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Archives 2010s >> 2016 Forecast Lounge

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doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 984
Loc: parrish,fl
Re: Invest 99L [Re: MikeC]
      #96539 - Tue Aug 23 2016 09:21 AM

I do not see the GFS' model reliance on an upper low developing actually coming into fruition. The pattern would seem to allow an assumption of an upper high developing in the southeast in the wake of the big low now existing over southern Canada and exiting to the east during this period. This would, obviously, be more favorable for tropical development...other than drier air ahead of the system I do not see any impediment to development, and WV is hinting at the drier air being mixed out and a source of moisture developing to the system's north and west... as stated by the earlier post I hope the European solution does not occur, but it may be reading the signs more accurately. We must be alert.

--------------------
doug


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: Invest 99L [Re: MikeC]
      #96544 - Tue Aug 23 2016 01:08 PM

At 23/16Z there is a hint of a circulation center trying to form near 15.5N 57W with movement to the west to west northwest. That location is about a full degree south of the NHC estimated center of 99L at 12Z. That one degree of southern deviation will have a significant impact on the development of 99L and its eventual track, i.e., further south with potential impact from the higher terrain of the Greater Antilles. The differences between the future of this system as depicted by the GFS/GFDL and most of the other models is significant with a range from a few showers to a major hurricane in Central Florida on Monday. One model suite is out to lunch and one is very good - but we just don't yet know which is which! It may take a day or two before clarification takes place - but until then stay alert and, if you are likely to be in the danger zone, dust off your emergency action plans..
ED


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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 4336
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Invest 99L [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #96545 - Tue Aug 23 2016 01:51 PM

Model roundup for 12Z:

GFS loses the system again, mixes with Fiona's remnants and just brings a few showers to Florida.

HWRF: Clips Puerto Rico Tomorrow afternoon, the does not develop it over the Bahamas, a pretty drastic change from earlier runs, lines up more with the GFS.

CMC: does not develop 99L, but redevelops Fiona and slams it into Coastal Georgia as a Tropical Storm on Monday. (Very odd run)

NAVGEM: Over the Keys Monday night, as a tropical storm/low end hurricane.

12Z Euro: Just starting.... Seems faster
24 hours in it is already developed depression or storm.
Thursday: Just east of Turks/Caicos in the Bahamas, slightly stronger
Friday: Northwest of Turks/Caicos
Saturday: Over Nassau
Sunday Landfall South Florida (Between Miami/Ft. Lauderdale) strengthening cat 1. Hurricane. (984mb)
Monday: Southeast Gulf Cat 2/3 storm. (971mb)
Tuesday: Major Hurricane, NE Gulf (W of Tampa, S. of Pensacola) (962mb)
Wednesday: Right up Mobile Bay as a Cat 4. (932mb)
Thursday: Over the Tenn/NC border, passes to the west of Atlanta, moving quick enough to still do wind damage even that far out.
Friday: Shoots offshore through the DelMarVa area.

Bottom line, GFS/HWRF a shift toward little/no development, but with a lot of uncertainty in dealing with the remnants of Fiona. Euro Sunday (moved up from Monday) hit on South Florida as a hurricane then entering into the Gulf for a potentially bad setup later.




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MikeCAdministrator
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Reged: Sun
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Re: Invest 99L [Re: MikeC]
      #96546 - Tue Aug 23 2016 04:30 PM

EPS (Euro Ensembles) nearly all show a threat to the Florida coastline at this point on Sunday, varations a bit south to the Keys up to past St. Augustine on the east coast. Odds favor a Florida impact of some sort, but not sure how strong or exactly where yet.

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MichaelA
Weather Analyst


Reged: Thu
Posts: 887
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
Re: Invest 99L [Re: MikeC]
      #96547 - Tue Aug 23 2016 04:54 PM

Agreed. Now is the time to start watching how this develops, review your preparedness plans, and be ready to act if needed. Things can change drastically in the next several days. Let's see what the models begin to look like when they have a definite point of reference to run on.

--------------------
Michael

WU PWS

2020 “guess:” 15/8/3
2020 Actual 23/8/2


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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
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Re: Invest 99L [Re: Genesis]
      #96548 - Tue Aug 23 2016 05:53 PM

18Z GFS rolling in: (Had to run off after the first two days)

Wednesday (Tomorrow): N of Puerto Rico by the Afternoon
Thursday: Over the Turks and Caicos, doesn't lose it this run. (Thursday afternoon into evening) But still struggling with Fiona's remnants.
Friday: Moving Nw in the Bahamas still relatively weak
Saturday: Over central Bahamas, starting to develop more
Sunday: Florida Straights (East side)
Monday Morning: Over Key West (slightly stronger, but TS at best)
Tue-Wed: Strengthening in the Gulf
Thursday: Landfall just north of Galveston, TX
Remnants then move into Arkansas

18Z HWRF:
No real development, eventually loses it around Central Bahamas


Based on the current position of 99L, the short term may move it more south/west possibly closer to Hispaniola (but not necessarily over), and the possibly shifting south of Florida. But may trend later back a bit north to where the Euro is. In short still a wait and see game, if it gets stronger earlier there's a better chance it heads more northerly toward S. to Central Florida. Weaker, more chance it stays south of Florida or in S. Florida.


