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Archives 2010s >> 2015 Storm Forum

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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)

Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Area of Interest - Invest 99L in Gulf of Mexico
      #95969 - Sat Sep 26 2015 01:57 PM

A low pressure system has formed over the central Yucatan peninsula with a good convective envelope. At 26/16Z, Invest 99L was located near 19.5N 88.5W with winds of 20 knots and a central pressure of 1009MB. Movement was to the north at 5 knots. The system should move slowly northward toward the north Gulf coast in the next few days. SSTs off the northern Yucatan coast are 29-30C but southwesterly windshear in the central Gulf is expected to increase. Although conditions are marginal for additional development, some further intensification is still possible. Even if the Invest area does not consolidate into a tropical cyclone it still brings the potential for heavy rain to the north Gulf coast and the Florida peninsula early next week. Under the influence of the southwesterly windshear the system should have most of its convection located to the east of the center.

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Weather Analyst

Reged: Mon
Posts: 959
Loc: parrish,fl
Re: Area of Interest - Invest 99L in Gulf of Mexico [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #95973 - Mon Sep 28 2015 11:05 AM

Looks like some convection bubbling in three areas near 25.5 N and 85.7 W with movement slightly east of north... this would appear to be the LLC...very dry conditions west of the system...very trough like in appearance...
Can't say this won't develop into a hybrid situation....I still have memories of Charley which had an infusion of dry air in the north and west portions of the circulation at and during land fall but still
reached high intensity ...almost tornado like as it moved NE'd....

Not saying this is a Charley situation, but only that this is certainly a hybrid like situation and that alone won't keep it from intensifying...


Edited by doug (Mon Sep 28 2015 11:11 AM)

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Storm Tracker

Reged: Wed
Posts: 307
Loc: Palm City, Florida
Re: Area of Interest - Invest 99L in Gulf of Mexico [Re: doug]
      #95974 - Mon Sep 28 2015 01:39 PM

It appears in the last few frames the LLC is moving back under the overcast more NE and on the right side of the forecast track or maybe I'm just seeing things.

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Edited by craigm (Mon Sep 28 2015 01:43 PM)

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