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Struggling Beta and now former Alpha that formed but then poofed over Portugal begin the Greek Alphabeta with weaker storms, so far
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 5 (Sally) , Major: 25 (Laura) Florida - Any: 712 (Michael) Major: 712 (Michael)
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Archives 2010s >> 2016 Forecast Lounge

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BayCoGator
Weather Watcher


Reged: Fri
Posts: 27
Loc: NW Florida
Re: TD NINE [Re: doug]
      #96853 - Thu Sep 01 2016 11:15 AM

The COC is mostly visible on the long-range base loop. There certainly doesn't seem to be much of an eastward component (yet) to the forward motion.

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dolfinatic
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 126
Loc: St. Petersburg, Fl
Re: TD NINE [Re: Lamar-Plant City]
      #96854 - Thu Sep 01 2016 11:26 AM Attachment (217 downloads)

Really strange no warnings for Tampa area. Probabilities for TS winds keep going up. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT09/refresh/AL0916_PROB34_F120+gif/093138.gif

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Keith B
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sun
Posts: 44
Loc: FL, Orange County
Re: TD NINE [Re: dolfinatic]
      #96857 - Thu Sep 01 2016 01:09 PM

I do not post to often. Apologies if I am out of line.
****

Per NWS Melbourne chat room:


TROPICAL STORM HERMINE TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS National Hurricane Center MIAMI FL AL092016
1155 AM CDT THU SEP 01 2016

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING EXTENDED SOUTHWARD ALONG THE GULF AND
EAST COASTS OF FLORIDA...

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that tropical-storm-force winds extend significantly farther to the
east of the center of Hermine than they did earlier. This requires
the extension of the Tropical Storm Warning southward along the Gulf
coast of Florida to Englewood, and along the Florida east coast
southward to the Flagler/Volusia County line.

A special advisory will be issued within the next 30 minutes to
update the forecast and warnings for Hermine.

--------------------
Keith Boyer N4TRN
Orange County ARES
Asst. Emerg. Coord. (AEC) Skywarn Orange County, FL
http://www.ocares.org/


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dolfinatic
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 126
Loc: St. Petersburg, Fl
Re: TD NINE [Re: Keith B]
      #96860 - Thu Sep 01 2016 01:31 PM

000
WTNT34 KNHC 011713
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HERMINE SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 17...CORRECTED
NWS National Hurricane Center MIAMI FL AL092016
1200 PM CDT THU SEP 01 2016

CORRECTED TO REPLACE ARIPEKA WITH LONGBOAT KEY IN FIRST
PARAGRAPH OF STORM SURGE HAZARD STATEMENT

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING EXTENDED SOUTHWARD ALONG FLORIDA GULF AND
ATLANTIC COASTS...


SUMMARY OF 1200 PM CDT...1700 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.8N 85.6W
ABOUT 135 MI...220 KM SSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM W OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning has been extended southward along the
west coast of Florida to Englewood, including the greater Tampa/St.
Petersburg area, and southward along the east coast of Florida to
the Flagler/Volusia County line.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Suwannee River to Mexico Beach

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Anclote River to Suwannee River
* West of Mexico Beach to the Walton/Bay County line

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Englewood to Suwannee River
* West of Mexico Beach to the Walton/Bay County line
* Flagler/Volusia County line to Surf City

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Surf City to Oregon Inlet, including Pamlico Sound

Interests elsewhere along the United States mid-Atlantic and
northeast coast should monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


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Colleen A.
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
Re: TD NINE [Re: Keith B]
      #96862 - Thu Sep 01 2016 01:42 PM

I do not believe you were out of line by posting that information; I was wondering the same thing. I'm watching BayNews 9 and they just said that the TS warnings have been extended south to Manatee, Hillsborough and Pinellas County. I volunteer at Lakeland Volunteers in Medicine and our county (Polk) was included in the State Offices that were being closed at noon by Governor Scott, which meant that the doctors and other state employees that work there had to leave at noon. Good information and thanks for sharing - unless a lot of people are watching this storm as closely as were are, they probably do not know this information. Have a great day & stay safe!

