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Archives 2010s >> 2015 News Talkbacks

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MikeCAdministrator
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Loc: Orlando, FL
Erika Officially Dissipates, but Moving Inland
      #95843 - Sat Aug 29 2015 08:07 AM

1 AM 30 August 2015 Update
It appears that Erica's most recently tracked remnant LLC is now making "landfall" along the keys near Marathon tonight, prompting a Special Marine Warning for showers and thunderstorms capable of producing winds of 34 knots or greater. These showers and storms are pushing inland while spinning northeast to southwest in a cyclonic fashion around the small remnant CoC.

Old Erika LLC will likely soon merge with the boundary draped over the state, and continue to produce heavy to locally very heavy rains w/ potentially strong to severe winds.
Ciel



2 PM 29 August 2015 Update
The regeneration chance for Erika is about 40%

From the Tropical Weather Outlook:

The remnants of Erika, a trough of low pressure, are currently located near central Cuba and the central
Bahamas and moving west-northwestward at 20 to 25 mph.

This system is producing disorganized thunderstorm activity, and recent satellite wind data indicate it is producing winds to tropical storm force. Upper-level winds are currently not favorable for re-development of the system into a tropical cyclone. However, conditions may become more conducive Sunday or Monday while it moves northwestward to northward over the eastern Gulf of Mexico.

Regardless of re-development, the remnants of Erika are expected to spread locally heavy rains and gusty winds across portions of the Bahamas, central and eastern Cuba, and central and southern Florida during the next couple of days.

10:AM 29 August 2015 Update
Erika has been downgraded to a low pressure trough just north of Cuba.

Interests in the Bahamas, eastern and central Cuba, and southern and Central Florida should monitor the progress of the remnants of Erika for heavy rainfall and a small chance of regeneration once away from Cuba.

9AM 29 August 2015 Update
Erika has dissipated as a tropical cyclone, and the National Hurricane Center is going to issue a Special Advisory shortly. Tropical storm watches/warnings being discontinued.

Florida will still likely get rain from the remnants of it.

Original Update
At the 8AM National Hurricane Center Advisory, they comment that suggests Erika may be dissipating now.

With a large split in the energy and an uncertain center, (may be more of an trough now) the system could have its last advisory at 11AM. However, recon is still finding decent SMFR indicated winds at 40mph.

The adjusted their original 5AM position to match what the visible satellite showed this morning, putting it just north of extreme eastern Cuba.



This will make the "cone" east again when they update at 11 if it were to maintain itself. The reason it is so "lopsided" at 8AM is that they only update their forecast track every 6 hours. 5AM, 11AM, 5PM and 11PM. In between they just update the storms current position and warnings Sometimes you wind up with really odd track maps, like the current one, because of center reformation.

Hopefully the end of Erika is near, and Hispaniola has claimed another system. Unfortunately this also means extreme flooding in Haiti.

However the 8am position does indicate the potential for a lot of rain for Florida starting late Sunday into Monday/Tuesday.

Also in the far eastern Atlantic, 99L is being tracked, and may actually go over the Cape Verde islands.

And 10 years ago this morning, Hurricane Katrina made landfall near Buras, LA.


Erika Links

Florida Radar Recording of Erika Approach

Guantanamo Bay, Cuba Radar Recording of Erika Approach

flhurricane Cuba Radar Recording of Erika approach

flhurricane East Caribbean Radar Recording of Erika approach


flhurricane San Juan, PR Radar Recording of Erika approach

90L (Ex-Erika) Event Related Links

Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of of 90L - New for 2018


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of 90L


stormplotthumb_7.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page


float7latest.gif
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 90L (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 90L (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of 90L

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 90L
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 90L -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)


Erika Event Related Links

Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of of Erika - New for 2018


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Erika


stormplotthumb_5.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page


float5latest.gif
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Erika (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Erika (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of Erika

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Erika
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Erika -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)


99L Event Related Links

Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of of 99L - New for 2018


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of 99L


stormplotthumb_6.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page


float6latest.gif
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 99L (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 99L (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of 99L

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 99L
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 99L -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)


StormCarib Reports from the Caribbean Islands

Caribbean Weather Observations

Barbados Brohav Weather Fax

Caribbean Broadcast Corporation (TV/Radio from Antilles)

