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Struggling Beta and now former Alpha that formed but then poofed over Portugal begin the Greek Alphabeta with weaker storms, so far
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 5 (Sally) , Major: 25 (Laura) Florida - Any: 712 (Michael) Major: 712 (Michael)
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Archives 2010s >> 2016 Forecast Lounge

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craigm
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 326
Loc: Palm City, Florida
Re: TD NINE [Re: Owlguin]
      #96753 - Tue Aug 30 2016 05:09 PM

Hurricane watch just posted n of Tampa through the big bend

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Why I'm here:
Weather Junkie


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Lamar-Plant City
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 362
Loc: Plant City, Florida
Re: TD NINE [Re: craigm]
      #96754 - Tue Aug 30 2016 05:14 PM

Seeing a report on twitter that the pressure dropped from 1008 to 1006 while recon was in the storm. Signs of intensification? Trying to hedge my bets on whether Hillsborough county might cancel classes on Thursday...they have a history of disregarding T.S.s and have gotten lucky the past few years....

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If you don't like the weather, wait 5 minutes...
2017 Season Prediction: 16/7/3


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MichaelA
Weather Analyst


Reged: Thu
Posts: 887
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
Re: TD NINE [Re: Lamar-Plant City]
      #96756 - Tue Aug 30 2016 05:44 PM

The last few frames of the RGB Floater are showing new convection near the low level center. Also, the mid/upper level center south of a he apparent LLC.
Floater

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Michael

WU PWS

2020 “guess:” 15/8/3
2020 Actual 23/8/2


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Doombot!
Weather Guru


Reged: Sat
Posts: 160
Loc: Lakeland, Fl.
Re: TD NINE [Re: MichaelA]
      #96759 - Tue Aug 30 2016 07:42 PM

Agreed. It looks like the system might be reforming to the south or at least the sheer has abated enough that it might be in the beginning stages of stacking up. So basically, it's going to be getting a lot stronger or continue to remain disorganized.



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cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1994
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: TD NINE [Re: cieldumort]
      #96764 - Tue Aug 30 2016 08:10 PM

Mod Reminder

The site is getting understandably very busy now. When posting, please take the time not to start a new thread when one already exists, or putting forth questions that have already been asked (In other words, always look before posting or asking, you might find that there is no need to do so.) This helps keep the site free of clutter and confusion.

This is the TD NINE Lounge. This is where to post gut feelings, ask a few related questions, share model runs, etc., specifically for NINE (And its subsequent name, should it get one).

Thanks,

Ciel

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COVID-19 kills. Please practice the 3 Ws: Wear a mask. Watch your distance. Wash your hands.


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MichaelA
Weather Analyst


Reged: Thu
Posts: 887
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
Re: TD NINE [Re: Doombot!]
      #96765 - Tue Aug 30 2016 08:20 PM

I like to use earth.nullschool.net to visualize what is going on. TD9 looks to be stacked through 700mb and then tilted somewhat south through 500mb. At 250mb, the SW shear over th NW quadrant becomes obvious. The Floater seems to confirm this. Nice convective blowup on the latst frames of the floater.

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Michael

WU PWS

2020 “guess:” 15/8/3
2020 Actual 23/8/2


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Doombot!
Weather Guru


Reged: Sat
Posts: 160
Loc: Lakeland, Fl.
Re: TD NINE [Re: MichaelA]
      #96772 - Tue Aug 30 2016 09:44 PM

Super nifty! Even works on my phone. It's neat to see how stacked Gaston is, vs. 9.

Awesome tool.


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Colleen A.
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
Re: TD NINE [Re: Owlguin]
      #96775 - Tue Aug 30 2016 11:13 PM

I just saw that on Bay News 9...seems like it's starting to get it's act together.

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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 4336
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: TD NINE [Re: MichaelA]
      #96778 - Wed Aug 31 2016 01:33 AM

0z Models: GFS Landfall big bend Late Thursday as a Tropical Storm, then rides up the southeast US coastlne a bit stronger out by Hatteras on Saturday morning.

Euro 0z: stronger (977mb/cat 1/2) hurricane late Thursday with a landfall just east of east of Apalachicola then rides up the southeast US coastline and out by Charleston on Saturday morning.

HWRF: Landfall cat 1 hurricane in Big Bend Thursday afternoon, then bends out to sea midday Friday near Myrtle Beach

It's a waiting game, Thursday will be a lot of rain, some short lived tornadoes, and 6-9 feet of surge is forecast near the Suwanee area in the Big Bend. Storm surge map http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/032811.shtml?inundation#contents



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MichaelA
Weather Analyst


Reged: Thu
Posts: 887
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
Re: TD NINE [Re: MikeC]
      #96782 - Wed Aug 31 2016 08:31 AM

TD9 is starting to look fairly impressive on the satellite loops this morning with an expanding CDO and good outflow. The shear has also decreased significantly. Still waiting for that TS designation.

