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Archives 2010s >> 2016 Forecast Lounge

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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser


Reged: Tue
Posts: 826
Loc: Puerto Morelos,Mx
Re: TD NINE [Re: Mcgowanjm]
      #96799 - Wed Aug 31 2016 11:05 AM

I would have bet the farm that they would have named TD9 at 11,but they did not.System is looking very healthy right now.

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


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Doombot!
Weather Guru


Reged: Sat
Posts: 160
Loc: Lakeland, Fl.
Re: TD NINE [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #96800 - Wed Aug 31 2016 11:07 AM

Quote:

I would have bet the farm that they would have named TD9 at 11,but they did not.System is looking very healthy right now.




I've seen hurricanes look worse and have higher pressures.


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: TD NINE [Re: Mcgowanjm]
      #96802 - Wed Aug 31 2016 11:18 AM

NOAA Recon is scheduled to takeoff at 16Z. They are working TD 9 since USAF Recon is handling Madeline in the Central Pacific.

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Rasvar
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
Re: TD NINE [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #96804 - Wed Aug 31 2016 12:09 PM

Also Global Hawk mission is also scheduled to take off at 6pm EDT. I'll be interested to see what NOAA43 finds. Hopefully no more mechanical issues like the one that scrubbed last nights mission.

--------------------
Jim


Edited by Rasvar (Wed Aug 31 2016 12:10 PM)


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doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 984
Loc: parrish,fl
Re: TD NINE [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #96810 - Wed Aug 31 2016 01:48 PM

The most recent RGB single &/loop image seems to present a double circulation: one at 24.5N- 87.3 W and the other at 24.6N - 86.5W...the latter could be an artifact; however, it has a definite motion NNE'ly. Either way there has been very little actual movement since last evening; but maybe there is an easterly component to the movement now.?

--------------------
doug


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Lamar-Plant City
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 362
Loc: Plant City, Florida
Re: TD NINE [Re: doug]
      #96812 - Wed Aug 31 2016 01:54 PM

Quote:

The most recent RGB single &/loop image seems to present a double circulation: one at 24.5N- 87.3 W and the other at 24.6N - 86.5W...the latter could be an artifact; however, it has a definite motion NNE'ly. Either way there has been very little actual movement since last evening; but maybe there is an easterly component to the movement now.?




Could also be the wobbling/oscillation of a weak system...hard to know when there isn't an eye-type feature to focus on. The system still isn't quite stacked up through the atmosphere so is may just be wobbling.

--------------------
If you don't like the weather, wait 5 minutes...
2017 Season Prediction: 16/7/3


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doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 984
Loc: parrish,fl
Re: TD NINE [Re: Lamar-Plant City]
      #96815 - Wed Aug 31 2016 02:44 PM

I disagree, there is a new LLC at 25N -86.7W moving fairly quickly NNE..no mistake about it. What ever was at 88 is no longer visible.

--------------------
doug


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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 4336
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: TD NINE [Re: doug]
      #96816 - Wed Aug 31 2016 03:00 PM

Very interesting 12Z runs:

Euro: Now takes a borderline cat 1 hurricane into near Panama City Beach Friday morning, then up through he southeast out by the DelMarva, stalls it south of Atlantic City, then takes it BACK to close the outer banks of NC near next Thursday as a hurricane.

GFS: Strong Tropical storm near Panama City Beach Friday morning the rides the southeast coast just inland until Labor day before sending it out to sea.

HWRF: Landfall near St. Marks, FL Late Thursday night, Tropical Storm, exits the coast near Myrtle Beach, SC by late Friday night.

If it were to get positioned to strengthen at a good clip overnight tonight into tomorrow morning would be it.


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dolfinatic
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 126
Loc: St. Petersburg, Fl
Re: TD NINE [Re: MikeC]
      #96818 - Wed Aug 31 2016 04:13 PM

It looks like the models initialized too far west of the real center. I would suspect a shift back east over time back toward the big bend. Closer to cedar key. Just my opinion for what that's worth. lol


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Colleen A.
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
Re: TD NINE [Re: dolfinatic]
      #96819 - Wed Aug 31 2016 05:03 PM

You just never know with these storms, do you? It's been raining like crazy here today & I know they are from the outer bands - seems like it's lightened up a bit in the last 1/2 hour, though! Just stay aware and safe! :-)

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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Mcgowanjm
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 14
Loc: NWArkansas
Re: TD NINE [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #96823 - Wed Aug 31 2016 07:24 PM

Quote:

NOAA Recon is scheduled to takeoff at 16Z. They are working TD 9 since USAF Recon is handling Madeline in the Central Pacific.




Thank you for your knowledge. That's good info.

James


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Colleen A.
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
Re: TD NINE [Re: Mcgowanjm]
      #96826 - Wed Aug 31 2016 08:57 PM

They are saying that in some spots - in Pinellas County that they are receiving rain amounts over 9" + ( just today) and that tomorrow will be worse. I'm in Polk County and my husband has drained the pool twice - and it's almost overflowing. I can't imagine what tomorrow will bring. I will look like a drowned rat when I go into work tomorrow. If I go...it's a volunteer job. Either I go or I don't - either way, I'm bringing a change of clothes! Now the thunder is starting. Stay safe everyone!