San Juan, PR Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Various Caribbean Radio Stations

DR1 Dominican Republic Hurricanes

East Florida Links Southeast Composite Radar Loop (Latest Static) South to North:

Key West, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Miami, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Melbourne, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Jacksonville, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)


Caribbean/South East Coast Satellite Imagery


SFWMD Radar Loop of South Florida with storm Track


SFWMD Full Florida Radar Loop with Storm Track


Area Forecast Discussions: FLorida Keys - Miami/South Florida - Melbourne/East Central Florida - Jacksonville/Northeast Florida -

Northeast Gulf Links Southeast Composite Radar Loop (Latest Static)

Tampa Bay, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Key West, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Mobile, AL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Tallahassee FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Northwest Florida Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Gulf of Mexico Satellite Imagery

SFWMD Full Florida Radar (Includes east LA, MS,AL) Loop with Storm Track

Area Forecast Discussions: New Orleans - Mississippi/Alabama/Pensacola - Panhandle/Tallahassee - Tampa/West Central Florida

Tampa Area Media:

Bay News 9

WFLA News 8 (NBC)

Bay Action News (ABC)

WTSP Channel 10 (CBS)

My Fox Tampa Bay

WWSB ABC 7 Sarasota

Tampa Bay Times

Tampa Bay Online

Sarasota Herald Tribune

970 WFLA Tampa News/Talk Radio
News Media (East Central Florida):

Television:

Newspapers:

News Radio:

Check local media and officials when a storm is approaching your area.
News Media (South Florida):

Television:

Newspapers:

News Radio:

Check local media and officials when a storm is approaching your area.

Florida Power Outage Maps

Duke Energy Florida Outage Map - Most of Central and Northern Florida

Florida Power and Light Outage Map (Much of South Florida)

Orlando Utilities Commision Outage Map

Tampa Electric Outage Map

JEA (Jacksonville) Outage Map

Gulf Power (Western Panhandle)

Clay Electric Outage Map (Gainsville/ North Central Florida area)

Lakeland Electric Outage Map

Peace River Electrical Cooperative outage map south Central Florida from east of Bradenton, north of North Port to West of Palm Bay and Vero Beach



Edited by cieldumort (Sun Aug 30 2015 03:31 AM)


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OrlandoDan
Storm Tracker


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Re: Erika Out of The Caribbean, Very Weak and May Dissipate [Re: MikeC]
      #95845 - Sat Aug 29 2015 08:20 AM

What are the chances of Erika regenerating around the newly spotted LLC? I see some convection in the AVN around that area.

--------------------
Keith (1988), Charley (2004), Frances (2004) , Jeanne (2004), Fay (2008), Mathew (2016), Irma (2017), Dorian (2019)


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Erika Out of The Caribbean, Very Weak and May Dissipate [Re: OrlandoDan]
      #95846 - Sat Aug 29 2015 08:22 AM

Quote:

What are the chances of Erika regenerating around the newly spotted LLC? I see some convection in the AVN around that area.




Probably 50/50. I'm watching recon like a hawk. Leaning toward Dissipation slightly though because of inflow problems thanks to Cuba. Visible Sat shows it a bit better. But flip a coin.




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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Erika Out of The Caribbean, Very Weak and May Dissipate [Re: MikeC]
      #95847 - Sat Aug 29 2015 08:39 AM

Recon seems to be returning home, it's still at a relatively low altitude, though. It didn't have enough time to do a good read around the area, unfortunately. They are flying out of Homestead for these runs.



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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Erika Out of The Caribbean, Very Weak and May Dissipate [Re: MikeC]
      #95848 - Sat Aug 29 2015 08:58 AM

And the NHC officially killed it
Erika has dissipated as a tropical cyclone. NHC will issue a Special Advisory shortly. Tropical storm watches/warnings being discontinued.


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OrlandoDan
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Re: Erika Out of The Caribbean, Very Weak and May Dissipate [Re: MikeC]
      #95849 - Sat Aug 29 2015 09:35 AM

AVN shows some convection still close to what used to be the northern LLC. What do you make of that?

