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Archives 2010s >> 2016 Forecast Lounge

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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Invest 99L [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #96623 - Fri Aug 26 2016 04:44 AM

Beyond the odd triple landfall in MS/Tampa and South Carolina of the GFS.

HWRF starts moving the system to the keys early Sunday morning, Forms into a Tropical storm at or just west of Key West Hurricane in the Gulf by Tuesday morning. Cat 3 in the Central Gulf early Wednesday morning.

Euro:
Weak system (not even depression) into S. Florida from the south late Sunday night, rides up the middle of Florida, over Orlando Monday night as a rainmaker out by Jacksonville late Tuesday night.


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Invest 99L [Re: MikeC]
      #96624 - Fri Aug 26 2016 07:55 AM

6Z GFS is similar to the 0z one, but does not landfall the storm in MS, just sits int he Gulf and eventually landfalls north of Tampa a week from today on Friday afternoon.

6Z HWRF is about the same as the last run, with it in the Gulf as a Major south of Pensacola and West of Tampa (27.9N 86.6W) on Wednesday morning before the end runs.

In short the new model thinking is a long sit and spin in the Gufl.


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doug
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Re: Invest 99L [Re: MikeC]
      #96627 - Fri Aug 26 2016 09:20 AM

I think any "death announcement" for 99L is very premature....obviously there cannot be any real confidence unless the system re-forms a definite circulation, or not, and that could be under way this morning based on the visible evidence. The shear is supposed to relax considerably today and if the convection that is presently trying to get under way can persist things may change.

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Lamar-Plant City
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Re: Invest 99L [Re: doug]
      #96628 - Fri Aug 26 2016 09:51 AM

Quote:

I think any "death announcement" for 99L is very premature....obviously there cannot be any real confidence unless the system re-forms a definite circulation, or not, and that could be under way this morning based on the visible evidence. The shear is supposed to relax considerably today and if the convection that is presently trying to get under way can persist things may change.




I think I am with Doug here....there is a lot of growing convection in the southeast Bahamas as the original LLC moves away. I know this thing has to start from scratch, but there is a LOT of warm water in this area and I don't think we can discount rapid growth if another viable LLC forms under or close to the convection. It happens with enough regularity to consider, but possibly not enough regularity for the models to predict it accurately....

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Lamar-Plant City
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Re: Invest 99L [Re: Lamar-Plant City]
      #96635 - Fri Aug 26 2016 11:19 AM

Convection blow-up is becoming very impressive in and between Great Inagua and Acklins Island. From almost nothing to almost 150 mile wide major convection in just 6 hours. There is SO much energy in this area....don't blink or walk away from your computer over the next 24! For the mets here, is the flare up significant or just a diurnal aspect of a tropical wave??

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doug
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Re: Invest 99L [Re: Lamar-Plant City]
      #96638 - Fri Aug 26 2016 11:54 AM

It is my opinion based on a run through of the sats. that there is evidence of a circulation, at some level, in the convection now just south and west of Crooked Island, probably mid level. All of the various views suggested a point of circulation, and the low level swirl that is exposed is also noted in the visible. As long as the shear continues at the present level, it will not stack, or the mid level will not penetrate to the surface and become dominant. A hundred or so miles NW the shear is not as noticeable.

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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Invest 99L [Re: doug]
      #96641 - Fri Aug 26 2016 01:15 PM

12Z GFS run brings it into the Gulf but keeps it weak/wave the entire time, then sits near or onshore Florida until a week from tomorrow.

HWRF (Which I need to remind is good with established systems, but not so much with waves) does develop it a tropical storm off the Southwest Florida coastline Monday.

The convection persisting or not around the system is the short term focus, though.


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cieldumort
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Re: INVEST 99L [Re: cieldumort]
      #96646 - Fri Aug 26 2016 02:00 PM

In all likelihood, Invest 99L has been just-about-'callable' twice, already (and if it does get named, perhaps there will be consideration once the season is over to add some of its earlier incarnations to its track). Today, the parent wave we have been tracking as Invest 99L, with its associated pouch (P21L), has developed a new LLC, a little further north of where the old one was, and in a much more favorable location for organizing: 1) Closer to the peak vorticity of the parent wave - at its apex) 2) More removed from the detrimental air flow disruptions, dry air and subsidence of northern Hispaniola, and 3) Over progressively warmer waters. Additionally, shear is already relaxing, and is forecast to continue to drop from last night's brutal 20-30 knots, to under 10 knots by tomorrow night.


