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Struggling Beta and now former Alpha that formed but then poofed over Portugal begin the Greek Alphabeta with weaker storms, so far
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Archives 2010s >> 2016 Forecast Lounge

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Lamar-Plant City
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 362
Loc: Plant City, Florida
Re: Invest 99L [Re: MikeC]
      #96579 - Wed Aug 24 2016 02:49 PM

The system is right in the middle of the 'Hebert box' right now. Does anyone know how well that applies to a system that is this weak? That latest Euro run is no better than the last couple for putting a system to my west in the gulf and strengthening. Local Met (Paul Delegatto) just tweeted about the new models with a big flashing "DON'T PANIC" sign below it....love that guy!

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If you don't like the weather, wait 5 minutes...
2017 Season Prediction: 16/7/3


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dolfinatic
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 126
Loc: St. Petersburg, Fl
Re: Invest 99L [Re: Lamar-Plant City]
      #96580 - Wed Aug 24 2016 03:16 PM

New Euro looks nasty for Tampa Bay. But tonight it will probably swing back west again.

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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
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Re: Invest 99L [Re: dolfinatic]
      #96583 - Wed Aug 24 2016 06:50 PM

18Z GFS:
keeps System weak the entire time, moves through florida Straits, into the Gulf, does not really develop int the gulf, eventually moves energy back into the Big bend of Florida Wednesday. Just rain.

Another weak run of the GFS. Fiona's remnant get merged into it.


18Z HWRF (Still running): Moves north of Hispaniola, weak the whole time, almost loses it there, then recovers it and has it south of the Central Bahamas on Friday morning. Loses track Friday afternoon, too weak, but recovers (maybe multiple vortices) later \

By Sunday afternoon, it has it as a Tropical storm just offshore of Ft. Lauderdale. Landfall very late Sunday night as a strong Tropical Storm (Strengthens just before landfall, which is the troubling part) Monday evening it's over Orlando (Tropical Storm)





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dolfinatic
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 126
Loc: St. Petersburg, Fl
Re: Invest 99L [Re: MikeC]
      #96591 - Thu Aug 25 2016 02:55 AM

ok. Not liking the trend of the Euro. Second run with this heading up the west coast of Florida. That's a Bad Bad scenario. Hope this trend doesn't continue.

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MikeCAdministrator
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Reged: Sun
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Re: Invest 99L [Re: dolfinatic]
      #96594 - Thu Aug 25 2016 05:40 AM

Quick ovrnight run summary:
Euro a bit stronger late tonight over Eastern Bahamas
Tomorrow night beginning to strengthen over Central Bahamas,
Saturday night, stronger (Strong TS) near Nassau
Landfall S. Florida (Miami/Homestead) late Sunday night (Strong TS or Cat 1 Hurricane, strengthening).
Gets into Gulf and just offshore Ft. Myers/Venice beach Monday night second landfall in the east Panhandle (and over Tallahassee) late Tuesday nigh as a cat 2 or possibly 3.

The earlier runs basically verified tonight with the system still weak but beginning to show signs of convection.

GFS: Keeps it weak over or just south of the Keys, into the Gulf and landfall in Eastern Panhandle as a depression/Tropical Storm.

HWRF struggles to keep up with it, manages to keep it south of Florida through the straights, no real development until the southeast Gulf where it forms into a Tropical Storm, end run has it a Tropical storm several hundred miles west of Key West in the Gulf.

CMC strong Tropical Storm or Hurricane into West Palm on Sunday Morning, keeps the system over or near Central/North Florida until Thursday.

NAVGEM has trouble latching on, but rides it up Florida as a weak storm.

Bottom line: Needs to be watched for Florida, Euro is a bit stronger, but consistant with where it puts the storm with the last two runs. GFS/HWRF still seem to be tripped up by the double circulation vortexes.


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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
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Re: Invest 99L [Re: MikeC]
      #96595 - Thu Aug 25 2016 05:47 AM

6Z run of the GFS model:

Has it just east of the southern tip of Andros island, weak, Saturday morning.
Over Key West Monday morning, still weak.
Slowly moving up offshore off the West coast of Florida.
Landfall Big Bend late Wednesday morning.



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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
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Re: Invest 99L [Re: MikeC]
      #96597 - Thu Aug 25 2016 07:57 AM

6Z HWRF: Struggles early on with position, settles on a spot Southeast of Florida early Sunday, strengthens to TS or low end cat 1 hurricane, crosses keys east of Key west late Sunday afternoon.

Run ends Tuesday morning as a Cat 3 hurricane in the Northeastern Gulf, about due south of mobile and due west of Tampa turning more to nnw.

The struggling to find the center in the early part of the run makes it suspect for positioning.


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jesse82nc
Registered User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 1
Re: Invest 99L [Re: MikeC]
      #96604 - Thu Aug 25 2016 11:21 AM

Based on the current models, some of them show it going up the east coast a bit. What's the best guess for a timeline when this might be passing through the NC/SC coastal areas if it does go this route?