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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Keith B
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sun
Posts: 44
Loc: FL, Orange County
Re: TD NINE [Re: Colleen A.]
      #96863 - Thu Sep 01 2016 01:53 PM

Thanks Colleen. : )

I figured so since it was an important update.

--------------------
Keith Boyer N4TRN
Orange County ARES
Asst. Emerg. Coord. (AEC) Skywarn Orange County, FL
http://www.ocares.org/


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cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1994
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: HURRICANE HERMINE [Re: cieldumort]
      #96869 - Thu Sep 01 2016 03:22 PM

Hermine is now a powerful Cat 1 Hurricane, and still strengthening into landfall. Given the bathymetry of the region Hermine is coming ashore on, surge is likely to be higher, potentially locally much higher, than usual for its intensity. Additionally, coming ashore into the bend could help to tighten up the tropical cyclone, giving Hermine an extra kicker as he pushes in.

Residents of northwest Fl are likely to see life-threatening storm surge and should be following all evacuation orders, as well as rushing any last hurricane prep to completion.

Once inland, Hermine will most probably only slowly wind down initially, and then may actually re-intensify (not the official forecast), somewhere between the Carolinas and the Mid Atlantic. Depending on how much Hermine gets back out over the water, and how much it is interacting with a mid-latitude system then, the cyclone has the potential to become a dangerous superstorm around there early next week (Again, Lounge caveats apply!)

Just a reminder to members new and old, let's please keep messaging to private IMs during active events. It will help to keep the forum free of clutter for those needing to find valuable information fast.


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pcbjr
Registered User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 8
Re: HURRICANE HERMINE [Re: cieldumort]
      #96870 - Thu Sep 01 2016 03:36 PM

Hopefully someone can post and tag area wind and rainfall expectations by general region as those become clearer (e.g., Tampa, Big Bend, inland NC Fla (Lake City/Gainesville), Tallahassee, JAX etc) - would help a lot.

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cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1994
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: HURRICANE HERMINE [Re: pcbjr]
      #96873 - Thu Sep 01 2016 04:23 PM

Forecasts vary, and Hermine may actually come ashore at an even higher category, but at present, The Weather Channel's wind forecast is putting 94 MPH gusts in Tallahassee around midnight. That seems reasonable, and will probably be felt in more places near or in the eyewall.

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Mcgowanjm
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 14
Loc: NWArkansas
Re: TD NINE [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #96877 - Thu Sep 01 2016 05:45 PM

Quote:

I would have bet the farm that they would have named TD9 at 11,but they did not.System is looking very healthy right now.



That was yesterday almost noon.


I don't think people are ready for 99Lhermine.
It.'s really blowing up.

Praying for Florida.


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craigm
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 326
Loc: Palm City, Florida
Re: HURRICANE HERMINE [Re: cieldumort]
      #96879 - Thu Sep 01 2016 06:09 PM

Quote:

Forecasts vary, and Hermine may actually come ashore at an even higher category, but at present, The Weather Channel's wind forecast is putting 94 MPH gusts in Tallahassee around midnight. That seems reasonable, and will probably be felt in more places near or in the eyewall.



Agree with your higher category assessment. Eye is clearing out and CDO developing in all quadrants.

--------------------
Why I'm here:
Weather Junkie


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Lamar-Plant City
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 362
Loc: Plant City, Florida
Re: TD NINE [Re: Mcgowanjm]
      #96880 - Thu Sep 01 2016 06:12 PM

Delegatto on channel 13 in Tampa just showed a 76 mpg wind gust at a buoy south of Apalachicola....Hillsborough has closed schools tomorrow (5 day weekend!!) due to high wind concerns in the morning based on the current forecasts. Looks like Hermine is going to finally make some real news and it may not good. Have a good friend in Tallahassee but he watches this site and it pretty hurricane savvy so I am not too worried.