Above: New LLC forming within Invest 99L

Looking ahead - It is becoming clear that the upper atmosphere is turning somewhat favorable for development in the Atlantic basin-wide, especially so in the Gulf and Caribbean, with both the Madden Julian Oscillation and Collectively Coupled Kelvin Wave phases simultaneously turning supportive for the first time in quite a while. (Image below)


Credit: Michael Ventrice


In summary, 99L development odds of only 20% during the next 48 hours may prove very conservative.

-Ciel


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
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Re: Invest 99L [Re: MikeC]
      #96647 - Fri Aug 26 2016 02:09 PM

Low center of 99L at 26/18Z located near 23N 75W moving slowly to the west northwest. Convection is displaced to the east through southeast of the center by windshear although the shear is starting to relax and convection is developing closer to the low center. Additional development seems likely over the next couple of days (although with this system I think that I've said that before).
ED


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craigm
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Re: Invest 99L [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #96649 - Fri Aug 26 2016 02:24 PM

I think 99L needs a bass drum and some pink ears! Looks like the important variable with this system is persistence.

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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Invest 99L [Re: craigm]
      #96650 - Fri Aug 26 2016 02:28 PM

12Z Euro (models are getting less and less important the closer it gets to land) takes it into the gulf weak over the keys Sunday morning, then bends it back over Florida still relatively weak, but It doesn't leave the state until Tuesday night. Lots of rain for Florida.

Another piece of energy goes toward NC (not associated with 99L) Tuesday morning also.


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Invest 99L [Re: MikeC]
      #96651 - Fri Aug 26 2016 06:47 PM

18Z GFS sends the system up the Florida spine starting Sunday morning (spits some energy further west, where it dissipates), the system is very very disorganized and out Wednesday night near Jacksonville, rain maker.

18Z HWRF keeps it a tropical storm and moves it west in the gulf, dropping the big hurricane idea from earlier runs.


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Invest 99L [Re: MikeC]
      #96656 - Sat Aug 27 2016 08:13 AM

6Z GFS loses it but takes most of the moisture over Florida in a few Days


6Z HWRF starts it rapidly developing just northwest of the keys and drops a Major Hurricane coming into near Venice Beach on wednesday morning, exiting Daytona Thursday. (Note: HWRF is REALLY bad with weak/undeveloped systems and genesis, much better with established systems)


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Prospero
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Re: Invest 99L [Re: MikeC]
      #96659 - Sat Aug 27 2016 09:08 AM

Am I seeing a hint of circulation in the large area of convection just south and east of the main circulation in the latest sats?



www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-rb.html

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Prospero
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Re: Invest 99L [Re: Prospero]
      #96669 - Sat Aug 27 2016 05:16 PM

Some of the latest spaghetti plots are starting to converge over Tampa Bay and just north. I'm interested in the mets interpretations, although I know we are still a few days out.

I did some shopping today anyway, being in Gulfport, FL, buying water, batteries, etc.

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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Invest 99L [Re: doug]
      #96672 - Sat Aug 27 2016 09:24 PM

Bit of a late recap, but the 18Z models:


GFS 18Z: Moves it into the gulf, rain for keys/florida while it's in the Gulf, eventual Landfall on Friday in the big bend as a tropical storm.
Out Jacksonville Sep 3rd, then BACK over St. Augustine Sep 4th. and out north of Tampa into the Gulf again Eventually another landfall in Eastern Louisiana on Sept 8. (A bit crazy for sure, but the trend is 99L may be in the Gulf a while)

HWRF 18Z: Starts organizing just west of the Keys Monday afternoon,
Hits hurricane status in the Gulf sometime Tuesday
Worst case vector approach to Tampa Bay (for storm surge), landfall St.Pete/Tampa bay with 947 mb (strong cat 3 / borderline cat 4)
Rides up just south of the I-4 corridor and exits at Cape Canaveral, still a hurricane Thursday morning.
Important Note: HWRF historically overdoes intensity on systems that have yet to actually form, and does better with formed Depressions or Tropical Storms.