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: Invest 99L [Re: MikeC]
      #96550 - Tue Aug 23 2016 06:12 PM

The southern section is starting to look like a consolidation area. It will be interesting to see what the NHC assigned coordinates are at 00Z and if they use those coordinates in the 00Z model runs.
ED


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craigm
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 326
Loc: Palm City, Florida
Re: Invest 99L [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #96551 - Tue Aug 23 2016 06:31 PM

Agreed on the more southerly initialization. A track across Hispaniola could change everything downstream. Thought I would post the 12Z euro just for conversation remembering that we don't even have a tropical cyclone yet which the models never do well with. I fixed the link- Hit FWD on the right
Experimental Tropical Cyclogenisis Potential

--------------------
Why I'm here:
Weather Junkie

Edited by craigm (Tue Aug 23 2016 06:40 PM)


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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 4336
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Re: Invest 99L [Re: craigm]
      #96552 - Tue Aug 23 2016 07:53 PM

Calling out the tail end of the HWRF run does start to strengthen the storm just offshore of West Palm Beach on Monday. Strangely enough the 12Z HWRF developed the remnants of Fiona back into a hurricane while the 18Z dropped that idea.

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craigm
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 326
Loc: Palm City, Florida
Re: Invest 99L [Re: MikeC]
      #96553 - Tue Aug 23 2016 08:53 PM

Navy issuing tropical cyclone formation alert for 99L- think they issue those when development is expected within 24 hours. Maybe will see NHC up the percentage again at 11

--------------------
Why I'm here:
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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


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Re: Invest 99L [Re: craigm]
      #96557 - Tue Aug 23 2016 11:31 PM

0Z GFS Running:
12 hours: Over the Virgin Islands still a wave
24 hours: Wave N. Of Puerto Rico (weak, probably too weak)
Thursday: Over the Turks/Caicos int he Bahamas, getting organized, but not much.
Friday: Starts to fall apart over the Central Bahamas (appears to have difficulty with Ex-Fiona)
Saturday: Over the Central Bahamas, still weak
Sunday: Hanging out over Andros island in the Bahamas, not really moving, but beginning to get more organized.
Monday: Offshore Se. Fla (Halfway between Florida and the Bahamas), strengthening.
Tuesday: Landfall near West Palm Beach, then moves it northwar riding up just inside the east coast of Florida, over Orlando late Tuesday night weak TD/TS. This seems very implausible since it's heading straight into a ridge in this scenario.
Wednesday: Just west of St. Augustine
Thursday: Exiting into the Atlantic just north of Jacksonville

CMC: Weak TS into Vero on Sunday morning, Out West coast near Tampa Sunday night
Hurricane Landfall from the east in New Orleans Tuesday morning.

Until the system develops and clears the Caribbean things are going to be very difficult to pin down, after it clears the Caribbean, it'll still be difficult, but a lot less to choose from.






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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
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Re: Invest 99L [Re: MikeC]
      #96560 - Wed Aug 24 2016 07:26 AM

Overnight Euro Run (0z):

Late tonight: N. Of Puerto Rico, organizing
Late tomorrow Night: Over Turks/Caicos, slowly organizing more.
Late Friday Night: Over Central Bahamas, slowly organizing more.
Late Saturday Night: Just north of Andros Island Bahamas, slowly organizing more. Landfall sunday morning near Miami, stronger (Gap in frames, possibly hurricane)
Late Monday Night: In Gulf strengthening more...
Late Thursday Night: Major Hurricane Landfall W. Louisiana (937mb( Cat 3/4)

HWRF ended with a Major hurricane striking extreme S. Florida

The Euro moves it extremely fast and the HWRF ends with the storm rapidly intensifying right before landfall in Extreme S. Florida.