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Michael

WU PWS

2020 “guess:” 15/8/3
2020 Actual 23/8/2


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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser


Reged: Tue
Posts: 826
Loc: Puerto Morelos,Mx
Re: TD NINE [Re: MichaelA]
      #96783 - Wed Aug 31 2016 08:35 AM

I would think this system has a shot at rapid intensification just for the fact that it is sitting in very warm water and the pressure is dropping and also convection is flaring up.

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Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


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M.A.
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
Posts: 106
Loc: Vero Beach, Fl
Re: TD NINE [Re: MichaelA]
      #96787 - Wed Aug 31 2016 09:01 AM

I agree. I believe the latest convective burst has brought it over the threshold. Very warm water and reduced shear give it the potential to ramp up quickly.

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Rasvar
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
Re: TD NINE [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #96788 - Wed Aug 31 2016 09:11 AM

Looking at some of the ship reports in the last hour, one NW of the center was reporting 40 kt winds. Wouldn't be surprised to see upgraded to TS at next advisory.

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Jim


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cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1994
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: TD NINE [Re: Rasvar]
      #96789 - Wed Aug 31 2016 09:19 AM

Quote:


Looking at some of the ship reports in the last hour, one NW of the center was reporting 40 kt winds. Wouldn't be surprised to see upgraded to TS at next advisory.





Gotta take ship reports with a grain of salt. There is often little in the way of anemometer elevation standardization, let alone quality control. Last ship report I read about that came in at TS was up over 100'

As for Rapid Intensification, it certainly looks increasingly possible, but NINE is also comprised of a pretty large cyclonic wind field, which would (and arguably has) acted to slow intensification. However, perhaps counter-intuitively to many, its larger size will promote storm surge and inland flooding much more so than a small tropical cyclone of the 'same intensity.' Max. wind speed ≠ overall impacts from tropical cyclones.


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Mcgowanjm
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 14
Loc: NWArkansas
Re: TD NINE [Re: MichaelA]
      #96790 - Wed Aug 31 2016 09:21 AM

Quote:

TD9 is starting to look fairly impressive on the satellite loops this morning with an expanding CDO and good outflow. The shear has also decreased significantly. Still waiting for that TS designation.




Someone from Clearwater just now:
"I've never seen rain like this and I've lived here since '76. the past 4 hours."

The NoName Storm in July brought 31 inches to East Baton Rouge. In 36 hours.

Ts 9 occupies or will in the next few occupy 1/2 of the Gulf.

Just a 'growth' of TD 9 by a few degrees will put a feeder band at the Mouth of the Ms River.

And just a btw...How come I can find cities, mountains, fires make their own weather, but nothing
With hurricanes........


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Hawkeyewx
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sun
Posts: 99
Re: TD NINE [Re: Mcgowanjm]
      #96792 - Wed Aug 31 2016 09:40 AM

A large blob of deep convection looks pretty on satellite, but ultimately, it's what's going on underneath it that's important. We've seen plenty of very pretty blobs over weaker, sloppier systems that this. Presumably, this system has become at least a little better organized, but we need recon to get in there and find out.

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Colleen A.
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
Re: TD NINE [Re: Mcgowanjm]
      #96793 - Wed Aug 31 2016 09:46 AM

We had thunderstorms here this morning which almost had me on the ceiling! I don't know if they had anything to do with TD9, though.

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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 984
Loc: parrish,fl
Re: TD NINE [Re: Colleen A.]
      #96795 - Wed Aug 31 2016 10:09 AM

Rain consistently since 6 a.m.....question: how strong is the confidence level in the projected track?...it seems the ULL in the SECONUS if it remains as is will keep it from going as far North and west as projected

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doug


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BayCoGator
Weather Watcher


Reged: Fri
Posts: 27
Loc: NW Florida
Re: TD NINE [Re: Hawkeyewx]
      #96796 - Wed Aug 31 2016 10:10 AM

That's very true. The last few frames on the visible seem to show deeper convection coalescing in the vicinity of the COC. That, combined with the healthier outflow and, at least from an appearance standpoint the rather symmetrical expansion of convection - particularly on the western/northwestern side where it was struggling with shear and drier air - would all seem to indicate 09 is starting to get its act together. Perhaps its fair to say that 09 is finally looking the part of an organizing and strengthening system. And it's pretty large for a TD.

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Mcgowanjm
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 14
Loc: NWArkansas
Re: TD NINE [Re: Hawkeyewx]
      #96797 - Wed Aug 31 2016 10:11 AM

Can someone verify that recon units have been transferred to Hawaii? And we're trying out GlobalHawks in the Gulf..

Aug 19, 2016 - Denham Springs High School takes on water in the Denham Springs area during severe ... estimate of roughly 110,000 homes, valued at $20.7 billion, that could have flooded because ...

Hurricane Andrew was, at the time of its occurrence in August 1992, ... Throughout its path, Andrew left 65 dead and $26 billion in damage (1992 USD, $43.8 billion 2016 USD); Florida is exposed.


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