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Archives 2010s >> 2016 Forecast Lounge

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cieldumort
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HERMINE FORECAST LOUNGE
      #96502 - Thu Aug 18 2016 01:39 PM



The advance African Easterly Wave pouch we have been following and that has already entered the far eastern Atlantic, P21L, has been displaying considerable convection and low to mid-level rotation today. Additionally, the primary tropical cyclone specific models HWRF and GFDL have strongly been advertising further development.

The surface center of the developing circulation looks to be near 11.5N 28W, with movement is to the west-northwest at around 15+/- knots, with maximum sustained winds as suggested by a blend of ASCAT and Dvorak of about 25 knots.

This wave is not yet Invest tagged. We will update the Lounge if and when it has been so.

Title edited to reflect Invest tag. Recon confirms, INVEST 99L is now TD NINE. Title has been updated.
TD NINE is now Hermine, and the title has been updatd.

Title has been updated for Hurricane Hermine.

Edited by cieldumort (Thu Sep 01 2016 08:06 PM)


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cieldumort
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Re: Wave Pouch 21L [Re: cieldumort]
      #96503 - Thu Aug 18 2016 02:48 PM

This feature has been set as an INVEST, 99L. Model runs will begin later today.

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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Wave Pouch 21L [Re: cieldumort]
      #96504 - Thu Aug 18 2016 05:04 PM

99L requires attention, at least for the east Caribbean,

GFS model has it over Barbados Wednesday morning, then near Puerto Rico Saturday the 27th, over far eastern Bahamas on the 28th, then recurving between the US and Bermuda the next several days. (Out this far is not reliable, so it's more for watching where it trends).

The euro, which was showing S. Florida Monday the 29th at the 0z, is now showing it in the Western Caribbean at the same time, weak.

Therefore, the East Caribbean needs to watch it closely, and monitor trends elsewhere.


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Invest 99L [Re: cieldumort]
      #96507 - Fri Aug 19 2016 07:32 AM

Model runs: GFS (6z): Over Northeastern Caribbean Islands Wed-Thur, hurricane. Just north of Puerto Rico on Friday. Hurricane. Scooting north of the Eastern Bahamas on Sunday (Aug 28th) major Hurricane. Wed August 31st, closest approach to the Outer Banks (no landfall, but strong). Past 5 days out very unreliable, so just monitor it. Eastern Caribbean should be watching this system closely, however.


0Z Euro: Much weaker than the GFS, moves the system (not really developed) through the Leewards Wed into Thursday. Moves into Hispaniola Friday and falls apart.

CMC: moves into northeastern Caribbean (Wed-Thursday) as a hurricane then pulls out to sea.

the HWRF develops it into a hurricane this Sunday, timing for E. Carib Wed - Thursday.



Much will depend on how strong the system gets before the eastern Caribbean, a stronger system would imply more northerly, weaker, more westerly. (This is a general rule of thumb, and not always the case, currents and conditions around it can change this)


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Invest 99L [Re: MikeC]
      #96508 - Fri Aug 19 2016 04:07 PM

12Z Model Runs

GFS shifted west, into the Gulf (long range will probably change again and again)

Timing:

Leewards Wednesday.
(likely to change again after this point:)
Puerto Rico Thursday night-Friday
Dominican Republic: saturday (Aug 27)
East Cuba Mon (Aug 29)
Over Key West (Aug 30 AM)
Penscaola ovenight Aug 31 - Sep 1st.

Euro 12Z:
Weak Wave, never really develops:
OVer leewards wed
Rides islands, Yucatan on Aug 29th


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Invest 99L [Re: MikeC]
      #96511 - Sat Aug 20 2016 09:53 AM

Euro has shifted quite a bit in the 0z run and out to sea after caribbean, GFS now shows gulf.

Timing: Euro scraping along the edge of the northeast Caribbean, possible strong TS or hurricane, Wednesday-Thursday. Turns north and out to sea by the time it approaches the eastern Bahamas.

GFS: Over leewards as a TS on Wednesday, weakens it over Puerto Rico Thursday. Slowly restrengthens as it moves west along the southernmost Bahamas. Cross middle keys on Sunday ngiht/Monday morning (28-29th). Develops into a major hurricane, landfall west of New Orleans (Area that was hard hit by flooding recently) the morning of September 1st.

Still a lot of uncertainty here, but the interesting trend to note is that the Euro is still weak, but moves it north of the Caribbean and out to sea vs crossing through it to the west. The leeward islands int he Caribbean need to continue to watch, the rest is just watching for trends. The GFS did back off some of the stronger storm ideas (at least in the short term) at least.



