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Azores #96L fails to complete transition into a Sub-Tropical Storm. Elsewhere, weak low pressure in Caribbean may linger into next week.
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Archives >> 2015 News Talkbacks

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Tazmanian93
Weather Master


Reged: Sun
Posts: 481
Loc: Tampa
Re: Hurricane Joaquin Battering the Central Bahamas [Re: cieldumort]
      #96052 - Thu Oct 01 2015 04:54 PM

I just saw that and was looking it up to verify

--------------------
Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.

Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!

****************

Ed


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DaViking
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Tue
Posts: 22
Loc: Crystal River, FL
Re: Hurricane Joaquin Battering the Central Bahamas [Re: MikeC]
      #96054 - Fri Oct 02 2015 01:33 AM

Can't really remember a time where a "major hurricane", never really managed to develop that "signature" defined eye on imagery, unless the eye is really small.

But even Hurricane Wilma in 05 had a distinct eye when it peaked.

I'm just making an observation. EL NINO RIGHT?!?


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cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1635
Loc: Austin, Tx 30.40N 97.80W
Re: Joaquin in the Central Bahamas Starting to Eject N-NNE [Re: MikeC]
      #96057 - Fri Oct 02 2015 01:41 PM



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cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1635
Loc: Austin, Tx 30.40N 97.80W
Re: Joaquin in the Central Bahamas Starting to Eject N-NNE [Re: MikeC]
      #96058 - Fri Oct 02 2015 09:56 PM

Virginia Beach [i](Image was deleted because of image display problems.)[/i]

Edited by Ed Dunham (Sat Oct 03 2015 01:03 AM)


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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1023
Loc: Maryland 38.98N 76.50W
Re: Joaquin in the Central Bahamas Starting to Eject N-NNE [Re: cieldumort]
      #96060 - Sat Oct 03 2015 12:54 AM

Quote:

Virginia Beach




That would be from the nor'easter we're getting in the mid-atlantic, not the hurricane. I find it interesting on the IR loop that it looks like the nor'easter is being fed from the hurricane, almost as if the nor'easter is cannibalizing the hurricane. Meanwhile the hurricane appears to be weakening while the nor'easter is getting stronger. Very odd:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/h5-loop-avn.html

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/h5-loop-wv.html


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JoshuaK
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 153
Loc: Central Florida 28.12N 81.99W
Re: Joaquin in the Central Bahamas Starting to Eject N-NNE [Re: Random Chaos]
      #96061 - Sat Oct 03 2015 08:47 AM

Joaquin looks to be much stronger this morning with a much more defined appearance on satellite. Recce found flight level winds of 129 knots as well, whether this is from the completion of a ERC or moving away from upwelled waters, Joaquin doesn't appear to be suffering much from the increasing wind shear.

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Hawkeyewx
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sun
Posts: 99
Re: Joaquin in the Central Bahamas Starting to Eject N-NNE [Re: JoshuaK]
      #96063 - Sat Oct 03 2015 11:04 AM

Latest recon pass measured 144 kts at flight level and 138 kts SFMR.

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cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1635
Loc: Austin, Tx 30.40N 97.80W
Re: Joaquin in the Central Bahamas Starting to Eject N-NNE [Re: Hawkeyewx]
      #96064 - Sat Oct 03 2015 11:48 AM

The last passes through is suggestive a possible upgrade to Cat 5. Min pressure could also be lower than listed here -

A. Time of Center Fix: 3rd day of the month at 14:51:00Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 25°51'N 71°48'W (25.85N 71.8W)

D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 138kts (~ 158.8mph)

F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 233° at 144kts (From the SW at ~ 165.7mph)

H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 934mb (27.58 inHg) - Extrapolated
L. Eye Character: Closed
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 20 nautical miles (23 statute miles)


Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 144kts (~ 165.7mph) which was observed 14 nautical miles (16 statute miles) to the SSE (148°) from the flight level center at 14:46:30Z
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: 700mb

Eye sonde failed. Moderate turbulence inbound. Clear above in Cente


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cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1635
Loc: Austin, Tx 30.40N 97.80W
Re: Joaquin Heading Northeast, Back to Cat 4 [Re: MikeC]
      #96066 - Sat Oct 03 2015 02:52 PM

The widespread coastal gale and flood threat continues, and will likely do so through the weekend, and even into Monday, only shifting in locations as Joaquin tracks further northeast.

This setup is somewhat similar to a nor'easter, in that there is strong High over Low pressure, but it is not one. In this situation there is very high pressure centered over northeastern Canda, with extremely low pressure centered way down south - just north of the Bahamas - and it is a hurricane, rather than an extra-tropical cyclone (Hurricane Joaquin).

As can be seen in the image below, as lines of equal pressure (isobars) get packed tighter and tighter, the greater the wind speed becomes. In the case of Joaquin to the south and the large and powerful High to his north-northwest, as well as another anticyclone to his northeast and a weaker low to his northwest, these winds cover thousands of miles, and the subsequent fetch of water being pushed into the eastern seaboard from the Atlantic goes on and on, coming all the way in from even the central Atlantic.


Image credit: TropicalTidbits.com


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