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Azores #96L fails to complete transition into a Sub-Tropical Storm. Elsewhere, weak low pressure in Caribbean may linger into next week.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 44 (Nate) , Major: 62 (Maria) Florida - Any: 72 (Irma) Major: 72 (Irma)
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Archives >> 2015 Forecast Lounge

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cieldumort
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Reged: Mon
Posts: 1635
Loc: Austin, Tx 30.40N 97.80W
Grace Forecast Lounge
      #95905 - Thu Sep 03 2015 03:15 PM



A fairly well organized and sizable wave (Invest 91L) rolling into the far eastern Atlantic and centered near 10N 15W, well to the southeast of the Cape Verde Islands, is being tracked as an area of interest. As of 2:00PM EDT, the NHC gives this wave a 40% chance of development within 5 days, as it moves west at 15-20MPH.

This is where to post thoughts on this wave's potential for development, intensity, and forecast track. Longer range model output discussions are also appropriate here.

(Title updated to reflect change in system status.)

Edited by Ed Dunham (Sat Sep 05 2015 10:32 PM)


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craigm
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 302
Loc: Palm City, Florida 27.17N 80.27W
Re: New Wave: Invest 91L [Re: cieldumort]
      #95911 - Fri Sep 04 2015 03:36 PM

At it's present speed by Tuesday morning 91L or (Grace) should be around 45W and will probably have a similar looking track as Erika did in the same area - strength of system will determine which steering layer will be in control. Sounds like we could cut and paste from Erika's threads. Subtropical ridge is forecast to build westward again and models are indicating that for now anyway. This is all very preliminary but will add some tropical interest to our Holiday weekend. BTW keep an eye on the eastern GOM. Could be a wet weekend in FL.

--------------------
Why I'm here:
Frances,Jeanne,Wilma,worked on Andrew damage


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cieldumort
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Reged: Mon
Posts: 1635
Loc: Austin, Tx 30.40N 97.80W
Re: TD 7 Forecast Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #95914 - Sat Sep 05 2015 01:57 PM


Tropical Depression Seven


Invest 91L is now Tropical Depression Seven in the far eastern Atlantic. As a system, Seven looks to take a similar path as Erika had. However, Seven has become an officiated tropical cyclone much earlier (Erika/Six's first Advisory was issued when Six was at 14.4N 47.7W - or about where Seven is forecast to be located 100 hours from now).

This additional time over the Main Development Region could be both good and bad for Seven. On one hand, the MDR has not been a favorable location for systems to form or develop this year, as is common during El NiƱos. On the other hand, the additional duration over warm water as a TC could give Seven more time to become better organized.


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DaViking
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Tue
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Loc: Crystal River, FL
Re: Grace Forecast Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #95915 - Sat Sep 05 2015 04:41 PM

TD #7 has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Grace.

Edited by Ed Dunham (Sat Sep 05 2015 07:01 PM)


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MikeCAdministrator
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Reged: Sun
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Re: Grace Forecast Lounge [Re: DaViking]
      #95917 - Sat Sep 05 2015 08:10 PM

Grace's model runs are so far very similar to Erika's, mainly nearing the East Caribbean and totally being sheared apart.

We'll update as it gets closer or it it changes, but so far nothing to discern it from what happened with Erika.


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Grace Forecast Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #95920 - Sun Sep 06 2015 01:01 PM

12Z GFS For grace takes in on almost the exact path Erika took (and about the same intensity wise). CMC and NavGem take it north. But are less reliable. Based on the current pattern, I'd suspect the further south (and west) track is again the most likely, which will keep it weak.

Nothing really new in the models today, otherwise. NHC track looks good. Grace may have a better chance to intensify before hitting the shear than Erika did, but still will likely meet a similar fate before reaching the Eastern Caribbean. Once again until this system clears the Caribbean, it will be too early to speculate beyond that. Odds favor it just falling apart, with shear & the TUTT ahead.



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cieldumort
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Reged: Mon
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Loc: Austin, Tx 30.40N 97.80W
Re: Grace Forecast Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #95935 - Fri Sep 11 2015 07:19 PM

As of today, Sept. 11th, despite the ongoing abundance of shear in the region, Grace is still sort of holding its own as a tropical wave now centered very near Puerto Rico in the northeastern Caribbean, with most of its associated convection displaced well to the east of this apparent "center."

The Canadian Model (Global Environmental Multiscale Model, or GEM for short) is always a tool to use for a sort of "If there is any plausible chance something could develop, how could this happen, and how might this play out?" And so with the caveat that the GEM sometimes runs hot to extremely hot, the model does continue to regenerate what is left of Grace, now taking a then Hurricane Grace into the Carolinas next weekend. (Image courtesy Tropical Tidbits).



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