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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Invest 99L [Re: MikeC]
      #96512 - Sat Aug 20 2016 12:27 PM

12z GFS run is going on now:

Wednesday morning tropical storm over leewards, weakens after that.
Moves over Puerto Rico Thursday (weak)
Skims along offshore of Hispaniola late Thursday starts to regain strength Friday near the Turks and Caicos.
Saturday north of 6z position. (Southern Bahamas)
Sunday (Aug 28th) just south of Andros island in the Bahamas, tropical storm.
Monday (Aug 29h) weak tropical storm landfall in the Keys. The system behind 99l is a huge major hurricane at this point much further northeast (change from earlier runs) If that trend continues the Carolinas may want to watch that.
Beyond tht it develops a hurricane in the gulf and curves in back in between Panama City and Pensacola.

12Z Canadian makes 99L a major hurricane several hundred miles off Jacksonville on a Carolinas trajectory at the end.

Note: Until a system develops, treat all these as not going to happen, and watch to see how things trend. Basically all I use these for is to determine if something is worth spending time looking at or not. Not that any one of these models actually is useful for track/intensity before a storm is well established. Right now the Eastern Caribbean islands should watch the system closely, anywhere else is more just be aware of it.



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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Invest 99L [Re: MikeC]
      #96514 - Sun Aug 21 2016 07:23 AM

Morning model summary:

The 6Z GFS now keeps 99L weak as it passes through the Leeward islands Wed-Thursday.
It then gets very close to the Turks and Caicos on Friday, but then begins to slow down and as it approaches the lower fidelity time of the GFS.
Develops into a Hurricane on Aug 31st near the northeastern Bahamas and then kicks out to sea. The 0z run kept it weak and wandered into central Florida.

The Euro keeps it a wave or weaker the entire time and also kicks it out to sea near the Bahamas, seemly pulled east by 90L to the east of it, which is a strong hurricane at the time (and that one goes out to sea way before any land area)

So trend is slightly better for both the Leewards and the US as it shows a very weak system over the Leewards and then eventually pushes it out to sea. Enough uncertainty in the ultra long range not to stop monitoring it though considering the ensemble runs. Another trend appears to be the idea of it stalling out near or just east of the Bahamas.


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Hawkeyewx
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Re: Invest 99L [Re: MikeC]
      #96517 - Sun Aug 21 2016 03:06 PM

Interestingly, the 12Z Euro is holding onto 99L a little better, drifting it into the Bahamas where it then develops and could possibly get caught south of a building east coast ridge.

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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Invest 99L [Re: MikeC]
      #96518 - Sun Aug 21 2016 03:07 PM

Another interesting shift with the 12Z operationals:

GFS:
Weak wave into E. Carib on Wed/Thursday
Wave getting itself back together over the Turks/Caicos on Saturday
Fast developing storm between Florida and the Bahamas on Aug 31st (never quite makes landfall in Florida, but close enough to feel it in S. Florida)
Backs over the Bahamas / Nassau Hurricane on Sept. 1st
Races out to sea after that

Euro, showing double US landfall:
Wave strengthens slightly as it enters the Leewards on Wednesday.
Moves into the Bahamas Fri-Sat, starts to strengthen over the Bahamas
Strong TS/Hurricane just north of the Bahamas on Sunday
Landfall Monday (Aug 29) morning Daytona Beach, as a hurricane
Passes into the Gulf, just south of Panama City Beach, strong hurricane on Aug 30th
S. of Mobile Alabama, strong, smallish hurricane on Aug 31th... Run ends here, extrapolating it takes it into New Orleans from the East on Sep. 1st.
If the Euro run holds, Florida could be in the "cone" starting Wednesday with the landfall happening a week from Monday.
The Navgem and UKMET also shows the bend back to the west in the Bahamas this coming weekend.


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Invest 99L [Re: MikeC]
      #96519 - Sun Aug 21 2016 06:53 PM

18Z GFS is weak, with similar timing to the last run, it moves slowly and goes out to sea (away from the US) after nearing the Bahamas. The difference between the GFS and Euro here is mostly timing, they are several days apart as to when the storm is in the Bahamas, GFS gets there Sunday holds it there much longer, whereas the Euro has it in the Bahamas this coming weekend and into Florida Monday..

In short from this, still not enough information, those in the Bahamas, Florida, and Southeast need to keep watching this one. In the short term, the good news is it appears the east Caribbean will just get a relatively weak wave with some rain.



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LoisCane
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Re: Invest 99L [Re: MikeC]
      #96520 - Sun Aug 21 2016 08:45 PM

Next model run will be interesting. Interesting to see if it correlates or goes off on another tangent.

We are getting close to "coming week" vs long term.

A system just appearing there... someone mentioned to be Katrina did that and that is true... rare.

If a ridge does build in it's logical to think it will keep going into GOM.

Some runs that make no sense .. something off. Again it's all about timing and we are getting closer to that point where it should begin to come together both in reality and on the models.