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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Doombot!
Weather Guru


Reged: Sat
Posts: 160
Loc: Lakeland, Fl.
Eastward jump. [Re: Colleen A.]
      #96828 - Wed Aug 31 2016 09:43 PM

Someone noted this in another thread about the time I was, but if it seems correct and worth mentioning.

If you go with no enhancements (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/09L/imagery/ir_lalo-animated.gif) it looks like H takes big eastward hop between the last 3 frames, right as night falls.


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dolfinatic
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 126
Loc: St. Petersburg, Fl
Re: Eastward jump. [Re: Doombot!]
      #96833 - Wed Aug 31 2016 10:23 PM

It has already gone east of the forecast points. If you look at sat image and put forecast points on it is plainly obvious. I think it is moving more Ne at the moment which will probably send the track back more toward the southern end of the big bend area. Just my thoughts for what they are worth

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Mcgowanjm
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 14
Loc: NWArkansas
Re: TD NINE [Re: Colleen A.]
      #96834 - Wed Aug 31 2016 10:46 PM

I'll always remember this storm as 99LHermine.

And I wasn't familiar with HRRR Composite before 99L but it's 16 hr forecasts have been as accurate
As any and the latest 01z Thurs has it almost due W of Tampa at 87W 27N this time tomorrow.

That would be just one more amazing feat for 99LHermine.

I'm familiar with Lower MS River drainage. I hope Tampa's is better.

Much Good Luck.


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cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1994
Loc: Austin, Tx
HERMINE [Re: cieldumort]
      #96836 - Wed Aug 31 2016 11:24 PM

TROPICAL STORM HERMINE

There are a few very impressive footnotes worth mentioning tonight:

*We began formally tracking this feature in its own Lounge thread nearly two weeks ago, when its parent wave and pouch were just southwest of the Cabo Verde islands

*Pre-Hermine Invest 99L produced the strongest ship report from a tropical wave many of us have ever seen (70 knots)

*Pre-Hermine was actually said to be on life support by many on at least two separate occasions while getting hung up over the Greater Antilles, and upon entering the Florida Straits

* Hermine has intensified from a 35 MPH TD this morning to a 60 MPH TS 12 hours later tonight.

*At present, several of the most reliable models suggest a landfall around the Big Bend between Cat 1 and Cat 2, and the official NHC forecast now calls for a landfalling hurricane. This would be the first Florida hurricane landfall in 11 years, ending a record hurricane drought for the state

*First Hurricane Warning for Gulf Coast in 4 years

*Several of the most reliable models then run Hermine up the east coast to loop and/or stall, potentially bombing out as a powerful subtropical hybrid, and thus staying with us for yet another week from today


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Lamar-Plant City
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 362
Loc: Plant City, Florida
Re: TD NINE [Re: Mcgowanjm]
      #96837 - Wed Aug 31 2016 11:26 PM

Quote:

I'll always remember this storm as 99LHermine.

And I wasn't familiar with HRRR Composite before 99L but it's 16 hr forecasts have been as accurate
As any and the latest 01z Thurs has it almost due W of Tampa at 87W 27N this time tomorrow.

That would be just one more amazing feat for 99LHermine.

I'm familiar with Lower MS River drainage. I hope Tampa's is better.

Much Good Luck.




Nope....most of Tampa has HORRIBLE drainage. We don't even have to get a TS to have far too much flooding, both in low-lying areas and some not so low They keep promising to fix it, but the same places are in the news each time with flooding. SO glad school was cancelled tomorrow..this is going to be a heavy flooding event and I am also glad I am NOT in a flood zone (was a requirement when I bought a house)....

--------------------
If you don't like the weather, wait 5 minutes...
2017 Season Prediction: 16/7/3


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Mcgowanjm
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 14
Loc: NWArkansas
Re: TD NINE [Re: Lamar-Plant City]
      #96849 - Thu Sep 01 2016 10:03 AM

Just so long as Jim Get those kids out of the surf Cantore doesn't show up on your door
Step, you should be ok.



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dolfinatic
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 126
Loc: St. Petersburg, Fl
Re: TD NINE [Re: Mcgowanjm]
      #96850 - Thu Sep 01 2016 10:36 AM

I am really surprised that the Hurricane center did not extend the TS warnings down through the Tampa bay area. From the looks of radar we are going to get a good dose of the heavier rainbands and I'm quite sure there is TS winds in them. I think they dropped the ball on that point. Hope people have at least prepped their yards so we don't have a bunch of stuff flying around.

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doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 984
Loc: parrish,fl
Re: TD NINE [Re: MikeC]
      #96851 - Thu Sep 01 2016 10:45 AM

GFS and HWRF proved to have the best handle on this system. Most of us questioned them last week but here we are.... Here in Parrish we are about to get the influence of that large band on he east side. Should be good for several hours more rain. About 5.5 uncles since 6 am yesterday so far

--------------------
doug


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