--------------------
Keith (1988), Charley (2004), Frances (2004) , Jeanne (2004), Fay (2008), Mathew (2016), Irma (2017), Dorian (2019)


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Erika Out of The Caribbean, Very Weak and May Dissipate [Re: OrlandoDan]
      #95851 - Sat Aug 29 2015 10:13 AM

Quote:

AVN shows some convection still close to what used to be the northern LLC. What do you make of that?




It's smart to keep watching the remnants, and we'll probably get rain. I'm going over some of the models to see how it may happen (see the Erika lounge). Right now I don't think it will, but I can't rule it out.


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Erika Out of The Caribbean, Very Weak and May Dissipate [Re: MikeC]
      #95852 - Sat Aug 29 2015 10:30 AM

Added Power Outage Map links for Florida

Florida Power Outage Maps

Duke Energy Florida Outage Map - Most of Central and Northern Florida

Florida Power and Light Outage Map (Much of South Florida)

Orlando Utilities Commision Outage Map

Tampa Electric Outage Map

JEA (Jacksonville) Outage Map

Gulf Power (Western Panhandle)

Clay Electric Outage Map (Gainsville/ North Central Florida area)

Lakeland Electric Outage Map

Peace River Electrical Cooperative outage map south Central Florida from east of Bradenton, north of North Port to West of Palm Bay and Vero Beach

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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Erika Out of The Caribbean, Very Weak and May Dissipate [Re: MikeC]
      #95853 - Sat Aug 29 2015 10:59 AM

Remnant swirl position from this morning is booking it right now toward the west northwest. 22-25 mph.

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EMS
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Re: Erika Out of The Caribbean, Very Weak and May Dissipate [Re: MikeC]
      #95854 - Sat Aug 29 2015 11:44 AM

I may be wrong but looks like the broad swirl around 22N and 78W is moving quickly NW but trying to wrap around some convection. Will be interesting to see if it stays over water north of Cuba and slows down enough to do something.

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berrywr
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Re: Erika Out of The Caribbean, Very Weak and May Dissipate [Re: EMS]
      #95857 - Sat Aug 29 2015 12:28 PM

I saw that tiny circulation early this morning, I wouldn't be surprised if the NHC reinitiates advisories if this feature remains intact. The last couple of frames show a due west movement and if that bears itself out, this center will cross the northern coast of Cuba. I'm not sure what it is NHC is looking at in regards to decreasing shear; I don't see that with that upper low over the northern Gulf of Mexico; an upper low that has cutoff from the big deep trough that lowered humidities across the Southeast United States earlier this week and I'm here to tell you it was nice one morning here in Georgia with low temps in the low to mid 50s areawide. Not today...70 degree plus dew points are back and I have to finish cutting the grass today.

--------------------
Sincerely,

Bill Berry

"Survived Trigonometry and Calculus I"


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doug
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Re: Erika Out of The Caribbean, Very Weak and May Dissipate [Re: berrywr]
      #95859 - Sat Aug 29 2015 01:22 PM

I agree the little vortex deserves careful observation. Its movement is roughly parallel to the coast, IMO and there may be some low level circulation visible around this feature. If this is a vortex it may be one of those features that occur due to a jump

--------------------
doug


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Erika Out of The Caribbean, Very Weak and May Dissipate [Re: doug]
      #95860 - Sat Aug 29 2015 02:14 PM

40% Chance for regeneration according to the Tropical Weather Outlook.

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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Erika Out of The Caribbean, Very Weak and May Dissipate [Re: MikeC]
      #95862 - Sat Aug 29 2015 02:42 PM

Invest 90L is up, which is linked to the Ex-Erika area we are following. Not immediately sure why they did that.

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OrlandoDan
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Re: Erika Out of The Caribbean, Very Weak and May Dissipate [Re: MikeC]
      #95863 - Sat Aug 29 2015 02:55 PM

TWC saying it is proper for NHC to designate a new Invest area. 40% chance of development in next 5 days.

--------------------
Keith (1988), Charley (2004), Frances (2004) , Jeanne (2004), Fay (2008), Mathew (2016), Irma (2017), Dorian (2019)


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OrlandoDan
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Re: Erika Out of The Caribbean, Very Weak and May Dissipate [Re: OrlandoDan]
      #95864 - Sat Aug 29 2015 03:02 PM

RGB tells my mind a center is at 22.5N 77.7W or so.