CMC Landfalling Hurricane Panama City Beach, Wednesday morning (cat 2/3)

In short, still some potential with the system, GFS is probably closest to reality(weaker, Tropical storm at best) but it IS late august and the Gulf is extremely hot, so the other situations aren't impossible, just very unlikely. Any system approaching west Florida like that is a difficult forecast because of the generally oblique angle of approach (doesn't take much for the track to very in landfall)


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TheElNino1
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Re: Invest 99L [Re: MikeC]
      #96674 - Sun Aug 28 2016 12:20 AM Attachment (252 downloads)

Have you seen the 12Z European forecast? It seems to have locked back on to 99l and is hinting at a possible Katrina like track into the Central Gulf Coast.

Edited by TheElNino1 (Sun Aug 28 2016 12:30 AM)


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Invest 99L [Re: TheElNino1]
      #96678 - Sun Aug 28 2016 08:42 AM

Overnight model runs (6z) for GFS

GFS gets up to a Tropical storm and takes it into the Big Bend Friday morning (near Steinhatchee) then sits it over the northern side of the state near Jacksonville until Monday, then backs it out over the Gulf, bringing some rain to Louisiana, (another system then comes along into Georgia from the east at the end of the run, but that's incredibly far out)

Euro strengthens the system in the Gulf, takes it over the Big Bend as a hurricane Friday, then out near Savannah Saturday early, then rides it up the Carolina coastline, bending away just before Hatteras, on the following Sunday. Euro also shows another, unrelated, hurricane in the Bahamas on Sept 7.

HWRF Fires it up a bit later in the Gulf than earlier runs, but throws a landfalling cat 2/3 into the big bend late Wednesday into Thursday.near Crystal River.

Bottom line, models seem to be converging on the Big Bend area, but mostly late in the week, which introduces some error. Basically the west coast of Florida and Northern Gulf coasts will need to watch the system, as the track may shift left or right a bit during the week. Intensity seems to be Tropical Storm or low end hurricane, with the outlier being HWRF which takes it up to major. Again, until something really forms it'll be hard to say.

Beyond 99L another sytem will have a chance to get close to the Bahamas and Southeast around sep 8-11, but there's a long time to watch for that, and that one probably will be a developed system for much longer. It's development still not likely until tomorrow night.




Edited by cieldumort (Sun Aug 28 2016 11:14 AM)


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Mcgowanjm
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Re: Invest 99L [Re: TheElNino1]
      #96683 - Sun Aug 28 2016 10:34 AM

Quote:

Have you seen the 12Z European forecast? It seems to have locked back on to 99l and is hinting at a possible Katrina like track into the Central Gulf Coast.





The next 9-12 hrs. I like 99l to move toward Marathon and then over/under KW. 99l then slows and builds to TS.

If it doesn't strengthen tonite, I think it runs out of time. IMHO



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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Invest 99L [Re: Mcgowanjm]
      #96684 - Sun Aug 28 2016 12:08 PM

12Z GFS for today,
Takes 99L a bit further west into the Gulf than the prior runs, and takes a bit longer to organize, but still bends it back toward the Big Bend of Florida for a landfall on Friday. Strong TS/Low end hurricane (assuming its still strengthening then, if not mid TS). Also keeps TD#8 offshore, and spins up a phantom low east of Georgia that quickly shoots out to sea in the same timeframe.

Over Jacksonville Friday morning then exits out to sea, still moving very slowly, organizing some more offshore, but doesn't (yet) seem to be bending back onshore as of that Saturday night. And wait... Sunday morning starts bending back to the north, hurricane approaching the outer banks by midday then rides the coast up through the Delmarva.

HWRF doesn't get anything going until early Tuesday, landfall cat 2 or borderline hurricane (960mb) near New Port Richie on Thursday morning and out late Thursday afternoon near St. Augustine.





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