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Azores #96L fails to complete transition into a Sub-Tropical Storm. Elsewhere, weak low pressure in Caribbean may linger into next week.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 41 (Nate) , Major: 59 (Maria) Florida - Any: 69 (Irma) Major: 69 (Irma)
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Archives >> 2015 Storm Forum

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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Area of Concern - Hurricane Joaquin
      #96007 - Wed Sep 30 2015 02:51 PM

At 30/18Z, recently upgraded Hurricane Joaquin - the third hurricane of the season - was located about 200 miles northeast of the central Bahamas at 24.4N 72.9W with recent movement to the southwest at 7 knots. Sustained winds have increased to 75 knots with gusts to 90 knots and the central pressure has decreased to 968MB (28.58 inches). SST's are 30-31C and, although the hurricane is dealing with some north northeasterly windshear, that shear is on the decline so additional intensification is likely for the next day or two. Joaquin should continue on a west southwesterly course for another 24 hours and then take a more northwesterly to northerly course on Friday under a 300MB flow that is almost due north.

This stagnant upper air pattern will stall out the cold front along the east coast and in combination with Joaquin could produce a major rainfall/flooding event along the east coast from eastern North Carolina to New Jersey over the weekend - and possibly southern New England as well as eastern New York but that will depend on the eventual long range track of Joaquin. Heavy rainfall and hurricane force winds are likely in the central and Northern Bahamas on Thursday and Friday. Joaquin should pass at least 150 miles to the east of central Florida early Friday as a major hurricane. High surf and dangerous rip currents are likely along the Florida east coast through the weekend.

The NHC has the following warnings and watches in effect:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Central Bahamas including Cat Island, the Exumas, Long Island,
Rum Cay, and San Salvador.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Northwestern Bahamas including the Abacos, Berry Islands, Bimini,
Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and New Providence, but excluding
Andros Island

Weather Conditions at Nassau, The Bahamas

ED


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berrywr
Weather Analyst


Reged: Fri
Posts: 387
Loc: Opelika, AL 32.71N 85.23W
Re: Area of Concern - Hurricane Joaquin [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #96008 - Wed Sep 30 2015 03:10 PM

Let me also add that our most reliable models; the GFS and ECMWF are in two distinct and separate camps with the ECMWF turning Joaquin east out to sea in a few days and the GFS insisting on the cutoff upper low and Joaquin merging in due time suggesting Joaquin will undergo extra-tropical transition and before everybody says Super-Storm Sandy; yes & no. There will be no snow! The upper level pattern is a bit similar...one, we'll be dealing with a major cutoff upper low over the SE United States, two...a strong rex block north and east of Joaquin leaving two scenarios; a graceful exit east or a date with the east coast of the United States whether tropical, hybrid, post-tropical (Nor'Easter). To be honest with everybody; I've never seen an upper level pattern with a major cutoff upper low this strong and a possible Cat 3 Hurricane interacting with one another. Will they merge, too early too tell! Upper troughs and hurricanes don't get along with one another; the shear aloft will most certainly be felt by Joaquin if there is to be an east coast approach and Joaquin remains its tropical identification. The immediate concern is how long will Joaquin continue to move SW to W and the longer it does not move north, the more the ECMWF will likely to be the correct course; there's simply no way a major hurricane will steer west or north in such proximity to the upper low. As of this typing...there is a small shallow low swirl off the coast of NE FL; this is what remains of the system we were talking about last week in the Gulf of Mexico and Yucatan. For the moment, a major upper level trough is in place as seen on satellite; it is this feature that will close off further south over the SE United States. NOAA will be sampling the entire envelope this evening and hopefully the models will show some consensus.

--------------------
Sincerely,

Bill Berry

"Survived Trigonometry and Calculus I"

Edited by berrywr (Wed Sep 30 2015 03:11 PM)


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Psyber
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 156
Loc: Ontario, Canada
Re: Area of Concern - Hurricane Joaquin [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #96025 - Thu Oct 01 2015 12:50 AM

Curling into a 4, ED? Holy crap. This thing was subtropical and too weak to spin fish all the way up the eastern seaboard until maybe it clipped New Foundland. In a day it's done this.

I'm at a loss as to what happened and I can generally see...well not as well as you but at least something.


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: Area of Concern - Hurricane Joaquin [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #96055 - Fri Oct 02 2015 02:13 AM

The 02/00Z run of the GFS takes the system just about due north with a swipe at Cape Cod and Nova Scotia as it turns to the northeast, but the GFS has not performed all that well with Joaquin - and frankly, the GFS has had a rough time of it this season with a series of sheared systems. Joaquin started with the ECMWF viewed as an outlier - but it seems to be the model that had the best picture of the track trend. Currently Joaquin is still a powerful Cat IV hurricane that has become quasi-stationary just to the east of Long Island, in the Bahamas. The earlier long range track solutions leaned more toward ground-glass rather than crystal-clear but later Thursday afternoon/evening the expected pattern looks a little less fuzzy. With a good probability of yet another track shift to the right for days 3 through 5 from the NHC it looks like Bermuda will be the only land mass that Joaquin could directly influence once the system exits the Bahamas. The cloud patterns are beginning to hint that the ridge to the north is weakening and the door to a more northwest to northward movement is beginning to open. Until that movement starts, upwelling may cause a minor decrease in intensity, but only minor since the Bahamian shelf is rather shallow.

The following NHC Warnings / Watches are in effect as of 02/06Z:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Central Bahamas
* Northwestern Bahamas including the Abacos, Berry Islands, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and New Providence
* The Acklins, Crooked Island, and Mayaguana in the southeastern Bahamas

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Bimini
* Andros Island

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Remainder of the southeastern Bahamas including the Turks and Caicos Islands
* Andros Island
* Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Los Tunas, Holguin, and Guantanamo

ED


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: Area of Concern - Hurricane Joaquin [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #96068 - Sat Oct 03 2015 04:03 PM

After almost making it to a Cat V earlier Saturday morning, satellite images suggest that Joaquin has started to weaken again as the powerful hurricane heads off to the northeast. Although the eye has redeveloped a classic 'stadium' structure and is contracting, the hurricane shows signs of dry air entrainment from the northwest. Joaquin should pass by to the west (perhaps just to the west) of Bermuda later Sunday evening as a strong Cat II Huricane.

Weather Conditions on Bermuda

Bermuda Weather Radar

ED


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