vpbob21
Weather Guru
Reged: Fri
Posts: 108
Loc: Ohio
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10/5/3
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beachcrafts
Registered User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 7
Loc: in Boynton Beach, Fl 26.53N 80.10W
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8/3/2 no particular reason.
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cieldumort
Moderator
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1667
Loc: Austin, Tx 30.40N 97.80W
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10, 4, 1
Not finding any one analog year very compelling. See some reasons to give more consideration to both 1982 (6, 2, 1) & 1991 (8, 4, 2) than I had earlier.
10/4/1 final, but a potential total bust especially so if el nino becomes either strong, or trends to neutral.
From a western Gulf of Mexico perspective, despite all the "low" forecasts agencies are putting out there, the amount of moisture now in the southern plains concerns me. For one, it is now so saturated from earth to atmosphere - and expected to keep a wet bias for many months to come - that any landfalling tropical cyclones along the Gulf could maintain inland longer than usual. This ties in to a related concern - the propensity of the current and forecast pattern to draw up moisture, and so, potentially future disturbances, from the western Atlantic, and/or even the eastern Pacific.. maybe even crossovers.
Edited by cieldumort (Sun May 31 2015 09:30 PM)
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MichaelA
Weather Analyst
Reged: Thu
Posts: 856
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL 27.83N 82.69W
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8/5/2
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Michael
2018 Actual: 3/2/0
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dolfinatic
Weather Guru
Reged: Fri
Posts: 120
Loc: St. Petersburg, Fl
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8/2/1
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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Last season the actual numbers were 8/6/2 and the best analog year was 1976 (9/6/2). This year 1977 is a strong candidate for the likely analog year - the 1977 totals were 6/5/1. I'm making a minor adjustment of my numbers to 8/3/1.
Still time to add your numbers until the thread closes tomorrow (5/31) at midnight.
ED
Edited by Ed Dunham (Sat May 30 2015 09:09 PM)
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GlenJohnson
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Sat
Posts: 58
Loc: Waldo Florida 29.79N 82.17W
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Still going with 11/6/3, even more so now that I see the news story that the hurricane insurance rate for Florida is going down. Means we're in for trouble for sure. Been lucky to long.
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Be civil to all; sociable to many; familiar with few; friend to one; enemy to none.
Benjamin Franklin
Card carrying Storm Spotter
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gsand
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 22
Loc: Palm Bay, FL 28.00N 80.38W
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9/4/2. I like what Ed said about the analog but bumping a bit for no particular reason.
Stay safe everyone!
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Hazel 1954 Camille 1969 Agnes 1972 Bob 1991
Charley 2004 Frances 2004 Jeanne 2004 Matthew 2016 Irma 2017
2018 Forecast- 16/7/3
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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This year we had 17 participants which is normal for a season that is expected to be quiet. The range was from 6/2/1 to 19/11/5 and the rounded average was 9/4/2.
CSU forecast: 7/3/1
TSR forecast: 11/4/1
NOAA forecast: 9/5/1 (rounded)
Sometimes even your local weather can give you a hint as to what the upcoming season could be like, because your local weather is usually typical of a particular weather pattern that may influence some other meteorological attribute such as a higher or lower season of tropical activity. This year in east central Florida we have had a wet and uncommonly warm Spring. In April I had a new monthly rainfall record of 5.46". My previous April record of 4.41" was in 1997 (6/3/1). In April I also had 6 days with thunder which tied the record high for the month with 1994 (7/3/0), 2013 (13/2/0) and 2014 (8/6/2). Not exactly a scientific method, but the correlation is interesting.
Thanks to all who participated - at the end of the season we'll revisit the forecasts and see how well we did.
Cheers,
ED
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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The 2015 season has ended and most of the site users did an outstanding job this year with their forecasts for the season. The final numbers for 2015 were 11/4/2 - a normal season of named storms although slightly low on the number of hurricanes in the Atlantic basin. The average forecast by all of the site users that participated was 9/4/2 for a skill score of -2 and an 'outstanding' rating - which ties 2015 with 2014 for the highest rating ever achieved in our annual exercise. Doombot! and stormtiger had it very close - both with a score of -1, while M.A., doug, cieldumort and gsand all had a score of -2. The range in scores was from -1 to -18. Lamar-Plant City, GlenJohnson and vpbob21 all had scores of -3 while beachcrafts and MichaelA had scores of -4 - all of these for an 'excellent' rating. I was in the 'good' category with a score of -5 along with JoshuaK, craigm and dolphinatic with scores of -6. On the professional side, CSU had a score of -6, NOAA came in at -4 and TSR did a great job at -1. Note that there really wasn't a good analog year that matched this season.
Right now 2016 looks like it will be a little more active, however, probably not as much of an uptick in activity as you might be thinking. I'll post some thoughts on that in a Met Blog and in a new Storm Forum Outlook thread for 2016 in early January. But for now, congratulations on a forecasting job well done for 2015 - its going to be tough to beat these results in 2016 but we'll give it a try.
Cheers,
ED
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