--------------------
Keith (1988), Charley (2004), Frances (2004) , Jeanne (2004), Fay (2008), Mathew (2016), Irma (2017), Dorian (2019)


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doug
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Re: Erika Out of The Caribbean, Very Weak and May Dissipate [Re: OrlandoDan]
      #95865 - Sat Aug 29 2015 03:14 PM

I see signs of organization here. For example there is convection on the SW of the supposed LLC and some indication of a southerly flow toward the LLC in the SE quadrant of the apparent circulation. I also don't see the degree of shear that seems to exist west of the new area of interest. Why an invest? I think this is a distinct new LLC...that began to emerge about 2.5-3 degrees NW of the last fix on the former center when NHC called the demise...

--------------------
doug


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scottsvb
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Re: Erika Out of The Caribbean, Very Weak and May Dissipate [Re: doug]
      #95866 - Sat Aug 29 2015 03:26 PM


I don't think they should of dropped the hurricane model runs... maybe the GFDL and HWRF will be back up for the 18Z now that it's 90L


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Bloodstar
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Re: Erika Out of The Caribbean, Very Weak and May Dissipate [Re: OrlandoDan]
      #95867 - Sat Aug 29 2015 03:32 PM

I'm not sure what to make of Ex-Erika's chances, there is some shear overhead still, but that little circulation swirl has fairly decent convection around it, particularly for being near the Diurnal Minimum.

it also looks like the swirl is going to stay north of Cuba. I also think the feature is a little too small to be well represented by any of the models, so they're not going to be much help over the next little bit.

A whole lot of wait and watch.

--------------------
M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2020. (Sigh LOL)


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scottsvb
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Re: Erika Out of The Caribbean, Very Weak and May Dissipate [Re: scottsvb]
      #95868 - Sat Aug 29 2015 03:44 PM

Winds along the north central coast of Cuban now turning northerly...thus showing apporaching vortex is getting better organized. Not seeing a west wind more than the vortex LLC but maybe by Sunday morning when it gets near the Keys we will see it in visables. It would be nice if recon went back out there later tonight when it gets up to 23.7N and 80W


Update....vortex didn't sustain the convection...the speed it's traveling is really hampering it.


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doug
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Re: Erika Out of The Caribbean, Very Weak and May Dissipate [Re: scottsvb]
      #95869 - Sat Aug 29 2015 04:45 PM

this is probably lounge food, but there is an interesting feature at 21/74.9 which seems to be supporting a circulation...back to the many vortices scene...

--------------------
doug


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dolfinatic
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Re: Erika Out of The Caribbean, Very Weak and May Dissipate [Re: doug]
      #95870 - Sat Aug 29 2015 05:12 PM

definitely a turning going on there. may be the mid lvl low that has been moving in tandem behind the LLC. but may become dominant low at some point. who knows

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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Erika Officially Dissipates [Re: MikeC]
      #95873 - Sat Aug 29 2015 09:09 PM

Added Place to report conditions in your area related to the rain enhanced by Erika's remnants.

Also running a long term Full Florida Radar recording while under the influence of Erika's remnants.



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Robert
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ericka and trough. [Re: MikeC]
      #95877 - Sun Aug 30 2015 01:10 AM Attachment (418 downloads)


St. Augustine getting hammered by a storm band thingy, trough rain storm / spin, seems like the over all wave is enducing a meso scale vort up there.

Wind Direction (WDIR):SSE ( 150 deg true )Wind Speed (WSPD):37 ktsWind Gust (GST):41 ktsAtmospheric Pressure (PRES):30.12 inPressure Tendency (PTDY):+0.05 in ( Rising )Air Temperature (ATMP):79.5 °FWater Temperature (WTMP):85.5 °FDew Point (DEWP):73.8 °FHeat Index (HEAT):83.5 °FWind Speed at 10 meters (WSPD10M):35 ktsWind Speed at 20 meters (WSPD20M):39 kts
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=sauf1

Edited by Robert (Sun Aug 30 2015 01:34 AM)


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