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Archives 2010s >> 2015 Forecast Lounge

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Reged: Mon
Posts: 1835
Loc: Austin, Tx
TD 9 Forecast Lounge
      #95944 - Tue Sep 15 2015 04:42 AM

A broad area of low pressure associated with an African easterly wave is being tracked as Invest 93L, now in the central Atlantic.

As of 4:30AM AST Sept. 15, 93L was centered near 11.75N 41W, with movement west-northwest. 93L has maximum sustained winds of about 25 MPH, and an estimated minimum central pressure of 1012mb.

This broad area of low pressure that rolled off Africa several days ago and has been maintained as having a "high" chance of development this week per NHC looks to finally be getting at least some sort of act together - which could be concerning - as it has traveled farther west than anticipated without yet developing, and thus not turning north early, as forecast.

Most of the recent model runs have all but dropped 93L as the primary player in the central to eastern Atlantic, in favor of the Invest behind it (95L), but this could be premature. Shear over the center of 93L has fallen to under 15 knots, while the atmosphere has moistened up somewhat since yesterday. In this environment, and given 93L's fairly large and oblong stature, a continued uneven, slow development and a track towards the west-northwest to northwest seems more likely than either imminent disintegration, or rapid intensification and an immediate fish spin. On such a trajectory, 93L could evade some of the strongest shear to its north, while also missing the exit out to sea.

This is where to post thoughts on 93L's potential for development, intensity, and forecast track. Longer range model output discussions are also appropriate here.

Title edited to reflect designation by NHC as a Tropical Depression

Edited by cieldumort (Wed Sep 16 2015 12:34 PM)

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Reged: Wed
Posts: 307
Loc: Palm City, Florida
Re: TD 9 Forecast Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #95950 - Wed Sep 16 2015 03:52 PM

Interesting last few model runs particularly the more reliable HWRF, GFDL and UKMET. Will have to watch the next few runs to see if this is a developing trend. Images below show 24 hr and 48 hr forecast image of weakness in the Ridge filling in somewhat.


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Edited by craigm (Wed Sep 16 2015 03:57 PM)

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