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Azores #96L fails to complete transition into a Sub-Tropical Storm. Elsewhere, weak low pressure in Caribbean may linger into next week.
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Archives >> 2015 Forecast Lounge

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cieldumort
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Reged: Mon
Posts: 1635
Loc: Austin, Tx 30.40N 97.80W
Hawaii: Tropical Storm Niala Lounge
      #95967 - Fri Sep 25 2015 10:31 AM




The tropical cyclone in the central Pacific centered roughly 475 miles southeast of Hilo has undergone deep convective intensification overnight, and is now Tropical Storm Niala.

As of 2AM HST, Niala was centered near 15N 150W, with maximum sustained winds listed at 40 MPH and a central pressure estimated to be 1002mb. Niala has the appearance on IR satellite of a well-formed and deeply tropical, tropical cyclone, and it would not be surprising if these were conservative.

Global and high resolution models identify shear coming down hard on Niala within 48 to 72 hours, and as such, weaken the cyclone into a shallow system - and thus tracking west to southwest - by about the time it would be passing near (or as forecast, well south) of the islands. Given its present cohesive structure and deeply moist envelope, the models may be overdoing the impact of this shear a bit, and it is possible that the cyclone tracks along or even to the right of the Cone of Uncertainty, potentially placing the islands more at risk for direct impacts.

Edit: Noting its improved structure and expanded radius of tropical storm force winds, the CPHC in its 5AM Sept 25 Discussion has expressed the possibility of a Tropical Storm Watch being issued for the Big Island later today or tonight.

Edited by cieldumort (Fri Sep 25 2015 11:31 AM)


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