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Azores #96L fails to complete transition into a Sub-Tropical Storm. Elsewhere, weak low pressure in Caribbean may linger into next week.
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Archives >> 2015 News Talkbacks

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MikeCAdministrator
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Reged: Sun
Posts: 3888
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
TD 12 Upgraded to Tropical Storm Kate in Eastern Bahamas
      #96121 - Mon Nov 09 2015 07:04 AM

ADDED: At 09/0820AM EST, NHC upgraded TD 12 to Tropical Storm Kate based on AF Recon data.

Tropical Depression Twelve has formed from invest 94L in the eastern Bahamas. It is expected to intensify to Tropical Storm strength, and for this reason Tropical Storm Warnings are now up for the eastern and Central Bahamas.

Once through the Bahamas it is expected to recurve away from the US and miss Bermuda to the West. Based on the atmospheric setup in the area and model consensus, this seems very likely.

This system is very compact and could have rapid changes in intensification, but only over a very small area. It's also moving very quickly at 15 mph, so any affects from it over the Bahamas shouldn't last very long. Recon aircraft is going to be checking it out today.

The 2015 Hurricane Season ends on November 30th.

Tropical Storm Kate Event Related Links


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Kate


stormplotthumb_12.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Kate (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Kate (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of Kate

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Kate
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Kate -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)


> Bahamas Media

Television & Radio:

ZNS Bahamas, Radio & TV

More 94 FM Bahamas


Newspapers:

Bahamas Tribune

Nassau Guardian

Bahamas B2B

The Abaconian - Abaco Island News

Freeport News

StormCarib Reports from the Caribbean Islands

Caribbean Weather Observations

Barbados Brohav Weather Fax

Caribbean Broadcast Corporation (TV/Radio from Antilles)

San Juan, PR Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Various Caribbean Radio Stations

DR1 Dominican Republic Hurricanes

Edited by Ed Dunham (Mon Nov 09 2015 09:01 AM)


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
TS Kate Heading Out to Sea [Re: MikeC]
      #96122 - Tue Nov 10 2015 11:09 AM

Kate is well to the east of Jacksonville, Florida, this morning and the Tropical Storm is moving to the northeast at over 20mph. Note that the center is located under the southwest section of the CDO under the influence of increasing southwesterly windshear.

Quite an unusual disparity exists between the latest NHC advisory and the actual Recon Vortex messages. Either NHC is discarding some of the flight data for unknown reasons or they are Nowcasting the current storm conditions based on model output rather than the aircraft data. At 10/15Z NHC stated "Given the latest dropsonde data, the central pressure is estimated at 999 mb." However the data reported by Recon was 1002mb at 1256Z, 1007mb at 1430Z and 1006mb at 1515Z. The 58 knot wind speed reported by the latest aircraft penetration corresponds to the speeds indicated by MIMIC satellite data. Some of the models suggest that Kate will become a hurricane before extra-tropical transition takes place under 50 knots of windshear.
ED


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