Finding the hit some models are showing for Daytona area (changes often) hard.. then again depends on where ridge sets up.

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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Invest 99L [Re: LoisCane]
      #96521 - Mon Aug 22 2016 06:21 AM

The 0Z Euro is back to keeping 99L: East of the US, and weak until it is north of the Bahamas, this run has no landfall on the US.

The 6Z GFS run nearly loses 99L entirely, but possibly takes it over S. Florida/Keys as a depression a week from today, then it starts to get stronger in the Gulf before landfalling near the Alabama/Florida border on approx Sept 2nd.

A pretty big difference from yesterday, in short, still too soon to tell, but the latest eruo run is more positive for no US impacts than the last. With no development early on, there won't be a solid idea until pretty late this week. The GFS switched back to the west with it entering the gulf, so both models effectively flip flopped from their !2Z runs.

Until something develops or Recon gets involved models likely will be mostly flip flopping. In short, continue to watch closely. Right now I'd slightly favor the out to sea scenario.





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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Invest 99L [Re: cieldumort]
      #96523 - Mon Aug 22 2016 12:51 PM

The 12Z GFS has a new idea, no (or very little) development brought on by an upper level low to the northeast (along with mid level dry air) that shears the system apart, bringing only enhanced rainfall to Florida.

Euro comes out a bit later, but currently the trends are still heading positive for low to no impact.


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Invest 99L [Re: MikeC]
      #96525 - Mon Aug 22 2016 02:27 PM

The 12Z Euro:

at 120 hours, 99L is over the Central Bahamas and starting to strengthen.

144 Hours out (Sunday) it is gaining strength just north of Andros island in the Bahamas.

168 Hours, Monday, landfall near Fort Lauderdale at hurricane or strong TS strength 995mb, strengthening as it approaches.

Continues around this strength to Northwest of the Ft. Myers area (Exits near Venice Beach) strengthening back in the Gulf. (Tues, Aug 30th)

Wed, Aug 31st, 960mb (close to major or at major) hurricane in the Gulf west of Tampa and south of Panama City Beach.

Final frame Sep. 1st, in the Gulf (950mb) south of Tallahassee moving back toward Florida.

Second landfall @ 942 mb (typical of a cat 4) in the big bend.

Recon will be out there tomorrow to sample the system.



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Genesis
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Re: Invest 99L [Re: MikeC]
      #96526 - Mon Aug 22 2016 03:48 PM

That's ugly all the way around. Let's hope not.

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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Invest 99L [Re: Genesis]
      #96531 - Mon Aug 22 2016 06:30 PM

18Z GFS again shows a strong ULL shearing apart 99L and not really developing it, what is there does move to the west though.

Recon tomorrow hopefully will help the subsequent runs. Having "no system" to speak of in the GFS to a cat 4 in the Gulf in the Euro is a pretty big spread. The National Hurricane Center's current 5 day chances is 50% and that coin flip chance is a good indicator. Dry air and possible shear are the negative factors for development.

Interestingly it also moves the remnants of Fiona over Florida on Sunday.



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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Invest 99L [Re: MikeC]
      #96532 - Mon Aug 22 2016 08:06 PM

Most of the models other than the GFS do develop 99L in or near the Bahamas, most recently the HWRF shows a Category 2 or 3 hurricane just east of Nassau in the Bahamas heading generally westward on Sunday. CMC shows a tropical storm in near Palm Bay, FL Monday morning.

Euro shows the Ft Lauderdale landfall and big bend hit, and GFS shows no organization. None of the global models show out to sea at this point.


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cieldumort
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Re: Invest 99L [Re: cieldumort]
      #96536 - Tue Aug 23 2016 04:57 AM


Above: 99L approaching the Lesser Antilles & barely Fiona to its NW

Most striking about the 8/23 0z runs, is that there is quite a lot of convergence... However, the GFS and GFDL in particular may have initialized 99L too weakly, for as of 0700z, the system is coming together better than they seem to have advertised.

The trend of overnight improvement has actually been going on for several moons now, but tonight it finally looks to be "catching" enough that it just might stick. Another 6-18 hours should tell, and also, Recon is set to fly in today.

In the very near term, it looks as if shear over 99L is and will possibly continue to be relaxing, as troughiness and associated 20+ knots of westerly shear brushes by to its north and east. Afterwards, as the Low appears to be pulling just north of due west at a good clip, it could easily run into a pocket of high net-effective westerly shear by mid-week, which would argue for some impairment if it lasts too long. However, as by this time 99L may already be a tropical cyclone, the damage may be insufficient to prevent it continuing westward to northwestward (depending) as a named storm, or stronger (Lounge material at this point, but entirely plausible).

