny seems to be holding. Time will tell a few days out as the storm gets into a more hostile shear environment.

--------------------
Keith (1988), Charley (2004), Frances (2004) , Jeanne (2004), Fay (2008), Mathew (2016), Irma (2017), Dorian (2019)


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doug
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Re: Tropical Depression Four Forms in Eastern Atlantic [Re: doug]
      #95600 - Thu Aug 20 2015 09:15 AM

This morning there is some evidence of drier air intruding from the west, and south, and being drawn up on the east side which has caused the moisture envelope to shrink a bit, actually quite a bit, IMO. However, it is still in an overall moist envelope as it moves toward the islands and its future in the immediate depends on how it maintains that envelope.
The future depends on the dynamic that will develop with the sharp trough moving SE off CONUS and the strength and position of the upper level high pressure that Danny will need to maintain as it enters the Caribbean. All this can be followed by viewing the HD water vapor loops.

--------------------
doug


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Tropical Depression Four Forms in Eastern Atlantic [Re: doug]
      #95601 - Thu Aug 20 2015 09:25 AM

Danny hit a sweet spot recently this morning and has gone into a rather drastic intensification mode.



Not sure how long this will last, but it is a bit surprising.

Best track has the pressure down to 992.


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Tropical Depression Four Forms in Eastern Atlantic [Re: MikeC]
      #95602 - Thu Aug 20 2015 09:56 AM

Yeah looking at the microwave imagery from earlier, the structure was very good this morning, it's a safe bet for a hurricane upgrade at 11AM.

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scottsvb
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Re: Tropical Depression Four Forms in Eastern Atlantic [Re: MikeC]
      #95603 - Thu Aug 20 2015 10:05 AM

What a increase in the past 8hrs. I saw 200 miles west of Danny last night on sat imagry that T-Storms fired up... so I did assume he would be better organized this morning and say have pressure of around 995-997 and winds near 60mph...but I didn't expect this. Danny looks like a solid hurricane..infact, he looks like he could be as strong as a Cat 2. My guess is that the pressure could be as low as 982 or lower with a small compact system and eye now. These compact and small systems can really get going. Usually it does take the winds 3-12hrs to catch up to the pressure drop depending on how fast the pressure drops.

I'm really curious on what the NHC will say and put as the winds and pressure. This will be a good example of us not having Recon in to determine the actual pressure and wind speed. Sat helps but since this is so rapid, the scan might of been in the earlier stages and not give us the "Current" pressure. Now comes the educated guess of what it is "Now" by also looking at current sat. Closest Bouy won't give a exact pressure cause of the small compact system.


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danielwAdministrator
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Re: Tropical Depression Four Forms in Eastern Atlantic [Re: scottsvb]
      #95605 - Thu Aug 20 2015 11:24 AM

Closest buoy is 41041. Pressure was 1012.6 mb and falling at 1050 EDT or 30 minutes ago.
Winds NE at 14 mph
Seas 8 feet


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


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Re: Hurricane Danny forms in the Central Atlantic [Re: MikeC]
      #95606 - Thu Aug 20 2015 11:37 AM

The early morning wrap-up of Danny was quite impressive. At 1045Z, CIMSS microwave imagery still had the intensity at 45 knots but the central core and eye feature were already starting to form. Although the hurricane is small, the outflow is quite good.
ED


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