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Azores #96L fails to complete transition into a Sub-Tropical Storm. Elsewhere, weak low pressure in Caribbean may linger into next week.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 40 (Nate) , Major: 58 (Maria) Florida - Any: 68 (Irma) Major: 68 (Irma)
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Archives >> 2016 News Talkbacks

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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 3888
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Busy Map, Little Organization
      #96655 - Sat Aug 27 2016 06:52 AM

There are 4 areas in the tropical Atlantic being discussed right now, one, Gaston is an active Tropical Storm, but is also no threat to land.

The other area 99L, is still over the Bahamas, and still very disorganized with a 40% chance to develop over the next few days as it gets into the Gulf, briging some rain to Florida but likely not much more However, it still must be watched when it gets into the Gulf of Mexico, as it still has a shot at development there, and may turn back over Florida later. If you have been following it for a while you are probably tired of it, but it *still* must be watched.

91L is a system that is combined energy from a trough from a few days ago along with the remnants of Fiona, this is also given a shot to organize, but is fighting off a lot of dry air and shear, models do not develop it, but it is expected to get relatively close to the Carolina coast before being ejected out to sea (along with whatever remains of 99L) It has a good deal of convection though and past history with Fiona, so it also has a 30% chance to develop.

A fourth area, not tagged as an invest, is just offshore of the TX/LA border, but is just producing rain, only has a 10% chance to develop currently.



99L Event Related Links


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of 99L


stormplotthumb_8.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 99L (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 99L (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of 99L

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 99L
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 99L -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)


Miami Long Range Radar Recording for 99L
Florida Radar Recording for 99L

91L (Partially Ex-Fiona) Event Related Links


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of 91L


stormplotthumb_9.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 91L (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 91L (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of 91L

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 91L
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 91L -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)


Gaston Event Related Links


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Gaston


stormplotthumb_7.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Gaston (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Gaston (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of Gaston

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Gaston
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Gaston -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)


East Florida Links Southeast Composite Radar Loop (Latest Static) South to North:

Key West, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Miami, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Melbourne, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Jacksonville, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)


Caribbean/South East Coast Satellite Imagery


SFWMD Radar Loop of South Florida with storm Track


SFWMD Full Florida Radar Loop with Storm Track


Area Forecast Discussions: FLorida Keys - Miami/South Florida - Melbourne/East Central Florida - Jacksonville/Northeast Florida -

Northeast Gulf Links Southeast Composite Radar Loop (Latest Static)

Tampa Bay, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Key West, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Mobile, AL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Tallahassee FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Northwest Florida Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Gulf of Mexico Satellite Imagery

SFWMD Full Florida Radar (Includes east LA, MS,AL) Loop with Storm Track

Area Forecast Discussions: New Orleans - Mississippi/Alabama/Pensacola - Panhandle/Tallahassee - Tampa/West Central Florida

> Bahamas Media

Television & Radio:

ZNS Bahamas, Radio & TV

More 94 FM Bahamas


Newspapers:

Bahamas Tribune

Nassau Guardian

Bahamas B2B

The Abaconian - Abaco Island News

Freeport News

StormCarib Reports from the Caribbean Islands

Caribbean Weather Observations

Barbados Brohav Weather Fax

Caribbean Broadcast Corporation (TV/Radio from Antilles)

San Juan, PR Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Various Caribbean Radio Stations

DR1 Dominican Republic Hurricanes

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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 3888
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Re: Busy Map, Little Organization [Re: MikeC]
      #96657 - Sat Aug 27 2016 08:16 AM

91L is looking like it may go for a run for development today.

99L has a shot to get better organized today, broad center is south or just southwest of Andros island.


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Robert
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
Posts: 278
Loc: Southeast, FL
Re: Busy Map, Little Organization [Re: MikeC]
      #96658 - Sat Aug 27 2016 08:18 AM

How do i do radar recording just wondering?
Also if you could can we start a long Range miami recording,


Edited by Robert (Sat Aug 27 2016 08:19 AM)


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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
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Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Re: Busy Map, Little Organization [Re: Robert]
      #96660 - Sat Aug 27 2016 10:56 AM

Recordings are set up by us since its a custom system, i set one up for 2 Florida Radar Variants, the Cuba radar, and the floater sat. Image Recording Link

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Hawkeyewx
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sun
Posts: 99
Re: Busy Map, Little Organization [Re: MikeC]
      #96661 - Sat Aug 27 2016 11:14 AM

If the shear had been half the strength over the last few days, I have no doubt 99L would be a tropical storm. This morning it's not quite as bad and the convection is trying to catch up to the surface spin a bit, but it really has to reach the gulf before the shear becomes favorable. A few days ago the euro expected the Bahamas to be a favorable area, but it flat out failed to predict the development of 91L. There is an upper low associated with 91L that is digging into the Bahamas and is moving west in tandem with 99L.

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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
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Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Re: Busy Map, Little Organization [Re: Hawkeyewx]
      #96665 - Sat Aug 27 2016 01:05 PM

91L Has surprisingly good convection, a bit of an exposed center, but not bad, it may have a better shot to get going before 99L does, although 99L is starting to fire convection on the western side, which is a first.

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Hawkeyewx
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sun
Posts: 99
Re: Busy Map, Little Organization [Re: MikeC]
      #96666 - Sat Aug 27 2016 01:37 PM

Quote:

91L Has surprisingly good convection, a bit of an exposed center, but not bad, it may have a better shot to get going before 99L does, although 99L is starting to fire convection on the western side, which is a first.




I was just going to mention the band of convection that has now been able to fire up the west side of the broad surface center. Down by the Cuban coast, where the big convective blowup is, the shear is actually not bad. The cirrus blowoff from that convection is fanning out to the west and not being blown off to the east. The blowup is more along a line of convergence along the Cuban coast south of the center rather than over the center, but this system is more interesting today than the last couple day. The north half of the disturbance is still under the influence of dry, sinking air and shear, which will continue to make further organization difficult.


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Hawkeyewx
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sun
Posts: 99
Re: Busy Map, Little Organization [Re: Hawkeyewx]
      #96668 - Sat Aug 27 2016 03:40 PM

The heating of the day has led to an explosion of convection over Cuba. At the same time, much of the convection over water has vanished. It'll be interesting to see what happens tonight when the land-based convection presumably diminishes. Sunday night is when the latest euro and hwrf begin to develop this thing, as it is passing the keys. That's about the time when the shearing upper low north of 99L begins to slam on the brakes while 99L continues westward and tries to slip under the eastern gulf ridge.

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Owlguin
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 52
Re: Busy Map, Little Organization [Re: Hawkeyewx]
      #96670 - Sat Aug 27 2016 08:01 PM

Last few visible shots showed a good view of a pretty good circulation around 23/78 south of Andros.

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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: Busy Map, Little Organization [Re: Owlguin]
      #96671 - Sat Aug 27 2016 09:20 PM

That seems to be in the ballpark. The 00Z NHC position was 23.5N 79.0W.
ED


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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 3888
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Re: Busy Map, Little Organization [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #96673 - Sun Aug 28 2016 12:11 AM

99L is got a bit of a circulation going, and may even be closed, but it's still getting a bit of shear from the north and just too messy to really develop. Monday night things may clear up a bit (feels like moving the goalposts again, unfortunately). But it's still worth watching, new phase of tracking will occur when the system gets into the Gulf. It may linger there nearly all week, and still be a mess at the end of it.

The wildcard remains the hot water and the fact it's late August so things can change fairly rapidly.


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