It is late in the week that the models are joining up together in remarkable fashion, for what is a somewhat convoluted pattern. That there is such unanimity given the relative complexity is reason to take note. Here is the 00Z breakdown:

GFS: High pressure builds in behind weak troffiness off east coast sending the remnant circulation of Fiona across central Florida, and pulling up a weak intensity open wave 99L by the hand into the Bahamas, and imparting extra vorticity in the process. There 99L becomes a TD... by next Thursday.
Odds: Seems unlikely owing to the recent and current organizational trends with 99L, and the forward speed of both systems.

ECMWF: Like the GFS, the Euro sends the remnant Fiona across Florida (more north), and grabs 99L. However, this happens both sooner, and with an initially stronger 99L wave. In this scenario, 99L becomes a TD this coming Saturday night, crossing south Florida Sunday night into Monday as a strong TS, runs up the west coast as a strong hurricane, is then picked up by a passing trof and now crosses north Florida from the west as a modest hurricane next Wednesday the 31st, running up the coasts of Georgia and South Carolina, before being ejected northeast back out to sea as an intensifying Cat 2+ over the Gulf Stream east of the Carolinas on Thursday Sept 1st.
Odds:This looks more reliable than the GFS run above it. Plus, this is the ECMWF. However, all the usual disclaimers apply. Especially that far out!

CMC: Like the ECMWF, the Canadian starts out with a somewhat healthier 99L, and also retains a somewhat more coherent Fiona (or remnant Fiona). The two meet up well north of the Bahamas this coming Friday night, with x-Fiona imparting substantial additional vorticity into 99L, with 99L becoming a solid TS that is driven into Georgia, and then running rapidly inland up the east coast until merging with a passing trof on the 31st while over Virginia.
Odds: This also looks more reliable than the GFS, and perhaps as plausible as the ECMWF run - the main caveat being that this is the CMC, and also all the usual disclaimers apply this far out!

HWRF: Starting with a somewhat stronger 99L than the GFS, but not as much as either the ECMWF or CMC, but with a far more resilient TD Fiona, the 0z HWRF develops 99L into a TD just north of Puerto Rico this Wednesday afternoon, intensifying into a strong TS and then minimal hurricane just north of the easternmost Bahamas this Friday night, and then rapidly intensifying into a Major Hurricane while turning left (west) into the westernmost Bahamas this Saturday night.
Odds: This also looks more reliable than the GFS, and unfortunately, only slightly less possible than either the ECMWF or CMC's less bullish alternatives; definitely within the realm, so keep alert. Usual disclaimers apply!!

GFDL: The GFDL seems to have had difficulty resolving nuances with 99L all along, and unsurprisingly looks to be initializing this run with an amorphous and very broad low, which is arguably too weak for consideration, at all. In the interest of sharing it however, this model's run tries to develop 99L into a TD in the north-easternmost Caribbean this Wednesday, opens back up into a wave as it passes over the DR (likely due to a weak system traversing brutal terrain), and then by this Sunday the open wave of the former TD teams up with remnants of former Fiona to create a large, amorphous blob of wet and bluster weather off the southeast coast.
Odds: Looks even less likely than the GFS, but should 99L not "stick" and pull it off within the next 36 hours, I would start to give both the GFDL and GFS some credence, despite their overly weak initializations.


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Invest 99L [Re: Genesis]
      #96537 - Tue Aug 23 2016 07:22 AM

Morning Model runs (6z):

The GFS still shows nothing really developing with 99L, actually takes the remnants of Fiona west toward Florida and merges that and 99L together while moving over Florida as a rainmaker (no real development). And doesn't organize it in the Gulf. This scenario seems unlikely since it possibly is overdoing Fiona. The ridge is strong in this run though, pushing anything to the west.

The HWRF is only out to 72 hours at the time I wrote this, and it's showing it starting to organize, only noticible different so far from the last run is that it's slightly faster than before.
Saturday (108 hours out) it is approaching/at major hurricane status just east of the Central Bahamas.


The final frame of the HRWF (Sunday morning) has it moving generally WNW (turning more toward due west) just along the northern edge of Abaco island in the Bahamas winds are around 135MPH. It's a bit more northwest than the prior run, but similar strength.

The atmosphere around it in this forecast is very favorable for development, ridging is strong too, likely will get a bit more north then hard west looking at it. The ridge setup in this forecast is one we haven't seen with a hurricane/storm in a long while last one similar is the setup from 2004 that drove Frances/Jeanne westward. (not implying it will do this, since this is just a model forecast.) At this point i'm hoping Fiona interferes more like the GFS implied and keeps this system weak. Also until we actually have a formed system, keep in mind we are just looking for trends. Right now there are good trends (GFS) and bad trends (Euro and especially HWRF)

Bottom line Florida to North Carolina will likely need to watch 99L closely.


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