Current Radar or Satellite Image

Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane CenterHurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995


Nothing currently in the Atlantic Basin, for Late October the West Caribbean is usually where to monitor.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 11 (Nate) , Major: 29 (Maria) Florida - Any: 39 (Irma) Major: 39 (Irma)
None
COMMUNICATION
STORM DATA
CONTENT
FOLLOW US
ADS
Login to remove ads

 


Archives >> 2015 Forecast Lounge

Jump to first unread post. Pages: 1
cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1632
Loc: Austin, Tx 30.40N 97.80W
Gulf Invest 99L Lounge
      #95964 - Wed Sep 23 2015 04:05 PM



Two areas of lower pressure that are taking shape along the Monsoon Trof either side of Central America are now being watched for potential 5-day development. One of these is Invest tagged 92E (on the Pacific side), and the other as of this entry does not have its own tag (will update if and when it does).

One, both, or a conglomeration of these two features are forecast by a consensus of model runs to track northwesterly to northerly, and then possibly northerly to northeasterly, into extreme southwest Mexico and/or into the southern Gulf of Mexico, later in the 5-day period.

With regard to 92E, some runs strongly suggest that it could cross into the Gulf from the Pacific intact, or that its remnants may start to reform in the Bay of Campeche.

E. Pacific side: NHC 92E 5-Day Development Odds: 70%,
W. Atlantic side: NHC Untagged/Forecast Disturbance Development Odds: 20%

Title updated to reflect changes in development. (The SW Caribbean Trof is now Invest 99L. EPAC Invest 93E has become EPAC TS Marty, and EPAC 92E, or what is left of it, has mostly been absorbed by Marty and 99L).



Edited by cieldumort (Sun Sep 27 2015 03:59 AM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 941
Loc: parrish,fl 27.53N 82.44W
Re: SW Carib - Gulf Low [Re: cieldumort]
      #95965 - Thu Sep 24 2015 12:23 PM

All of the major models have something in the GOM by Wednesday. However, the dynamic being created by the EPac invest does not seem to play into the scenario, except the Euro which develops the EPac system into the stronger of the two and keeps it in the Pacific.
Only the CMC makes much of the GOM system but it does not do much with the EPac...
likely a weak low in the central GOM is my early guess.

--------------------
doug


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1632
Loc: Austin, Tx 30.40N 97.80W
Re: SW Carib - Gulf Low [Re: cieldumort]
      #95966 - Fri Sep 25 2015 09:44 AM

As of daylight Friday morning the disturbance in the far eastern Pacific has clearly become two. One, our original Invest 92E, continues tracking generally northerly, with the split-off to its west now tagged Invest 93E, and heading more northwesterly.

None of the high resolution hurricane models have yet been run on Invest 92E, however the BAM (Beta and Advection Model) suite continues to take the disturbance into the Gulf, with the Shallow BAM essentially a copy of the CLIPER (a purely statistical model), tossing it into the Bay of Campeche, and then back into Mexico. The Medium and Deep BAMs take a more stacked Low up and into the central to eastern Gulf of Mexico, coming inland over the western Florida panhandle.

The associated monsoon trof in the far western Caribbean is not yet Invest tagged, and remains loosely connected to Invest 92E - almost rotating around it. The Global models continue to hone in on this feature as the focus point for a quasi-tropical Low forming in the Gulf late this weekend or early next week, with or without energy from EPAC 92E. Of these Globals, recently the GFS seems to want to break off a part of 92E and run separate, weak lows into opposite sides of the GOM, with the 92E remnant heading towards Texas, and the Caribbean trof still heading for the panhandle. An interesting and plausible scenario.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 941
Loc: parrish,fl 27.53N 82.44W
Re: SW Carib - Gulf Low [Re: cieldumort]
      #95968 - Fri Sep 25 2015 11:52 AM

I do not see much model support for anything significant in the GOM in the next 96 hours...

--------------------
doug


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1632
Loc: Austin, Tx 30.40N 97.80W
Re: Invest 99L Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #95970 - Sun Sep 27 2015 03:19 AM

NHC DEVELOPMENT ODDS: 30%

99L 0300UTC SEPT 27


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1632
Loc: Austin, Tx 30.40N 97.80W
Re: Gulf Invest 99L Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #95977 - Mon Sep 28 2015 11:50 PM




Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1632
Loc: Austin, Tx 30.40N 97.80W
Re: Gulf Invest 99L Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #95989 - Tue Sep 29 2015 03:06 PM

The window for 99L to become a subtropical or tropical cyclone in the Gulf has closed with the system now over land, but several models suggest that its remnants will go on to enhance rainfall this week from the east coast of Florida up through all the way to New England.

The weak surface low in the northwestern Gulf is forecast to drift east then southeast, or even south, and along with its parent mid/upper trof, will help to draw up tropical moisture from Mexico and the ITCZ for a little while longer.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Pages: 1



Extra information
0 registered and 2 anonymous users are browsing this forum.

Moderator:  MikeC, Ed Dunham, danielw 

Print Topic

Forum Permissions
      You cannot start new topics
      You cannot reply to topics
      HTML is disabled
      UBBCode is enabled

Rating:
Topic views: 3309

Rate this topic

Jump to

Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources. 
CFHC's main servers are currently located at
Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well. Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center