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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
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Re: Invest 99L [Re: MikeC]
      #96607 - Thu Aug 25 2016 02:01 PM

12Z Model Summary (aka Weak!):

GFS mostly loses 99L then moves it into the Gulf where it does not develop and bends back over Florida, mostly just rainfall.


HWRF has trouble recognizing it again, but landfalls a tropical storm in the upper keys very late Sunday into Monday.

The ends with a cat 2 hurricane due south of Panama City Beach due west of Clearwater.


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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
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Re: Invest 99L [Re: MikeC]
      #96608 - Thu Aug 25 2016 02:04 PM

12Z Euro: Weaker this run,
Tomorrow morning, weaker, south of Central Bahama.
Saturday morning: organizing more, over/near Andros Island
Sunday morning: Over extreme S. Florida/Upper Keys weak sloppy TS
Monday morning: West of Naples, strengthening in the Gulf
Tuesday morning: West of Tampa, strong tropical storm/cat 1 hurricane.
Wednesday morning: Landfall Strong tropical storm cat 1 hurricane in the eastern Panhandle, goes over Tallahassee

Overall less chance for significant impact in S. Florida, but Gulf coast still is a wildcard.


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doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 984
Loc: parrish,fl
Re: Invest 99L [Re: MikeC]
      #96609 - Thu Aug 25 2016 02:43 PM

shear and decoupling taking their toll

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doug


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Lamar-Plant City
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 362
Loc: Plant City, Florida
Re: Invest 99L [Re: doug]
      #96610 - Thu Aug 25 2016 03:36 PM

Is the northeast quadrant beginning to stretch out and try to go around the center a bit....been checking in all day and waiting for that area to fire up as it pulls a bit away from Hispanola....

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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


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Re: Invest 99L [Re: craigm]
      #96612 - Thu Aug 25 2016 04:59 PM

The circulation associated with 99L continues westward, while the secondary circulation is still caught up in Hispaniola, the NAM (which typically is so bad at the tropics it's not worth mentioning in tropical runs) is now picking this up instead of the naked swirl to the west. Probably nothing, but an interesting footnote.

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MichaelA
Weather Analyst


Reged: Thu
Posts: 887
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
Re: Invest 99L [Re: MikeC]
      #96613 - Thu Aug 25 2016 05:04 PM

I'm beginning to lean toward no or minimal development. The less aggressive models may have this right. Of course, I'm not looking forward to 4 - 8 inches of rain either.

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Michael

WU PWS

2020 “guess:” 15/8/3
2020 Actual 23/8/2


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Tazmanian93
Weather Master


Reged: Sun
Posts: 487
Loc: Tampa
Re: Invest 99L [Re: MichaelA]
      #96614 - Thu Aug 25 2016 05:15 PM

If they were to ever retire an "Invest", ( I know they wouldn't) I'd vote for this one

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Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.

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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: Invest 99L [Re: Tazmanian93]
      #96615 - Thu Aug 25 2016 06:34 PM

So would I. While not living up to some expectations, it has certainly been an interesting system to watch. Right now in the last visible satellite images it looks like the LLC that was over Haiti is meeting up with the other LLC over Great Inagua Island - two swirls but no convection.
ED


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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 4336
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Invest 99L [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #96616 - Thu Aug 25 2016 06:54 PM

18Z GFS, no real discernable low to track

18Z HWRF: Splits wave, part into Cuba other South tip of Abaco island. (up to Saturday morning,
By the end of the run, Tuesday night, it is a category 3 hurricane in the Gulf about 25N 89W.


Bottom line: GFS loses it, but still needs to be watched, particularly in the Gulf. If anything comes out of it, it may take several days. It's basically resetting to square one.



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Prospero
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 238
Loc: Gulfport, FL
Re: Invest 99L [Re: MichaelA]
      #96617 - Thu Aug 25 2016 07:25 PM

I was watching and a bit surprised the sun didn't fire this one up today. But "Hermine" if she develops, might be waiting for a tug of the rising moon around midnight there on those warm waters...

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craigm
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 326
Loc: Palm City, Florida
Re: Invest 99L [Re: Prospero]
      #96618 - Thu Aug 25 2016 08:54 PM

Some great analysis from Tropical Tidbits - Levi Cohen

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

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Why I'm here:
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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: Invest 99L [Re: craigm]
      #96622 - Fri Aug 26 2016 01:11 AM

The 26/00Z GFS is a real trip - but no longer will I discard it. Takes 99L as a weak system through the Florida Straits then NW up to southeast LA then east along the north Gulf coast, drops southeast and makes landfall vicinity Tampa Sunday evening Sept 4th as a weak TS, crosses over to Melbourne on the 5th, exits into the Atlantic a short distance then turns northwest making landfall near the GA/SC border in the evening on Sept 6th - again as a TS. With all of the weird things that this system has done so far, I'm not about to doubt any of it
ED


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