--------------------
If you don't like the weather, wait 5 minutes...
2017 Season Prediction: 16/7/3


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Colleen A.
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
Re: TD NINE [Re: Lamar-Plant City]
      #96882 - Thu Sep 01 2016 07:02 PM

Quiet here so far...just heard on BN9 they had a reported wind gust of 78 mph near Indian Rocks Beach. As I say this, the wind is picking up and it's beginning to rain here.

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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Colleen A.
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
Re: TD NINE [Re: Colleen A.]
      #96892 - Thu Sep 01 2016 11:59 PM

Have friends staying with me from Mulberry; they lost their power w/TECO. Website says 15,000+ are without power in the affected areas. Wind is blowing - nothing big, not a lot of rain. Praying for the people being directly affected by the storm.

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1994
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: HERMINE FORECAST LOUNGE [Re: cieldumort]
      #96895 - Fri Sep 02 2016 12:42 AM

Hermine is just about making landfall apparently east of St Marks. At its peak, recon and velocity data were confirming winds aloft between 90 and 100 knots around the eye, and also within the most intense band. This would usually translate to about 85 to 100 MPH at the surface. Hermine is a sprawling cyclone, and ingested some dry air within the past few hours, so it has been held in check some by those factors, as such, it is sort of unknown how much of these strongest winds effectively translated to he surface.

Now pushing inland, hurricane force winds in gust will likely be experienced within the rough eyewall and the stronget bands. Historic storm surge is also underway at some locations.


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Mcgowanjm
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 14
Loc: NWArkansas
Re: HERMINE FORECAST LOUNGE [Re: cieldumort]
      #96904 - Fri Sep 02 2016 10:47 AM

Just talked to my USGS son in law, yeah, I'm old. This is the Second time in 3 months he's
Gone to La to reset water marks and Flood Zones.

This was a 1000 year Flood. A .01 % chance in an given year.

Homes were completely under water. Majority no flood insurance.

FEMA's handing out $500 and Best f Luck.

La's not an aberration. Just the first in line. My point:

New England hasn't recovered from Sandy. The dunes aren't there any more.

I think 99Lhermine does what it did with Cuba. Hugging the Coast. From the water side.

Edited by Mcgowanjm (Fri Sep 02 2016 10:49 AM)


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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 4336
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: HERMINE FORECAST LOUNGE [Re: Mcgowanjm]
      #96906 - Fri Sep 02 2016 11:34 AM

Forecast has it regaining hurricane strength offshore of Delaware and sitting around that area for a few days, it's going to pound that area of the mid-atlantic and northeast.

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Mcgowanjm
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 14
Loc: NWArkansas
Re: HERMINE FORECAST LOUNGE [Re: MikeC]
      #96911 - Fri Sep 02 2016 01:08 PM

Quote:

Forecast has it regaining hurricane strength offshore of Delaware and sitting around that area for a few days, it's going to pound that area of the mid-atlantic and northeast.




Looking for Hermine to go over Ediisto Beach SC. Coastal Virginia water at 30C/86F.


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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser


Reged: Tue
Posts: 826
Loc: Puerto Morelos,Mx
Re: HERMINE FORECAST LOUNGE [Re: Mcgowanjm]
      #96914 - Sat Sep 03 2016 09:45 AM

This storm could be a real problem for the North East.

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


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Mcgowanjm
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 14
Loc: NWArkansas
Re: HERMINE FORECAST LOUNGE [Re: Mcgowanjm]
      #96915 - Sat Sep 03 2016 09:49 AM

Aug 20-Rain creates flash flooding on LI's North Shore.




So the ground is saturated. Leaves are still on the trees. And Hermine will be at the
Mouth of the Hudson/Tom's River, pushing water into the LI Sound and
The East River....at High Tide.


Sandy, in contrast, was only at the Mouth and pushing water into the Sound.

But still no TS Warning for LI...at the least LaGuardia and Rockaway get flooded.


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