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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 4336
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Re: Invest 99L [Re: MikeC]
      #96561 - Wed Aug 24 2016 07:35 AM

6Z GFS Run Summary:
Generally still weak and much slower than the Euro
Over Turks/Caicos on Friday
Over Andros island on Sunday
Landfall Extreme S. Florida on Monday (Weak depression/storm)
Riding up the west coast of Florida, over Tampa on Tuesday
Slowly moving up the coast, eventually makes it to Jacksonville Friday

6Z HWRF starts the system off north of Guadeloupe, misses Puerto Rico to the north (so this may be a bit off to start with, but seems to align with where it is this morning)
Weak into the Central Bahamas on Friday
Kicks of development on Sunday in the Central Bahamas
975mb Hurricane just east of miami on Monday (Last Frame)

The HWRF seems a bit wonky in this run, however, especially in re-positioning over the Central Bahamas..



The story continues today, without a developed system and a disagreement between models, the state of this system still is from weak rainmaker to strong hurricane, and the path is not 100% clear (other than generally west and west northwest) still this morning.



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doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 984
Loc: parrish,fl
Re: Invest 99L [Re: MikeC]
      #96562 - Wed Aug 24 2016 09:25 AM

got to chuckle at the NHC desription of the system as not having a well defined circulation...If I am reading the visible loop correctly there is ample evidence of low level circulation centered around 17N and 62.5 W. and it looks like a cyclone....we should have a pretty good idea about this system this afternoon, assuming that is the locus of the circulation.

--------------------
doug


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Colleen A.
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
Re: Invest 99L [Re: doug]
      #96565 - Wed Aug 24 2016 10:07 AM

Are they doing recon today?

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 4336
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Invest 99L [Re: Colleen A.]
      #96566 - Wed Aug 24 2016 10:08 AM

Recon is sitting on the field at St. Croix right now getting prepared to take off.

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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 4336
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Invest 99L [Re: MikeC]
      #96567 - Wed Aug 24 2016 10:38 AM

Recon's taken off, it appears the Euro is verifying so far, position/intensity is dead on from yesterday and the prior day runs.

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dolfinatic
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 126
Loc: St. Petersburg, Fl
Re: Invest 99L [Re: MikeC]
      #96572 - Wed Aug 24 2016 12:35 PM

looks like they found TS winds now its a matter of closing it off which they cant find a west wind yet. Product: Air Force Tropical RECCO Message (URNT11 KNHC)
Transmitted: 24th day of the month at 15:42Z
Agency: United States Air Force
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF98-5308
Mission Purpose: Investigate fourth suspect area (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 2
Observation Number: 06

Mandatory Data...


Observation Time: 15:41Z on Wednesday
Coordinates: 17.9N 63.6W
Location: 166 statute miles (267 km) to the ESE (102°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (U.S.).
Pressure Altitude: 180 meters (591 feet)
Flight Level Wind: From 170° at 45 knots (From the S at ~ 51.7 mph)
- The above is a spot wind.
- Winds were obtained using doppler radar or inertial systems.
Flight Level Air Temperature: 21°C (70°F)
Flight Level Dew Point: 18°C (64°F)
Weather (within 30 nm): Shower(s) (continuous or intermittent precipitation - from cumuliform clouds)
Turbulence: Light
Conditions Along Flight Route: In and out of clouds
Radar Capability: Yes
Mean Sea Level Pressure (MSLP): 1010 mb (29.83 inHg), extrapolated

Additional Data...


Estimated Surface Wind: From 170° at 50 knots (From the S at ~ 57.5 mph)


Remarks Section ...


Surface Wind Speed (likely by SFMR): 40 knots (~ 46.0 mph)


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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 4336
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Invest 99L [Re: MikeC]
      #96574 - Wed Aug 24 2016 12:51 PM

A bit busy today: 12Z GFS Summary:

GFS Struggles with 99L again, stalling over Andros on Monday for a bit
No Florida landfall, but gets very close to west palm beach late Monday night. Pulls in Gaston very far west.

Still seems unlikely (the Gaston part). It's not handling Ex-Fiona and Gaston very well.

Shear will likely be a problem for the next 24 hours or so, the likelihood of it developing today is dropping.

HWRF Outright loses the system by Tomorrow.

Still no clarity other than a disorganize mess with either of these models.


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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 4336
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Invest 99L [Re: MikeC]
      #96578 - Wed Aug 24 2016 01:53 PM

12Z Euro Run for Today:

Initial Position good, near where the system currently is.
Tomorrow Morning: Just east of Turks/Caicos still relatively weak
Friday Morning: South Central Bahamas, slightly stronger, but still wave like.
Saturday Morning: Just east of Andros Island, Tropical Storm.
Sunday Morning: Just offshore east of Miami, Strengthening Tropical Storm.
Monday Morning: Just offshore wast of Naples, Becoming a hurricane.
Tuesday Morning: North Turn, Just offshore Tampa, cat 1 possibly strengthening to 3.
Wednesday Morning: Landfall Eastern Panhandle, Over Tallahassee Cat 2/3.


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